GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentals

Updated

XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase.

Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack.
Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase.

Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023.

Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors.
- Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe.
- Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.
This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations.

Analyze technical prospects XAUUSD
Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21.

In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.

The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below.

Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD

Note

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2396 - 2394

⚰️SL: 2400

⬆️TP1: 2389
⬆️TP2: 2384

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2324 - 2326

⚰️SL: 2320

⬆️TP1: 2331
⬆️TP2: 2336

Note

According to Labor Department data, initial claims stood at 212,000 last week, below economists' forecast of 215,000. Applications for continued benefits stood at 1.81 million in the week ending April 6.

Note

Gold prices rose as much as 1.3% and are headed for a fifth consecutive week of increases after unverified reports of attacks in Iran, Syria and Iraq.

Note

Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400

Note

⭕️Gold prices rose on Friday due to risk aversion in financial markets following media reports of bombings in Iran, which raised fears of a broader regional conflict and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven.

Note

🔴The House has voted to advance a foreign aid package, a significant step in sending aid to Ukraine and Israel, with 165 Democrats joining Republicans to override opposed far-right GOP members. It sets up a final vote as soon as Saturday.

Note

🔹BREAKING - A majority of members of the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill that could effectively ban the TikTok application in the United States

- The project is part of a package of draft laws to provide aid to allies around the world worth $95 billion

- Voting is still ongoing in the Republican-controlled chamber

Note

The USD price rose sharply after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the US economy does not yet exhibit signs of inflation reaching the central bank's 2% target. He acknowledged that it might take longer than anticipated to lower interest rates. The Fed Chairman's decision on interest rates, coupled with the search for a safe investment amidst mounting geopolitical tensions following Iran's attack on Israel, further bolstered the strength of the USD.

Note

ECB officials are focusing on the June 6 policy decision. This is considered when the ECB will start cutting interest rates. Villeroy has been a vocal supporter of such a move, while his more hawkish colleagues have expressed less certainty.

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