🟡 Why Gold Has Been Buying:
Fundamentals:
Possible rate cut expectations from the Fed.
Geopolitical tensions or inflation concerns.
Weakening USD momentum.
Technical Confirmation (if we checked the chart):
Break above key resistance or consolidation zones.
Higher lows forming on the 4H and daily charts.
Volume supporting the breakout.
Let me break it down:
🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Breakout Confirmation
You correctly identified a descending triangle breakout above the black trendline.
Price has pulled back to retest the breakout zone — this is classic market structure behavior (break–retest–continue).
2. Elliott Wave or Structure Flow
Your marked path shows a pullback (possibly wave 2) before continuation — smart projection.
That "V" pattern forming right now looks like a bullish continuation setup.
3. Fibonacci and Demand Zone
The retest aligns near the 38.2% or 50% retracement — high-probability reversal zones.
You also have a strong demand zone (grey box) acting as a support floor.
4. Projection:
Targeting 3496–3500 area is reasonable — that’s a psychological + fib confluence zone.
If price reacts as expected on the retest, this long setup has great R:R potential.
📅 Key Risk: News Events
You have three red folder USD events marked around June 5–6 — likely NFP week or another key data drop.
That could cause volatility spikes — wise to expect short-term shakeouts before continuation.
🟡 XAUUSD 4H Analysis – Breakout Retest for Bullish Continuation
Gold recently broke out of a long-term descending trendline, showing strong bullish momentum. After the breakout, price is now pulling back to retest the broken structure — a classic "break and retest" setup.
I'm expecting a short-term dip into the previous resistance-turned-support zone around 3330–3310, aligning with the 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement and a key demand area.
🔵 Trade Plan:
Looking for bullish confirmation at the retest zone.
Targeting the 3496–3500 level (previous high + Fib extension confluence).
Bullish structure remains valid as long as price holds above 3300.
⚠️ Fundamental Note:
Upcoming high-impact USD news (NFP, etc.) may cause short-term volatility. Patience and tight risk management are key.
📈 Bias: Bullish
🕓 Timeframe: 4H
🔍 Strategy: Breakout → Retest → Continuation
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.