01/24 RALLY 2280-2360 EXECUTION PART 3 for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

01/24 RALLY 2280-2360 EXECUTION PART 3

WARNINGS FOR PEOPLE THAT ALWAYS NEED THEM - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - NOT REPLACE - your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, JUST SCRAP THE FORECAST AND TRADE DEFENSIVELY. As before, remember that there is AN ACTUAL TRADINGVIEW LIMIT on how many updates I can post. Furthermore, I am only posting this for my regular audience only, who want them and know what to do with them. I am not here to hold your hand and walk you through this. If you haven't read my work for three months, I repeat, this is REALLY not for you. Are we clear?

SUMMARY - This is the 01/07/24, daily binary, 15-min bar, 120-hour generic, 48-hour ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. As stated in PART 1, this type of forecast I will publish once or twice daily to end of January when the overall rally and correction pattern will complete. I am publishing these to manage expectations for the 01/24 RALLY to 2280-2360 as a whole. If you use them any other way, that is on you.

DETAILS - This draft has everything in PART 2's chart, notes, and improvements on one easily accessible chart. Light blues are bull routes from PART 1, oranges are edited bear routes from PART 1, grays make up fastest way to 2105 WITHOUT an event/news driver, and finally DARK BLUES MAKE UP BASE CASE RIGHT NOW because this is still a Sunday night move but statistically much more realistic than gray route. For more background, read previous draft in links section.

JANUARY 10TH TO MARCH 8TH TIMELINE - I've talked about this for 20 months now. Again, if you are defensive nature, we're still three days from January 10th. You can simply wait to eliminate as much risk as possible.

Note

01/07, 2:30 PM ET, I'll be live from 6 PM OPEN TO 3 AM ET.
a) in PART 2 I've stated the differences between a move tonight, Monday or Tuesday
b) so dark blue for tonight is PLAN A and light blue for Monday morning IS PLAN B
c) if both tonight and tomorrow morning is sideways to 2045 again?
d) skip Tuesday and Wednesday, wait for Thursday morning

Note

4:21 PM ET TYPOS...
a) forgive them but here we go...
b) in DETAILS section, "Light blues are bull routes from PART 2..." not PART 1
c) "oranges are edited bear routes from PART 2..." again not PART 1

4:23 PM ET 01/19 VS 01/24 third high
a) with the exception of gray route playing out
b) that is the fastest most aggressive route to 2105 by Monday morning...
c) everything is pointing to 01/18 for second leg high at roughly 2200
d) and 01/24 for third leg high that is 2280-2355

Note

e) so in PART 1 where I discussed 2 possible routes for this rally
f) odds really favor the longer and higher one
g) again barring gray route from chart at top playing out, that would shift odds in a big way

Note

6:10 PM HERE'S 8-MIN BAR REGRESSION MAP

a) if gray route we need evidence by in 50 minutes or by 7:00 PM
b) if dark blue we need evidence by 8:30 PM

Note

6:27 PM ET, Let's just kill gray route now:

a) in chart above:

Note

b) I don't think it's gray route
c) why?
d) bc that much strength wouldn't let things like "wave order" on 1, 2, 4 min bars...
e) stop it from spike 5-10 pts out of nowhere to "reset wave order" immediately
f) if it's going to happen there needs to be at least some clue now at 6:30 and no clue right now
g) so dark blue route is my call
h) first though:

Note

i) so here's 30 second bars:

Note

j) the raw numbers say that this move by 9:00 PM ET will win ti for dark blue route
k) there's 2 ways this happens...
l) like the very dark blue hi-light WITH NO DIP TO 1940
m) or like the thin zig-path that checks down but "should" have a spike the other way to correct the waves for small bars..
n) so at 6:39 PM ET as I type and 2043.xx that's the move we need to see
o) 2050-52 by 9:00 PM ET

Note

p) ok so this zone from here to 9 maybe 10 PM is the most difficult part for dark blue route
q) but if price JUST STAYS HERE AT 2044 for another 90 minutes straight AND DO NOTHING
r) it's favored to win the first the move to 2055
s) make it to 2055 and it's strongly favored to make the second move and break 2064
t) and that's all dark blue needs to "win the next 7 trading days"
u) I spent last few hours running raw numbers on it and dark blue is so "correct for all the curves" that it would be a major disappointment IF IT DIDN'T HAPPEN ...
v) so it's 6:58 PM ET and we will know soon

Note

w) it's soooo hard to make ALL THE WAVES AGREE this much on a route for 7 days
x) like you have no idea ...
y) so that's why my call is dark blue route

Note

z) by the way, excluding mlk day, next 7 trading days means all the way to wed 01/17

Note

01/07, 8:51 PM ET, 2043.XX
a) I'm about to cut it here and wait for tomorrow morning
b) dark blue route has everything going for it, and couldn't move an extra 9 pts
c) so we're at the edge of dark blue route failing
d) all we have left is light blue route
e) and entry for that is tomorrow morning

Note

f) this is a really bad sign for bulls overall because there's only one decent route left
g) and it's not a great one either

Note

9:55 PM ET 2041.XX
a) in PART 2 I said Monday is a do or die scenario for this rally
b) why?
c) because the trends start to disagree on should happen
d) you can only get strong price action when the trends agree
e) when they reach a point of disagreement you can't get strong price action in either direction
f) what you get is a zig zag market UNTIL THE trends line up to for a big move in either direction
g) we are less than 16 hours from this breakout setup disappearing
h) let's see how long it would take to build it back up

Note

i) for chart above
j) so let's say we break that cup and make a handle
k) do all the trends still agree
l) cold day in hell BUT LET'S SAY THEY WILL...
m) the first cut is in March ...
n) the strategy has ALWAYS been...
o) long gold into the first cut...
p) by that time the first cut is over

Note

10:09 PM ET I'm not a fan of do or die scenarios, meaning last possible moment for something to happen.
a) the best trades, start off well at the very beginning
b) that's another old rule
c) when I edited for the dark blue route
d) what I realized was that that was the last route when all trends are "in sync"
e) so 14 hours later they are out of sync?
f) not totally but you to have to deal with this now:

Note

g) it starts to look ugly
h) miss Monday and it's much much worse
i) so Im tired of waiting for it
j) I want to see that entire first move and retrace
k) then I'll decide if I still want to to get in

Note

01/08, 12:36 AM ET, NOW 2 DAYS FROM 01/10, 2029.40 as I type...
a) so Monday is obviously the last day...
b) and now the curves demand 70+pt move Monday to correct the bearish action in order to REGAIN BULLISH POSTURE
c) and that's on Monday, not, let's wait until Tuesday...
d) so the regressions break down say that unless we get a move from 2028 as I type
e) to something like at least 2095 before New York closes... it's over for bull thesis
f) and I'm going be up tonight.. to chart this thing
g) NOT TO TRADE IT .. but to chart what is actually REQUIRED for this happen
h) why would I do that?
i) I've been waiting basically 8 years for it
j) even if won't come, I want to know on the last day what that means...

Note

12:53 AM ET 2030.65 after 2027.xx
a) the first correction needs to be 2047 at 4 am
b) if this doesn't happen, things get REALLY complicated
c) I'm just saying this for the record DO NOT make a trade bc I said that.. ok?

Note

1:03 AM ET AND GOT IT...
a) one of these two things should happen here
b) bc it is set for both now
c) all it needs is volume ... which tends to start showing at 3 AM ...
d) there's NO EVENT NEWS TOMORROW...
e) so the only thing is the 7:30 AM TIME (the machines do it regardless of news or not bc that's how they are programmed)
f) so see you in the morning

Note

9:45 AM ET so we are now and we need a fresh map from small bars

a) bc bearish pattern has time limits too
b) meaning if they are not on time then it's stuck at 2020

Note

9:54 AM TO EXPLAIN THIS POINT FROM EARLIER
>> 12:53 AM ET 2030.65 after 2027.xx
>> a) the first correction needs to be 2047 at 4 am
>> b) if this doesn't happen, things get REALLY complicated
>> c) I'm just saying this for the record DO NOT make a trade bc I said that.. ok?
1) this meant that bulls NEED TO BE AT 2047 AT 4 AM or it will get worse for them
2) but that DOES NOT MEAN GO LONG UNTIL 4 AM
3) I didn't want that to be misunderstood as a recommendation to go long
4) because I was out at 2043 as I said earlier and I didn't have a trade on

Note

10:06 AM 2029, I think bears missed their window, but I am not done with the odds so I am not announcing that
a) so I need confirm their window has closed
b) and what that means from here
c) but this will take a couple of hours that by the time I"m done, if bulls make it to 2035
d) it maybe obvious already

Note

10:14 AM 2029, here's what I do know
a) bulls have comeback routes
b) bears need to to kill those routes
c) bears not "showing interest in killing those routes"
d) or bears not "trying to shut the door on possible comeback"
e) so we are in a gray area
f) this may clear up today, or may take 3 days to clear up

Note

11:00 AM 2035.XX is it this a start of a come back?
a) no it just means sideways is favored
b) bulls need 2047 today first to start the comeback
c) their best window for this is.... now
d) there is a second window Tuesday into Wed
e) but late moves always a big underdog especially compared to an early move
f) I am not in any of this
g) but I do want to see 2047 in an hour two

Note

h) hour or two
i) again, don't know if its favored bc this part of the zig zag can pause and go either
j) direction

Note

11:12 AM IF BULLS ARE SERIOUS THEY NEED THIS:
a) and probably more than this
b) but to to have the discussion at at all
c) this needs to happen:
d)

Note

e) so in chart above
f) bulls need 2047-50 where sellers are ALREADY WAITING
g) bulls NEED THAT BY NY CLOSE...
h) miss this window and the comeback odds - whatever they are - get cut 2/3 or 3/4
i) all extrapolations show a retest overnight
j) so bulls need 2047-50 and NEED IT AGAIN TOMORROW BY OPEN
k)in order to have a shot for 2088 late Tuesday or early Wednesday

Note

11:44 AM ET binary for next 24-36 hours:

a) first, a comeback route is not the same as a break out route
b) by definition, bulls would be underdog to pull it off
c) so if bulls are strong they they dark blue route
d) I hate light blue route here bc it has sooo many opportunities FOR BEARS to destroy it
e) orange route is bears' shut the door, kill the comeback move
f) and that's it for today

Note

12:08 AM ET
a) dark blue route about to die
b) so here comes moment of truth at the the close
c) more so for bears if they want continuation:

Note

d) bc trends are mixed now, so sideways would be favorite until something happens to change that

Note

01/08 1:49 PM ET, 2 DAYS UNTIL 01/10-03/08 ZONE
a) if this was any other point, I would've called bull market dead already
b) but it's not
c) there's one reason left and it's not bc I've been calling for Jan 10- March 8 for 20 months
d) it's bc the long term setup is strong enough to 'not require and exact break out setup down to the short term regressions like they always require
e) another way of saying there is one more route left for bulls
f) but the risk approach is different now regardless of that
g) in English?
1) we have to wait to get the whole first move first'
2) and the leveraged entry becomes just regular entry

Note

3) don't worry about leverage
4) if we get the move, we will have several real and reliable opportunities here in next 60 days

Note

01/08/2:55 PM ET... 2028.55 READ THIS CAREFULLY BEFORE YOU DO THIS:
1) I am tired from tailing routes and missing for 3 weeks
2) that's the real reason why I am conservative here
3) I'd rather just see the move first and take regular entry at leverage entry
4) but the correct call is to go long at 2028
5) am too wary right now to recommend it
6) so go long with a tight stop, that's what I am doing
7) my stop is 2026

Note

8) I have a regular position no leverage
9) and if it gets hit, I willl try again a second time BUT NOT A THIRD

Note

10) bc swing r/r is very much in bulls favor right now
11) but I am gun shy so I watch and trail my stops

Note

3:12 PM 2027.45 EXIT ALREADY
12) why so quick?
13) the possible vol is more than I want to risk
14) so I'm out and NOT TRYING AGAIN

Note

4:02 PM 2027.55 NOW IS RIGHT CALL
1) entry with 2024 stop
2) that should not hit
3) if it does worth trying again
4) this really feels like do or die here
5) bc the waves get REALLY out of position if the move is not tonight
6) again, if you are defensive just wait until late wed or /thursday

Note

7) i can't stress that part enough
8) if you are defensive or you don't have time to watch it abit
9) wait until late Wed or Thursday

Note

5:06 PM so I am still looking for this:

a) in chart above, basically the same type of move for the last couple of weeks
b) AGAIN, I'm stressing that if you are defensive, WAIT UNTIL LATE WED OR EARLY THURSDAY
c) that's 1/10 PM or 1/11 AM
d) by that time it'll be 100% obvious what we are going to et
e) plus price has rejected the last 3 setups for this move already
f) this is another legit setup, but just fail same as before
g) so if you are getting in pick a tight stop and watch it
h) we will know in 12 hours or less if its leg or it fails
i) it has to about midnight to start moving, once started has to be steady
k) and again, has to reverse down by WED PM or THURS AM

Note

l) typo on f) ... but "can" just fail same as the ones before

Note

7:52 PM ET 2034.XX, ok it's just a tad earlier than I thought, so...
a) a buddy of mine said earlier if it breaks 2036 it's moving up now
b) I didn't think so bc I didn't see it until maybe 11 PM ...
c) but we're here now so, it is 2055 if it moves now....
d) but it will be too fast for its waves
e) SO IF YOU ARE UP AND SEE IT GO FOR 2055 by say 10 PM ET, 3 hours from now
f) you may want to sidestep a check down
g) before it heads higher after midnight
h) I gotta get some sleep in

Note

i) in English that means if it's 2055 soon, it should be 2040 before 2055 again
j) that's what the math says
k) the math has also been terrible for 3 weeks so that's not saying a lot
l) but that's what its saying

Note

9:40 PM 35.50, not moving a lot, I bumped my stop to 32.5 and going to bed

Note

01/09 12:17 AM - alarm woke me up and here's what going on:

a) very light blue left side is what I saw earlier...
b) but warned that you should wait if you are defensive
c) so I got hit at 32.5, I am already back in and my stop is 2025
d) not because I think I need it, but bc I am willing to risk it
e) so ...

Note

f) the very light blue from earlier is not happening
g) what I am more sure of is WE WILL GET THIS MOVE
h) odds favor the high to be late Wednesday or early Thursday
i) with the gray route as WEAK HIGH an underdog to to the 2090 high
j) in all scenarios we close the week at 2090 again
k) there's also a small chance price outperform all of this, I just doubt it bc
l) there's no event driver to make that push
m) even though that setup exists
o) that's all the good news
...
p) the bad news is
q) we are so late now that THAT'S ALL I SEE...
r) I cannot see how we move up from there

Trade closed manually

01/09 8:24 AM TRADE CLOSED 2032.87
a) nothing happened
b) and I don't have any reason to wait
c) maybe it's just not going to happen
d) if it does, again too late for all the setups before
e) so.. whatever

Note

f) the setup has 60 pts for bulls
g) so why nothing?
h) the only reason is nobody's buying or nobody cares

Note

i) have a lottery option play for next Friday
j) it's cheap, we will see if it does anything

Note

8:40 saw the bounce to 2042, lottery paying some already...
a) this changes nothing for this post/idea
b) bc it's so late, I have to see THE ENTIRE FIRST MOVE
c) then I don't' even know if that's enough, because the look is entirely different now
d) dropping back to 2035.xx as I type
e) so until all of that is done
f) I HAVE NOTHING TO GO ON
g) and tomorrow's my 01/10 date... and I still have nothing
h) bulls have ZERO excuses to be so low so late
i) the only move left is continuously vertical moves..
j) called miracles bc they don't need "setups"
k) but really called miracles BC THEY DON'T HAPPEN

Note

AND HERE IS THE TEST:

GOLD 3-DAY EXTRAPOLATION TEST 1, 01/09/24

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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