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🔥 XAU/USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes will Cause the Fall ? (READ)

Updated

By checking the gold chart in the 4-hour time frame, we see that the price finally reached $2032 based on yesterday's analysis on daily time frame, and after that, the initial drop of 40 pips has been corrected to $2028! As you know, today we will have the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which can cause the market to face heavy fluctuations! If the minutes show that the Fed is more concerned about inflation and less inclined to cut rates, gold prices may fall, as it would boost the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. Today's FOMC report is more important than ever from various points, and I will try to explain it to you fundamentally in the Update Section !

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Note

What's FOMC Meeting Minutes and its effects on the maket ?

• The FOMC Meeting Minutes are the official record of the policy discussions and decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is the monetary policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The minutes are released three weeks after each meeting and provide insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the Fed’s actions and outlook.

• The FOMC Meeting Minutes can have significant effects on gold prices, as they reveal the Fed’s stance on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Generally, when the FOMC is more dovish than expected, meaning that it signals a slower pace of tightening or a higher likelihood of easing, the price of gold often rises, as it implies lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar. On the contrary, when the FOMC is more hawkish than expected, meaning that it indicates a faster pace of tightening or a lower probability of easing, gold prices often decline, as it suggests higher real interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Prepared by : Arman Shaban

Note

Today in 21th February 2024 we have this coming ! what do i expect ? (by Arman Shaban)

• For the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes on February 21, 2024, the market will be looking for clues on the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s next interest rate cut, as well as its assessment of the inflation and growth outlook. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in its January meeting, but hinted at a possible rate cut later in the year, citing subdued inflation and global uncertainties. However, the recent data on consumer and producer prices showed higher-than-expected inflation in January, raising doubts about the Fed’s willingness to ease monetary policy. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market is pricing a 75% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in June, and a 25% chance of no change.

• Therefore, the market reaction to the FOMC Meeting Minutes will depend on whether the Fed confirms or contradicts the market expectations. If the minutes show that the Fed is more concerned about inflation and less inclined to cut rates, gold prices may fall, as it would boost the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. Conversely, if the minutes reveal that the Fed is more worried about growth and more open to easing, gold prices may rise, as it would weaken the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. Additionally, any comments on the global economic and geopolitical risks, such as the trade tensions, the coronavirus outbreak, and the U.S. presidential election, may also influence the gold prices, as they affect the demand for safe-haven assets.

Prepared by : Arman Shaban

Trade active

As you can see, based on my expectation yesterday, Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that a majority of the central bank's policymakers are concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon,And because of this, gold faced an initial drop and corrected it by more than 120 pips until $2020! After that, gold was again accompanied by demand and today it was able to grow up to the second range of supply and after reaching $2035, it faced a heavy selling pressure and corrected it up to $2027! The overall efficiency of this analysis is more than 190 pips, which I hope you have made the most of it! the range of $2034 to $2038 is one of the important ranges of supply and we have to see with today's numerous news whether gold continues to fall or we should wait for targets above $2044! This analysis will be updated!

Trade closed: target reached

By re-examining the gold chart in the 4-hour time frame, we see that as we expected, gold finally continued to fall and was able to correct up to the last target drawn on the chart ($2016) ! After that, the price rose to $2029 to fill the new liquidity void that caused by this drop, and then it has been accompanied by a minor correction! If the price stabilizes below $2029, we will see a further drop in the price in the coming week, the possible mid-term targets will be $2005, $1995, and $1987, respectively!

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