Gold, shocks are not continuous
Updated
Regarding gold, on Friday, it formed a doji candlestick at the bottom. On one hand, it followed the cyclic "Black Friday" pattern (typically, market sentiment is low on Fridays, and institutions use minimal chips to influence market trends), leading to a decline. On the other hand, it also moved within a small range, allowing for profits on both selling and buying positions.
Last week's overall market trend can be described as chip cleansing. After breaking the bottom, the price quickly rebounded, but it failed to break above the resistance level at 1970.
The rhythm of the D-line, which was previously in an upward trend, has recently shown some weakness. This is due to excessive tests of the support level and the formation of consecutive bearish candlesticks on the D-line. The resistance level at 1970 has been tested multiple times, as well as the support level at 1940. Although there were breakouts, the closing prices did not fall below those levels.
In last week's market, I emphasized an important point: range breakouts.
A breakout within a range does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a bearish trend when it breaks below the 1970-1930 range. It could actually lead to a rebound and an upward movement. Similarly, a breakout above 1970 does not necessarily indicate the start of an upward trend; it could be a deceptive move. Therefore, it is not reasonable to determine the direction solely based on range breakouts at the moment.
From a weekly chart perspective, this correction near the previous starting point still shows a doji candlestick pattern, suggesting support for an upward movement rather than indicating weakness. A weak pattern would involve a large bearish candle or a close below the bottom, rather than a doji candlestick.
However, on the daily chart, the range oscillation continues, but we shouldn't consider it as a continuous trend.
Let's take Friday's trend as an example. Although there was an initial rise followed by a decline, the intraday hourly chart consistently showed bullish candles, especially during the pre-US session. If we consider the trend as continuous, it would indicate an upward movement during the US session. However, due to the lack of continuity, the trend ended up being an initial rise followed by a decline.
An upward movement can only be profitable within the intraday layout, while a second short position after the suppression in the US market can also be profitable. It becomes challenging to interpret the trend if we assume continuity.
As for today, the closing price is near the low point of the previous day's correction, suggesting a sideways movement based on the current price. There is a higher probability of a breakout in the European session.
This is related to the lack of continuity within the intraday trend. If we expect an upward movement, there should at least be an intraday retracement, which would increase the likelihood of testing the low during the US session.
Therefore, specific trading positions will not be provided for the European market today. There are no appropriate patterns for analysis in terms of buying or selling.
It's best to analyze the pattern in the European market and make positioning decisions based on the US market.
Last week's overall market trend can be described as chip cleansing. After breaking the bottom, the price quickly rebounded, but it failed to break above the resistance level at 1970.
The rhythm of the D-line, which was previously in an upward trend, has recently shown some weakness. This is due to excessive tests of the support level and the formation of consecutive bearish candlesticks on the D-line. The resistance level at 1970 has been tested multiple times, as well as the support level at 1940. Although there were breakouts, the closing prices did not fall below those levels.
In last week's market, I emphasized an important point: range breakouts.
A breakout within a range does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a bearish trend when it breaks below the 1970-1930 range. It could actually lead to a rebound and an upward movement. Similarly, a breakout above 1970 does not necessarily indicate the start of an upward trend; it could be a deceptive move. Therefore, it is not reasonable to determine the direction solely based on range breakouts at the moment.
From a weekly chart perspective, this correction near the previous starting point still shows a doji candlestick pattern, suggesting support for an upward movement rather than indicating weakness. A weak pattern would involve a large bearish candle or a close below the bottom, rather than a doji candlestick.
However, on the daily chart, the range oscillation continues, but we shouldn't consider it as a continuous trend.
Let's take Friday's trend as an example. Although there was an initial rise followed by a decline, the intraday hourly chart consistently showed bullish candles, especially during the pre-US session. If we consider the trend as continuous, it would indicate an upward movement during the US session. However, due to the lack of continuity, the trend ended up being an initial rise followed by a decline.
An upward movement can only be profitable within the intraday layout, while a second short position after the suppression in the US market can also be profitable. It becomes challenging to interpret the trend if we assume continuity.
As for today, the closing price is near the low point of the previous day's correction, suggesting a sideways movement based on the current price. There is a higher probability of a breakout in the European session.
This is related to the lack of continuity within the intraday trend. If we expect an upward movement, there should at least be an intraday retracement, which would increase the likelihood of testing the low during the US session.
Therefore, specific trading positions will not be provided for the European market today. There are no appropriate patterns for analysis in terms of buying or selling.
It's best to analyze the pattern in the European market and make positioning decisions based on the US market.
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Nearly identical to the chart we drew
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