3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6, THIS WEEK JUST CHECKED OUT for OANDA:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6, THIS WEEK JUST CHECKED OUT

We are in vol compression. It's going to be a slow sideways to up week.

1) can this be any more late?
2) in theory, four more days of compression
3) means price has no choice but to go up
4) I have no doubt now that this 2750 high lands 8/07 or 8/16
5) I am going to Chicago
6) see you next Monday

Note

8:54 PM, The BBs are tightening quickly.
7) if this going to move any faster...
8) move first, and I'll update
9) other wise nothing until this Friday but I won't be back until Monday

Note

7/1, 12:56 AM ET, even more compression now:

Note

Note

1) for chart above
2) it's 2322
3) this is a bit too weak for this box
4) be aware

Note

July 1st, 1:01 PM 35, 2327.74 and more vol compression.
1) all that means is not much is happening
2) Monday is basically over for New York
3) we have only Tuesday, which right now doesn't look like it's going anywhere
4) despite all the gold bull talk, globally speaking, this cycle has been driven by American buyers
5) Wed is half-day bc NY closes 12-1:30 PM depending what/where you trade
6) Thursday is closed for 7/4
7) and Friday everybody comes back hungover from booze and fireworks
8) event drivers?

Note

9) Powell speaks tomorrow, Williams speaks Wed
10) Wed is ADP, initial claims, ISM
11) and everybody's favorite NFP is Friday
12) trend maps have slowed to a craw
13) if you play this chart from "THE CALL" or DRAFT 5:

Note

14) price is weaker than even this draft... this somewhat important
15) THERE IS A LIGHT BLUE DASHED LINE THAT IS HOLDING BACK THE MOVE UP
16) what is that line?

Note

66) in chart above I turned the rest of it off so you can see just the very fine details
67) last night, 2 hours into DRAFT 5-E, I called "vol compression"
68) bc I had enough to know WHAT SHAPE RED WAVE WILL TAKE
69) but that's all that's knowable
70) some times it appears like I now what price will do (especially live all the time)
71) and THIS IS HOW
72) but PRICE IS THE FIRST, SECOND, LAST, AND FINAL DETERMINANT OF EVERYTHING
73) ALL THE WAVES ARE JUST DERIVATIVES OF PRICE WITH VARYING PERIODIC VALUE
74) and you use the entire picture to value what price is going to do ..
75) so:

Note

7/1, 3:19 PM ET, to sum it all up:'

Note

80) back to regular TA, those 3 lines, the dashed blue line and 2 break out lines in chart above...
81) is the signal for evrything
82) next check of the TOP LINE IS EXPECTED TO FAIL AND DROP BACK INTO THAT BOX
83) BUT STARTING WED 10 AM ET AFTER ADP (and initial claims, ISM, Williams)...
84) we MUST BE ABOVE IT THE REST OF THE WAY
85) in order to be in rally position BEFORE NFP
86) and have enough padding for any remaining 2-way vol swings before all of this is resolved
87) end of this Friday

Note

88) and chart above (not that different from chart at top)
87) is what you should get

Note

90) typo, that should be 89..
91) and 1 MORE THING TO REMEMBER
92) if you trade futures/forex
93) MARKETS CLOSE 12:00, 1:30 PM ON WED 7/3
94) but FED MINUTES COME OUT 2:00 PM if it's 2350-2355 before Fed minutes
95) that's ALREADY COMPRESSION CEILING
96) which is 20 POINT BINARY BOTH DIRECTIONS

Note

97) normally, for this setup...
98) if you are at 2350-55 at compression ceiling
99) trend would make the 20 pt jump to 2375 the obvious favorite
100) IF MARKET WAS OPEN, yes that would be true
101) they just decided to close everything by 1:30, which makes it seems VERY ODD (or CONVENIENT, which are synonyms for long vs short)
102) bc they move up initial claims from 7/4 to 7/3
103) so why not move Fed minutes up 2 hours
104) that seems like something people would want to know more about
105) than weekly initial claims (yeah, they moved this up)
106) but oddities in and of themselves are not conspiratorial
107) just like when Harvey Lee Oswald shot JFK ON LIVE TELEVISION, all by himself, with no particular reason
108) and doesn't even have anything to gain from doing it
109) and denied any responsibility
110) and right before he was to be captured by authorities
111) was shot on LIVE TELEVISION by night club owner Jack Ruby
112) all by himself, without any particular reason, and didn't even have anything to gain
113) and then Jack Ruby was convicted and given a death penalty
114) his legal counsel appealed and he was given a new trial
115) and while he was waiting for a new trial
116) developed cancer and died of a blood clot in his lungs
117) this was definitely very odd or convenient, depending on whether one was...
118) long or short JFK presidency
119) but I digress...
120) that's a wrap from me until Friday
121) I will add notes before/after NFP and be back on Monday

Note

9:04 PM, I think we have to break some compression here.
a) something has to give
b) let's see what it is

Note

9:17 PM
c) no, nothing has to give
d) just a bit less compression

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11:00 PM, back to more compression.

Note

a) right around 2333
b) more specifically 28-38
c) and not moving anywhere quickly

Note

11:14 PM, 2328.XX this drop to and IF ANYTHING UNDER 2328...
d) MUST BE A BUY
e) with the caveat that it may not move for 24 hours

Note

f) 11:56 26.xx for scalpers, max pain is 22.25-ish
g) this is where pattern beats trend
h) not supposed to go to 22 says trend
i) but pattern may not care

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7/2, 12/23 AM ET 25.5 looks like it may hold, good night.

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12:44 AM ET, on my end, this tag of 2325.5 is sort of an important event.
a) sort of like a mini washout
b) but we're still in compression so, I don't know what to make of it

Note

2:56 AM, THIS DRAFT IS FINISHED, HERE IS 6B

3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6B - COMPRESSION SHOULD BREAK SOON

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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