Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis โ€“ Technical + Fundamental Outlook

107
Technical Outlook

Gold is currently trading inside a descending channel and has reached the midline, which is acting as dynamic resistance.

๐Ÿ“ Key Levels:

Resistance: 3310 โ€“ 3320 (aligned with the midline of the channel) โ€“ price has not yet confirmed a breakout above this zone

Next Bullish Targets: 3350 โ€“ 3358 / 3385 โ€“ 3390

Support Zone: 3270 โ€“ 3280 (potential bullish re-entry area)

๐ŸŸฃ All key price levels are marked on the chart with light purple lines for clarity.

๐ŸŸ  RSI is near 65, showing bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory, signaling a possible short-term pullback.

๐Ÿ” Likely scenario: A minor correction toward 3270โ€“3280 followed by continuation toward 3350+ if support holds.



Fundamental Context

The ISM Services PMI came in stronger than expected (51.6 vs. 50.2 forecast), reflecting economic resilience in the U.S. This typically supports the USD and weighs on gold, but:

  • Rising tariff threats from Trump raise recession concerns.
  • Services Prices Index rose to 65.1, signaling growing inflation pressures.
  • These inflation concerns may impact the Fedโ€™s upcoming rate decisions.
  • Central bank demand and geopolitical risks continue to support gold medium-term.




Summary
Despite being inside a descending channel, gold is showing short-term bullish strength. A confirmed break above 3320 could open the way toward 3350+. Otherwise, a pullback to the 3270โ€“3280 area may offer the next setup.



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