Hello All, hope you all enjoyed yesterday's Analysis and welcome to TODAY'S ANALYSIS.
As usual before we proceed to today's evaluation/Analysis we'll have a RECAP OF YESTERDAY.
YESTERDAY'S RECAP!
I had our ALARMS (TRAPS) set as usual and we were waiting for them to be TRIGGERED!
The buying PRESSURE was great at FIRST, which made us want to to target $1870 however they were indicating short buys and smaller targets, I had targeted $1858 and $1861 once they get broken then this was our upward move,but in accordance to the candle sizes and the wicks being formed i was certain that we won't see the rise.
(YESTERDAY'S NOTE)
For the sellers if we see a declined buy and our current move doesn't exceed $1850-52, this could be the first indication and considering the trend pattern we will call it a DOWNTREND however if the move bounces back from $1850-52 then falls further and breaks $1848 then we should see our fall TAKE PROFIT ZONE $1839 and if it's broken we will then see $1830.(the decline has been seen at $1848 never exceeded) due to this my suspicion is we going down confirmation zone is the same so be on the look out and as i had indicated $1839 was hit after immidietly confirming, and it just happened that i saw the fall further down on a blink after confirming my Traps broken, the truth of the matter is that i didn't see the fall to $1804 but i saw the fall to $1818 and i kept on updating all of ya after further analysis and confirmation, when every other TRADER was looking at BUY which was highly anticipated i actually saw a fall, however this didn't mean they were WRONG, it just means they skipped a few key areas and since most of us were expecting a RISE CONTINUATION, therefore the SIGNALING made it even worse for an uptrend.
Whatever the case they were right to some extent and i was as well right! anyways that's what TRADING is all about.
TODAY'S ANALYSIS.
The scenarios are many however i still consider $1804 as a TAKE PROFIT ZONE for me , the current price is ranging within $1811 and $1817 i took an extra step and indicated on my chart with the YELLOW info line that if $1809 is broken then we will be seeing $1804 Hit, however considering the other side when i see $1818 broken this could be an indication for a move back up however my second confirmation zone is $1824 once $1824 is broken then it's very likely we'll see a rise to the HITTING of our first TAKE PROFIT ZONE at $1830 and possibly $1839.
Considering all aspects for now i suspect once we reach $1804 we should see some CONSOLIDATION(RANGING) MARKET and in most Scenario's of the ranging MARKET i always look into the PATTERN FORMATION and PRESSURE here we will be able to identify wether our TREND will continue falling or could be a CORRECTIONAL phase, so i highly recommend us to go on lower time frames USE the opportunities provided by the RANGING (CONSOLIDATION) MARKET by identifying SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS near where the MARKET is Ranging and collect them blues slowly as we wait for MAJOR outbreaks in our 1 HR CHARTS.
There is even a possibility that the MARKET might RISE from the current zone and directly hit $1809 then bounces back and moves back up to form a double bottom so in this scenario i'll be looking at where the bounce started and where it ended , to some extent it can even create a triple bottom but all these are meant for when the MARKET is there already.
As of now do wish you a wonderful TRADING DAY ahead and see you later for an update.
As usual before we proceed to today's evaluation/Analysis we'll have a RECAP OF YESTERDAY.
YESTERDAY'S RECAP!
I had our ALARMS (TRAPS) set as usual and we were waiting for them to be TRIGGERED!
The buying PRESSURE was great at FIRST, which made us want to to target $1870 however they were indicating short buys and smaller targets, I had targeted $1858 and $1861 once they get broken then this was our upward move,but in accordance to the candle sizes and the wicks being formed i was certain that we won't see the rise.
(YESTERDAY'S NOTE)
For the sellers if we see a declined buy and our current move doesn't exceed $1850-52, this could be the first indication and considering the trend pattern we will call it a DOWNTREND however if the move bounces back from $1850-52 then falls further and breaks $1848 then we should see our fall TAKE PROFIT ZONE $1839 and if it's broken we will then see $1830.(the decline has been seen at $1848 never exceeded) due to this my suspicion is we going down confirmation zone is the same so be on the look out and as i had indicated $1839 was hit after immidietly confirming, and it just happened that i saw the fall further down on a blink after confirming my Traps broken, the truth of the matter is that i didn't see the fall to $1804 but i saw the fall to $1818 and i kept on updating all of ya after further analysis and confirmation, when every other TRADER was looking at BUY which was highly anticipated i actually saw a fall, however this didn't mean they were WRONG, it just means they skipped a few key areas and since most of us were expecting a RISE CONTINUATION, therefore the SIGNALING made it even worse for an uptrend.
Whatever the case they were right to some extent and i was as well right! anyways that's what TRADING is all about.
TODAY'S ANALYSIS.
The scenarios are many however i still consider $1804 as a TAKE PROFIT ZONE for me , the current price is ranging within $1811 and $1817 i took an extra step and indicated on my chart with the YELLOW info line that if $1809 is broken then we will be seeing $1804 Hit, however considering the other side when i see $1818 broken this could be an indication for a move back up however my second confirmation zone is $1824 once $1824 is broken then it's very likely we'll see a rise to the HITTING of our first TAKE PROFIT ZONE at $1830 and possibly $1839.
Considering all aspects for now i suspect once we reach $1804 we should see some CONSOLIDATION(RANGING) MARKET and in most Scenario's of the ranging MARKET i always look into the PATTERN FORMATION and PRESSURE here we will be able to identify wether our TREND will continue falling or could be a CORRECTIONAL phase, so i highly recommend us to go on lower time frames USE the opportunities provided by the RANGING (CONSOLIDATION) MARKET by identifying SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS near where the MARKET is Ranging and collect them blues slowly as we wait for MAJOR outbreaks in our 1 HR CHARTS.
There is even a possibility that the MARKET might RISE from the current zone and directly hit $1809 then bounces back and moves back up to form a double bottom so in this scenario i'll be looking at where the bounce started and where it ended , to some extent it can even create a triple bottom but all these are meant for when the MARKET is there already.
As of now do wish you a wonderful TRADING DAY ahead and see you later for an update.
Note
Another PRESS RELEASE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOUSING, TRANSPORTATION, AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT will meet in OPEN SESSION, HYBRID FORMAT to conduct a hearing entitled, “The Federal Strategic Plan to Prevent and End Homelessness.” The witnesses will be: Mr. Jeff Olivet, Executive Director, U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness; and Dr. Richard Cho, Senior Advisor for Housing and Services, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
All hearings are webcast live and will not be available until the hearing starts.
This release will bring in spikes on our trades so be careful
Note
GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - NEUTRALPrecious metals appear to be losing shine after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stepped up higher rates rhetoric in his semi-annual testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday.
Powell said the ultimate rate peak is likely to be higher than expected and the central bank is prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. In his previous appearance a month ago, Powell emphasized the ‘disinflation’ theme and stopped short of adopting an aggressive tone following a strong US jobs report. The increased hawkishness on Tuesday pushed the US Treasury 2-year yield to its highest level since 2007, weighing on precious metals.
The odds of a 50-bps rate hike at the March 21-22 FOMC meeting have increased, with US rate futures now pricing in a terminal fed funds rate at 5.63% by September from 5.48% before Powell’s testimony, and 5% at the end of January, close to 100 bps higher than the current Fed policy rate of 4.50%-4.75%.
what's your understanding on the above statement?
Note
I have a feeling we going UP! considered all aspects awaiting the RELEASE!Note
0046 GMT - Gold prices are flat in early Asian trade, but may trend downward following the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. "Gold is in the danger zone once again and could see major bearish momentum on the break of the $1,800 level," says Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya in a note. He reckons that as Fed Chair Powell is signaling that the central bank could increase interest rates at a faster pace than previously expected, gold prices could struggle as bond yields move higher. The next focus is likely to be on the upcoming U.S. jobs report, he adds. Spot gold is flat at $1,813.09/oz.IS GOLD HAVING A DOWNFALL AND LOOSING it's SHINE this week ?
let's go scalping for now.
Trade active
I was right! when other traders were in for A SELL i saw A BUY and i do understand the concept behind their selling! yes there concept is very right and accurate however i'll say they were emotionally affected by the PREVIOUS FALL and couldn't think straight anymore, so they saw the fall continuation!As i had indicated in my previous COMMENT UPDATE ," i had considered all aspects and i knew we were going back up only the RELEASE was pulling me back.
Anyways long story short $1818 is broken and this was our CONFIRMATION ZONE, considering the PRICE ACTION i'm all BULLISH although the current candle formation is BEARISH, i have reasons to believe that it's going for a retest back to $1813 and also my TREND LINE seems to not be as expected , now my doubts are diving in deeper, however this seems like A GOOD LONG BUY ENTRY once we see the retest, and yes i took the risk i have 4 entries for a long Buy Targeting $1830 though my LOT SIZING is also considerable.
Meanwhile the SCENARIO for the fall if it were to continue then as i had indicated EARLIER $1804 is the look out zone. anything apart from that is NULL and VOID.
IN 4 AND 3 HOUR TIME FRAME we can see a bounce and we can as well see clearly that SELLERS have lost their SELLING POWER, and BULLS have gained the MOMENTUM which gives me more REASON to add more BUY ENTRIES.
Anyways that's it for now and until tomorrow i hope you enjoyed today's analysis and you had a profitable DAY.
Note
Just to be clear once we have $1830 broken and possibly an extension to $1839-40 we could see the melt down of GOLD from that level and this time round GOLD will be digging even DEEPER than anticipated by most of those who went for their sells early.I have a SELL LIMIT set on the $1839-40 level and my FIRST TAKE PROFIT ZONE IS $1804 but my second zone is further down at $1774 , RISK MANAGEMENT Plans are active so worry less, and since i might not see it fall you can't imagine how CAREFUL i am with the SELL LIMIT.
CIAO!
I don't want to miss these opportunities so i pray for the rise to $1830 and consolidation coz in my country it's sleeping time and i have an early morning, shift at least the consolidation will buy me time until i wake up and do further analysis.
A VERY RISKY MOVE i'm making tonight! FINGERS CROSSED!
Note
In 15 Minutes Time Frame there is an INDECISION CANDLE FORMED the same candle is formed in 1HOUR TIME FRAME, whereas in 15minutes we had a slight upward move and then the INDECISION candle was formed which in most cases it signals changes in our trend ,The same applies in 1 hour Time Frame.This gives me goosebumps a change in trend within a trend, makes me not want to sleep and continue analyzing which indeed i am TIRED and possibly will see the side effects tomorrow and as you all know it's not usual for me to be updating at this hour , so i guess the FOMO is back in me and i hate it so much, so i'll update my TP'S to a much easier Target and sleep. The Sell Limits are also out!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.