GOLD - the Coming Months. In depth analysis M-4H
Updated
Monthly Outlook - Strong previous year resistance at $1375, December saw a rise in price from lows of $1235 (long term trend line acting as support) to close to this level. However, in January momentum has dwindled and prices peaked just short at $1365 level before closing at $1345.
Weekly- End Jan- Beginning of Feb so far is looking bearish and so we have already had a steep decline and we are currently testing the $1330 Level Which has been acting as a price support zone for the previous 3 weeks with so far weekly price action failing to close below.
Based on this outlook I am looking at a long term target of $1285 which I forecast we should hit in May. This is in confluence with the trend we seem to have forming on the weekly and also 0.618 level of our previous wave. Also, looking at price volume levels, this ties in with the start of a peak volume zone (indicating possible reversal at this point which I am pretty confident will cause price to start a new bullish move. Possibly to this time hit $1375.
Daily - Again chart is confirming the peak of price at 1365, we have broken through our bull trend support and began to make lower highs and lower lows, currently testing the weekly lows mentioned above at 1330. To give myself the best possible entry point for this trade I will wait and see if we break this level and enter at 1322.5 OR we may see a rejection and bounce to 1340. (Again, in confluence with price trend line).
4H - from the two price movements I have forecast in the daily I am leaning slightly towards a final rejection and bounce of the support level (Orange Rectangle) and a bounce to 1340. I have arrived at this conclusion based on previous price action around this level with no close below at all, as well as taking into account the low level of RSI sitting around 35.00 and the low price volume area we are currently at.
Weekly- End Jan- Beginning of Feb so far is looking bearish and so we have already had a steep decline and we are currently testing the $1330 Level Which has been acting as a price support zone for the previous 3 weeks with so far weekly price action failing to close below.
Based on this outlook I am looking at a long term target of $1285 which I forecast we should hit in May. This is in confluence with the trend we seem to have forming on the weekly and also 0.618 level of our previous wave. Also, looking at price volume levels, this ties in with the start of a peak volume zone (indicating possible reversal at this point which I am pretty confident will cause price to start a new bullish move. Possibly to this time hit $1375.
Daily - Again chart is confirming the peak of price at 1365, we have broken through our bull trend support and began to make lower highs and lower lows, currently testing the weekly lows mentioned above at 1330. To give myself the best possible entry point for this trade I will wait and see if we break this level and enter at 1322.5 OR we may see a rejection and bounce to 1340. (Again, in confluence with price trend line).
4H - from the two price movements I have forecast in the daily I am leaning slightly towards a final rejection and bounce of the support level (Orange Rectangle) and a bounce to 1340. I have arrived at this conclusion based on previous price action around this level with no close below at all, as well as taking into account the low level of RSI sitting around 35.00 and the low price volume area we are currently at.
Trade closed: target reached
Note
playing out nicely, looks like we may come up to touch yellow tl on 4h again before more lows
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