Weekly Outlook | XAUUSD June 30 – July 4, 2025

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Welcome to a new trading week. Let’s break down the gold chart from a clean, high-timeframe perspective. No setups, no noise – just structure, momentum, and zones that matter.

🌐 Macro Overview
This week concentrates all key USD events into one tight window:

Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Fed Chair Powell speech

Wednesday: ADP Employment

Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI

Friday: US holiday – markets closed

📌 This means liquidity and momentum will peak by Thursday, then fade into the weekend.
Expect gold to stay in range until macro data breaks direction.

🧠 Weekly Structure & Momentum
Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but price is hesitating below 3300.

Last two weekly candles printed long upper wicks with no body follow-through – clear sign of distribution, not continuation.

We’re still trading above the 21EMA Weekly, which maintains the uptrend’s integrity.

RSI (14): sitting at ~59 → no real momentum breakout, just consolidation.

📌 The chart is not reversing, but it’s also not trending anymore. We’re in a decision zone.

📍 Key Weekly Areas of Interest
3430 – 3500 → W1 Imbalance + March High Sweep
This is a wide weekly imbalance left unfilled since March, paired with the prior 2024 swing high. 3500 is also a psychological round number. If price pushes into this area, it becomes a liquidity target, not an entry – unless a clear rejection forms.

3330 – 3230 → Weekly Decision Block
This is the current consolidation range. It includes multiple W1 candle bodies, wick highs/lows, and volume cluster.
– Weekly close above 3330 = likely bullish continuation toward 3430+
– Weekly close below 3230 = confirms weakness and opens path to the next major support

3080 – 2970 → Weekly Demand + Fib 38%
Clean block of accumulation from April–May, aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 rally. This is where we’d expect institutional buying interest on a deeper pullback.
A weekly candle with a long wick into this zone + strong close would reset bullish structure.

2850 – 2720 → Last Macro Demand Zone
This zone includes the 50EMA weekly, a weekly FVG from late 2023, and unmitigated demand before the full 2024 breakout. If price ever gets here, we’re no longer in a healthy uptrend – we’re correcting structurally. But this zone will matter if that happens.

🧭 Summary & Expectations
Gold is still inside a large weekly range.
Until we break above 3330 or below 3230, it’s just consolidation on the HTF.

Thursday’s data will decide the candle.
Don’t predict direction — let the W1 close speak.

📌 Final Notes:

Above 3330 = room toward 3430–3500

Below 3230 = risk opens toward 3080–2970

Inside = no directional edge — stay reactive, not biased

🔥 If you enjoy this clean breakdown: hit that 🚀, follow & drop your thoughts below!
Stay sharp traders — we execute with precision.
— GoldFxMinds

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