3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6B - COMPRESSION SHOULD BREAK SOON for OANDA:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6B - COMPRESSION SHOULD BREAK SOON

We are in too much compression now. So once it gives, it won't hold previous compression pattern. While this is not the most complete draft, it's way better than last one.

1) the biggest concern right now is the two arrows
2) they represent short term trend crossover
3) that forces short term mean reversion
4) as opposed to long term mean reversion
5) long story short, we're break this sideways move very soon

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2:58 AM, 2331.XX

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6) we should really get to 2350 by tonight
7) that is in 18 hours
8) in chart above, if bulls force the blue wave to twist early
9) then they can get there before NY close

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3:15 AM, 2326.30, again a buy.

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3:18 AM, 2324.50 on IDC ticker, again, a buy.

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3:27 AM, still 24.50 after tagging 23.25.
a) this of course right at 3:00 AM
b) I should've waited until 3:30 to publish
c) I knew better than that
d) just forgot it was 3:00 AM

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3:52 AM 2328.55
a) so despite the 3:00 AM LBMA rugpull
b) its still not too late to twist that wave up
c) it's just harder to do, but doable with this position

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4:01 AM, EXCELLENT RESPONSE TO LBMA RUGPULL, 2331.19...
a) so yeah, blue wave still twist-able right here
b) what tdoes that means?
c) the blue wave was ready to go down
d) and the LMBA 3AM RUGPULL almost did its job,
e) but this move back to 2331 is keeping that wave from turning down
f) this leaves the 2350 option for NY''s afternoon

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4:18 AM, 2331.75, all this gotta to do is get to to 34-35 to keep the window for 50 and more open for next 24 hours.
a) it's almost there
b) I'm going to bed

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c) by the way, sometimes almost takes like 5 hours

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d) it's 4:40 am, next 80 min is crucial if bulls want to move today
e) STAYING UNDER 30 NEXT 80 MIN WILL MAKE IT REALLY HARD TO MOVE TODAY

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5:09 AM ET, 2331.XX, HERE'S WHAT I SEE TODAY:
1) I think we break 2333 this morning and that means 2337 and 2343 are both automatic
2) what is not automatic is 2350
3) its either late New York or Tokyo, but definitely before London
4) so what happens past 2350, well there's 2365
5) that's definitely a Wednesday move or overnight into July 4th
6) its pretty much impossible to get past 2367
7) the compression here is just ridiculous but we will smash through this to 2380s
8) after NFP
9) MORE OR LESS LIKE CHART AT TOP

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5:49 AM 2325.XX third time since midnight
1) any changes?
2) not really, NY might be stuck at 40 instead of 43
3) that's it
4) stop and wait it out before going back in at 2323

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6:12, this second move to 2323 killed the blue wave
1) so it can't turn early
2) so it has to turn late
3) but watch 2323, under that is dangerous

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6:43 AM ET 2325.xx so bears took away early route
4) how late is late route
5) if its not today, its tomorrow
6) bc trend maps have us in rally position on Friday which is 2350 ish
7) so in chart above, it would follow to THE RIGHT SIDE of yellow hi-light
8) otherwise, no change

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7:11 AM 25.X17, rest of today is a big deal
1) a really big deal
2) bulls can build the necessary momentum to guarantee 2750 in early August
3) why I personally have no doubt, the vertical rally setup has not completed
4) but can with a move to 2350

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5) but bears have one more card they can play to buy time
6) let's see how much time

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7) at 7:23 and 2323.xx as I type, bears can delay the move to 2400 by one more week
8) but this is only in theory
9) I don't even know it's doable
10) it would be between 2320 -2360 for an entire week of zig zag
11) but in theory, that is the one card they have left
12) which pushes the 2750 high into 8/22
13) but we will find out a lot today

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7:44, 2321.xx, bears have done enough to push this move to tomorrow.
a) rejected the breakout twice
b) and holding under 2323
c) as long as it's under 2323, bears can hold off break out

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8:04 AM 2321.XX, now there is a knot of trends at 2328.xx
a) until this resolves, this thig is NOT GOING ANYWHERE FAR FROM 2328
b) we're going to need at least 8 hours to 2 days, which puts into Thursday

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9:04 AM, I thought we had the channel ready.
a) we don't have a channel
b) bears can push this break out into NEXT FRIDAY
c) the current setup for this Friday is still live
d) but whereas it was ready for break out
e) now it's in developing mode
f) this could be fixed later today
g) OR NOT...
h) I need something concrete to go on
i) but the 2700 high is moving closer to 8/22 by by the hour
j) it cannot move past that
k) it would simply be all over

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l) so at 8:25 and 23.xx, we will know a lot more by 1 PM

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8:55, how was that 9:04? ago?
m) it's only 8:55 now, any way it's 2328.xx
n) like I said, knot at 28
o) now what?
p) I'm not really surprised that bears came in to f up the break out move
q) what I am surprised with is where we go from here?
r) it's not impossible to get that position back
s) but bulls need to do a lot more
t) like close above 2342
u) it's only 14 points, you never know
v) but right now, we are back in compression, except worse with a knot
w) AND NO CHANNEL
x) until we have something to go on, we don't have anything

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y) and no, we're not going down, that's even harder from here
z) why am I so confident about that?
1) you have to believe that gold bull market is dead
2) you have to be totally convinced
3) with fundamentals, blah blah
4) if you are not
5) we are much closer to launch then most people - all the effin experts of TV included - realize
6) we are talking 14 points to get you to guarantee 2700s in August
7) and if bears want to do something THEY FIRST HAVE TO STRETCH THE CALENDAR
8) while it's obvious that the launch this Friday is now in much doubt
9) its virtually assured for the week following that
10) unless Congress all of a sudden went peak austerity
11) cut medicare, military, social security, food stamps, healthcare.gov
12) NONE OF THAT IS REMOTELY HAPPENING
13) just give it 2 days, it'll look way different

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9:18 AM, the only that makes sense here is a move for 2352
1) today
2) if not that
3) then stall around 2328
4) and do 2352 tomorrow
5) but it's not obvious to me that would work...
6) it would for sure put the move past 2380 INTO NEXT WEEK

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9:33 AM ET, 2329.xx so my buddy Ordinary-Human just asked if I see it going under 2319?
a) and I said no I still see 2350s next
b) but I just don't know how price is going to make the move
c) bc it has made itself a knot at 2328
d) and the setup (within reason) for 2350s today is gone
e) so if it doesn't I, it's going to have to be some very irregular move
f) bc I haven't seen price "break a knot like this" in a short time
g) it's not impossible, I've just never seen it

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h) but context matters bc the OVERALL picture still say 2350s today
i) to get into 2380s end of Friday
j) if you don't go to 2350s today
k) it gets really complicated, bc it's not a simple "one day delay"
l) bc you don't know if all the waves are in sync
m) THEY HAVE TO BE IN SYNC
n) THEY ARE NOT IN SYNC FOR BREAK OUT MOVES ALL THE TIME
o) just every now and then

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p) so if we miss this Friday
q) there should only be one sync window end of next week
r) Thursday or Friday and it would all be over if we miss next week too

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9:43, and 2333.xx, so 37 is easy
1) that's bc the knot is dead center between 2337 and 2319
2) its going to stall at 2337
3) and the question becomes, what next?
4) the only way that I can think of ...
5) and this is just theory, I have never seen this wave structure get resolved this quickly
6) would be a strong move up with high 2-way vol
7) for ex: hitts 37, sell off, 43, sell off 52, sell off, 52 again
8) but all before midnight

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10:00 so 37, check, sell off hard check
a) now pull itself together
b) and push for 43 and sell off hard again

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10:17, 2327.xx and about to wrap 28 again.
c) needs to wind up for 43 and sell off same way
d) this puts twists in the waves that need them "to be complete"
e) then push for 52
f) all of that would take all of New York's time
g) if not, be stuck at 28 and going nowhere quickly

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10:45, 24.xx, the floor to watch for risk is 2323. I am going to sleep.

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11:49, 2325.xx, we are running out of time to make this setup happen

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12:03, 2323.79, DRAFT 6 PROBABLY DEAD
1) earlier I spoke of bears having 1 card to play
2) this is both their last card and also bulls last extension
3) for "2750 in August (and extension to 3000 by Halloween"
4) this starts with sideways ALL THE WAY TO 7/12

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5) there's no more extending after this
6) this is simultaneously bears' last move to delay the rally
7) and bulls last possible route to continue the bull market
8) and first is sideways to next Friday
9) the "ceiling" drops to 2340
10) the floor probably have to drop too, but not too much

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11) the most bearish check down tin this scenario is 2300
12) it does not have to be, but it can be
13) all you have to do is watch 2319
14) until now, I have been sure the entire way that this bull market lives
15) while that's still the favorite it's stupid now to not consider the bear outcome
16) which is a move under 2248 next
17) so while sideways to next Friday's launch is base case
18) be aware of the possbility that this may all be over

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29) so the likely range of prices for rest of this week is 2320-2340
30) and for next week is 2330-2350
31) so to 7/12, it sis 2320-2350
32) this is the last opportunity for trends to sync for a rally

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12:45 PM and the next 12 hours decides if bears have a shot at pushing the floor down closer to 2300.
a) if current sharp down trend line holds bears move down 10 pts from here
b) it's 2323 now, so 2313
c) conversely if current down trend breaks, bulls move up 10 to 2333
d) and this would virtually "LOCK" THE 2320 TO 2350 ZONE TO 7/12
e) that's it
f) first that gets decided
g) then the the next step is exactly how much zig zag to launch
h) right now I have nothing to go on

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12:57 PM, NY closes in 3hours and bulls have a 40% chance of closing above 2330
a) does that do anything for us?
b) no
c) it's really difficult now, to make a break out and setup the move FOR THIS FRIDAY
d) so 2333 close would do nothing but lock the the 2320-2350 zone to 7/12
e) close aftermarket in 4 hours with 2340?... that keeps some options open
f) but its not even on the radar right now
g) THIS POST HAS ENDED, THERE IS NO NEXT ONE UNTIL I SEE a guarantee of 2750 by 8/23

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2:35 PM I don't have a guarantee, but I have it down to 3 dates (for blast off)
1) there are four scenarios that can play out from here to 7/12
2) most likely is a BLAST OFF ON TUESDAY 7/9
3) second most likely is a BLAST OFF ON THURSDAY 7/11
4) third most likely is a BLAST OFF ON THIS FRIDAY 7/5
5) and the least likely outcome is prices break down and head under 2250
6) the deciding factor is price action for next 3 days

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THIS POST HAS ENDED, BC IT'S TIME TO DIE BEARS! HERE'S NEXT ONE:

3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6C, DIE BEARS, TIME TO DIE!

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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