The Last Call
We are going to go to 3600-3750 by September to December of next year. However, there is going to be a giant sideways to up move that can take four months to resolve before price moves aggressively higher in February next year. That said, price action has not revealed "which sideways to up pattern this will be".
Beyond that, I am losing interest in the remainder of this cycle. So these are my last thoughts for gold's final rally to 3600-3750.
Beyond that, I am losing interest in the remainder of this cycle. So these are my last thoughts for gold's final rally to 3600-3750.
Note
10/07, 4:55 PM ET, so the part that is not obvious looks like this right now over next 5 months: Note
Note
1) in chart above, there is one caveat vs super-long term patterns
2) I have a hard time explaining why we are not at 2700s already
3) bc by a number of different methodologies...
4) we really should be 2720s before the next decent drop
5) and number of different methods of forecasting continue to insist...
6) that 2700s should be next
Note
Note
10/07k, 5:25PM ET, and that is this one, hit replay twice:
1) in post above from November of 2022
2) in basic trend theory that is the foundation of my trend engine
3) if price does prove strength soon
4) that implies weakness
5) and an eventual check of 2300
6) we are several steps from this conclusion, but be aware that
7) IF YOU DO NOT SEE 27XX SOON, the only "pattern" that can mean ....
8) is a deeper correction to 2300, but same final conclusion to 3600-3700
9) that's my final comment for this project
10) I'll see you around
Note
11) I am refraining from all the technical details of that move (to 2300s, not)
12) I just don't sense any interest in that so that is a wrap
13) and...
14) have a HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
Note
Note
9) in chart above, this is the trouble with "pattern"
10) you don't know where you are in the "super long term"
11) because it will all make sense 10 years later when you look back on it
12) hence the only forward looking method that works is
13) continuous binary forecasts every single day
14) and that's my last word
Note
Note
Note
10/07, 10:07 PM CT, Kansas City - This is for the people that don't get it:
1) price is a continuously-binary outcome phenomenon
2) I have already solved for short term forecasting
3) it is a binary forecast "refreshed" 4-6 times a day
4) for longer term forecast, just lock price-bar and refresh accordingly
5) IT'S NOT THAT HARD
6) what I have discussed on this post is the number of scenarios that exist if..
7) you consider the "route tree" that is 8 years out
8) basically scenarios where gold would more than double, triple, or quadruple
9) from where we are now
10) for example, if you do not consider at least 7 years out
11) it's borderline impossible to see a move to 2300 this December
12) and this is illustrated in the chart above
13) that's what this correction would mean, a 6000 outcome rough in the year 2031
14) but that's way over most people's understanding of price action
15) long story short, the longer the input timeframe for a forecast
16) the wider the range of outcomes
17) so your view of "what is or is not possible"
18) otherwise defined as lack of imagination...
19) is simple derivative of length of your time frame
20) so basically I explained the possible 90-120 day outcomes
21) with respect to a 3700 high, a 6000 high, and a 1000 high
22) but ranging 15 months, 6 years and 8 years+
23) regardless done is done, so have a good day
Note
typo on 21)... last number is 10,000 high (not 1000, obviously)Note
Note
Note
9:22 PM FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ARE TOO SLOW:
1) the "10 year gold rally" has been a favorite thesis of precious metals community
2) for lack of a better word, let's just call them gold bugs in general
3) because from 1971 to January 1980, and from 2001 to Aug 2011
4) these two rallies more or less are the basis for "gold 10 year rally theory"
5) for this to be true for late 2025 through most of 2026...
6) 2685 CANNOT A BE MAJOR TOP
7) depending on which circles you run in, this became totally obvious
8) either this week or last week
9) from a purely technical standpoint, this became obvious this Monday
10) and in the last 24 hours, it became obvious 2525-2530 will not hold
11) which means 2430-2450 is the next floor
12) so without discussing 23xx
13) this means that the you are in a GIANT SIDEWAYS MOVE FOR MANY MONTHS
14) not "sideways to up", JUST STRICTLY SIDEWAYS:
Note
Note
t) continuing in chart above, so if you follow the precious metals market
u) this "long term gold rally for years and years" thesis will find its way to you
v) some time in in the next 2-16 months, depending on the quality of your analysts
w) and THAT IS WHAT HAS CHANGED THE LAST 4 TRADING DAYS
Note
10/09, 9:58 PM ET, FOR THE RECORD IF YOU'VE FOLLOWED ME THE LAST 14 MONTHS
1) my goal then as it is now is to go fund the automation of my trend engine formula
2) and I needed a massive gold rally IN A SHORT TIME in order to make that possible
3) this October is my last attempt to "make it in time"
4) that's why I stuck with the 3000 BY HALLOWEEN call until I couldn't any more
5) if you're a developer in search of a trend engine formula, hit me up
6) otherwise have a good life!
Note
10/10/2024, 10:18 AM ETNote
Note
8) finishing with chart above, this is it for me
9) so today I walk away from this project despite within reach of max potential ...
10) of this trend engine that I consider the most legitimate definition of trend ...
11) and all time scales
12) and why?" I am being paid 2-3x what I would draw as private service (w/o subsidy)
13) to do something entirely unrelated to this
14) while precious metals gear up for a 7 year run
15) kind of a shame
16) but as with all things, the market has determined what I should do next
17) if you are a developer looking for a trend engine
18) just msg me, I still check msgs from time to time
19) and that's the last "last comment"
Note
10/15, 3:12 PM, for the people that messaged me for clarification:
1) no, my opinion has not changed
2) here's clarification of that view:
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