XAUUSD: Potential bottom spotted...tight stop!
Updated
Gold appears to have bottomed here. If we examine the 1h and daily timeframes we can determine that it's likely to see gold turn up from here, and in a significant manner. Both technicals and sentiment data align, presenting a very compelling case for the bullish setup on chart. I'd reccomend entering longs at market open in this case, but it doesn't hurt to use some discretion and entering after the market opens and trades for a few minutes, or even after Monday's NY close for a more conservative trader.
Hourly bars have an uptrend signal active, and daily looks strong after having exhausted technical downside for the last daily decline signal.
CoT positioning shows a very interesting pattern, ever since Gold topped in 2011: imgur.com/a/S8n1Vbc
I'd expect a anywhere between $100 and $300 up from here at the very least, as long as this bottom holds.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Hourly bars have an uptrend signal active, and daily looks strong after having exhausted technical downside for the last daily decline signal.
CoT positioning shows a very interesting pattern, ever since Gold topped in 2011: imgur.com/a/S8n1Vbc
I'd expect a anywhere between $100 and $300 up from here at the very least, as long as this bottom holds.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed manually
We all got faked out, and it turned up. Such a cutthroat market gold is, just like FX. Controlled by banks, they are the main players profiting from these bs moves.Disclaimer, rant follows:
Sentiment in gold is a problem, slice it however you want, truth is most people on Earth are gold bulls. Talk to any random person, anywhere, majority will not hesitate to talk positively about gold, but they will certainly hate on stocks or any 'risky' investment. Cause 'gold never loses its value', etc. If you want to seem smart, be a gold bull, call out market manipulation, central banks printing money and all those ideas popularized by the permanently wrong footed goldbugs, who happen to be sellers of bullion, at ridiculously scammy premiums...
Truth is, we need to protect our money from inflation, and we shouldn't just seek to get rich expecting everyone else to suffer, from a global catastrophic event. It's just perverse to look forward to that really. These ideas have kept people out of the equity market for ages, and generally clueless about how markets function, or about the economy, with the nasty side effect of having reduced people's wealth, since most people have no investments to their name, nor savings or anything since the financial crisis...And in many cases, not because they couldn't have invested or saved at all.
How can such a market rally? I think it can't. Simply no way, any rally is likely to be faded to then resume the chop which keeps investors poor, and market makers rich.
For some reason we keep resisting this idea here, but it doesn't work. Wait for people to hate it or ignore it completely...until then just trade whatever else, imho.
TL;DR summary for those lazy to read: screw gold and goldbugs and physical gold scam sellers.
Note
DXY is forming a potential buy signal here on close, sellers exhausted after 3 days since the last big daily decline. Looks like it could have been a bear trap.There's a chance the
DXY rally doesn't end until year end according to quarterly time at mode signals. The target was hit ahead of time, which usually causes the market to spend time to 'dissipate the energy' from the previous move up, until enough time passes and it's ready to move directionally again. Maybe by Q1 2019 it is ready to drop.Note
Quarterly gold tells a similar story: By Q1 2019 we will have spent enough time accumulating in this zone to form a new quarterly uptrend signal, and the sellers from the big quarterly decline from the last quarter will be exhausted.
Unless something extraordinary occurs before, this is likely to put some pressure on gold rallies for the time being, even if lower timeframes show local uptrends periodically.
Now, we could be getting ready for one, but I'm not thrilled with the price action yet. In a couple days we will have a valid daily buy signal, 2-4 days from here:
I'd look to buy on dips with a tight stop in case we do get a relief rally.
Trade active
Long once more.
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