Get ready for big data, GOLD rises to retest 2,364USD

Updated

XAUUSD is mostly flat as the market awaits important news from US non-farm data to be released today (Friday). Fed rate cut expectations are based on this data. At the same time, affected by the US holiday, market trading volume decreased and gold prices found it difficult to maintain Wednesday's gains, fluctuating in a narrow range but still above 2,350 USD/ounce.

Recent U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing policy sooner than expected, but policymakers remain cautious and want to see deflation progress. further development.
Data released by the US showed initial jobless claims last week and ADP data showed private hiring activity fell in June compared to May. Additionally, US PMI data ISM service industry shows that business activities in the service industry have fallen into a decline zone.

Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said deflation had resumed but emphasized that more progress was needed before interest rate cuts could be considered.
He added: “Because the American economy is strong and the labor market is strong, we can take our time and get the job done.”

At the same time, the US Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its June meeting showing that most participants believe that current policy is very restrictive but leaves the door open for interest rate hikes.
Policymakers acknowledge that the economy is cooling and could respond to unexpected economic weakness.

Today (Friday), the United States will release its nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is expected to show that the US labor market added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May.
Of course, if NFP data declines, it will be beneficial for gold because it increases the possibility that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, making the US Dollar less attractive.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, unchanged from the previous figure, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.1 %.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, up from 63% on Tuesday.

GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USD

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold was limited by the $2,364 level that readers noticed in the previous issue, it is now rising to test this important technical level.

In the short term, once gold breaks $2,364 it will have room to continue rising with a target then noted at the original price point of $2,400.

On the other hand, on the overall technical chart, gold still has all the technical factors for a possible price increase. With the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci point and main support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
The relative strength index (RSI) is gradually moving up but is still very far from the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is still very wide.

During the day, the technical trend leans heavily towards the possibility of an increase in the price of gold and it will be noticed by the following points.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364 – 2,400USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392

⚰️SL: 2398

⬆️TP1: 2387
⬆️TP2: 2382

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336

⚰️SL: 2330

⬆️TP1: 2341
⬆️TP2: 2346

Trade active

Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 50pips. Move SL to Entry🔥

Note

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]

Note

This week will be a busy week for financial markets due to the release of many important US economic information. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give regular testimony on monetary policy before the US Congress. Next, the US Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday.

Trade closed: target reached

Plan SELL Close Full Hit TP2 + 120pips 🗡

Note

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

Note

🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

Note

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.

Note

On the daily chart time frame, XAUUSD has pared recent gains and is moving sideways near the downtrend line, where a further decline towards 2250 support could occur. Change in market structure above The lower time frame, through the formation of higher lows and higher highs, could indicate a potential recovery from 2250. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below the 2250 support level, the price could drop to 2180 - next potential support level. MACD is also below the zero threshold, indicating a bearish possibility.

Note

Fed's Powell: The latest labor market data sent a clear signal that the labor market has slowed considerably.

Fed's Powell: The labor market is more or less returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Fed's Powell: The next policy move is not likely to be a rate hike.

Note

🟢US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I am not aware of any discussions among Treasury secretaries regarding activating the 25th Amendment.

Note

World gold prices increased slightly on Tuesday (July 9) in the context of a firm USD and US Treasury bond yields inching up, as investors waited for the US to announce new inflation data this week. This is to be able to have a clearer direction on the path of interest rates.

Note

🟢Goldman Sachs predicts when the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Analysts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs expressed, on Wednesday, their optimism regarding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts that will be decided by the Federal Open Market Committee during the coming period.

Note

🔴A member of the US Federal Reserve talks about global inflation and policy challenges

Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivered an important speech on “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” during the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists, held on Thursday evening. In her remarks, Cook noted that inflation in the United States is expected to continue to decline without a significant impact on... Unemployment rate, according to a Reuters report.

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