🧩 Gold is trading at all-time highs, and the key question is: where's the top? In this post, I present a complete picture: from the long-term supercycle to the current structure on the hourly chart, plus a full set of macro and fundamental arguments in favor of continued growth.
1. Grand Supercycle & Supercycle
I'm using the Gold Futures
GC1! chart since 1975, which gives the best long-term volume profile. According to my Elliott Wave interpretation:
Waves ① and ② of the Grand Supercycle ended before the 2000s.
The Supercycle wave III began in 2000.
Key milestones:
Wave I of the Supercycle peaked in August 2011
Wave II bottomed in December 2015
This entire period featured accumulation and reaccumulation. Since 2016, the gold market entered an expansion phase, forming Supercycle wave III. We are currently within its first cycle wave, which suggests there's still a long way to go.
📌 The ultimate upside is hard to predict, but the projected path on the chart points to targets in the $8,000–12,000 zone.
2. The Cycle Wave Since 2016: Extended Fifth
Starting from 2016, we see a classic 1–2–3–4–5 impulse structure, with the fifth wave showing clear extension — a trait commonly seen in commodity markets.
🔎 Robert Prechter pointed out that in traditional stock markets, it’s usually Wave 3 that gets extended — driven by greed and early confidence in the trend.
But in commodity markets like gold, it’s often Wave 5 that gets extended. This is because traders hesitate for a long time and only enter the market in panic, typically during crises, inflationary spikes, or physical shortages.
📌 The primary motivation here is fear, capital preservation, and flight from risk — not profit-seeking. That’s why gold often produces vertical rallies at the end of a trend, within the fifth wave.
📌 In this case,XAUUSD GOLD GOLD 
GLD becomes a safe-haven of last resort in a world of rising fiat uncertainty.
3. Cup and Handle: A Textbook Bullish Pattern
The weekly chart shows a 10-year Cup and Handle pattern (2011–2023). The breakout above the neckline has occurred, projecting a classic target in the $3500–3600 range.
4. 2022–2025 Impulse: More to Come
Gold has been in a strong impulsive uptrend since 2022. This move already looks extended, but there is room for more, especially given the structure of subwaves.
In the near term (1–2 months), a flat correction in wave (iv) is likely before gold rallies to a new all-time high, potentially forming wave ③ around $3400–3600. After that, expect a period of distribution and range-bound price action.
5. Hourly Chart: Fifth Wave Not Done Yet
On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and key support. We are likely still inside wave (iv), with a potential final push in wave (v) ahead.
Key levels:
Support: $2920–2950
Resistance: $3250–3300
📌 A breakout above resistance could trigger a rapid rally.
Macro and Fundamental Drivers
🔹 Falling Real Rates in the US
10Y yields are near 4.3%, while CPI inflation remains above 3.2%. This creates a negative real interest rate, historically a strong tailwind for gold.
🔹 Record Central Bank Buying
2023 marked the second consecutive record year for central bank gold purchases. China, India, Turkey, and Singapore are leading the charge. This shift reflects a move away from the USD amid geopolitical tensions.
🔹 Fiat System Stress
Concerns over US commercial debt, banking instability, and growing systemic risk have made gold a preferred store of value for both retail and institutional investors.
🔹 Physical Delivery Demand
There is growing pressure on the LBMA to deliver physical gold, not just paper claims. Some sovereign and institutional players are demanding real metal delivery. This stresses London vaults and could drive prices higher in a short squeeze scenario.
🔹 US Debt Burden
Interest on US debt is expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2024 — a historic high. This challenges the USD’s reserve status and may increase long-term demand for gold.
Where Can Gold Go?
🧩 We are witnessing a rare alignment of:
✅ Technical structure
✅ Elliott Wave cycles
✅ Macro tailwinds
✅ Supply stress in physical gold
📌 $3400–3600 is just the beginning.
Consolidation may follow, but over the next few years, gold could target $5000 and beyond as this Supercycle wave unfolds.
1. Grand Supercycle & Supercycle
I'm using the Gold Futures
GC1! chart since 1975, which gives the best long-term volume profile. According to my Elliott Wave interpretation:Waves ① and ② of the Grand Supercycle ended before the 2000s.
The Supercycle wave III began in 2000.
Key milestones:
Wave I of the Supercycle peaked in August 2011
Wave II bottomed in December 2015
This entire period featured accumulation and reaccumulation. Since 2016, the gold market entered an expansion phase, forming Supercycle wave III. We are currently within its first cycle wave, which suggests there's still a long way to go.
📌 The ultimate upside is hard to predict, but the projected path on the chart points to targets in the $8,000–12,000 zone.
2. The Cycle Wave Since 2016: Extended Fifth
Starting from 2016, we see a classic 1–2–3–4–5 impulse structure, with the fifth wave showing clear extension — a trait commonly seen in commodity markets.
🔎 Robert Prechter pointed out that in traditional stock markets, it’s usually Wave 3 that gets extended — driven by greed and early confidence in the trend.
But in commodity markets like gold, it’s often Wave 5 that gets extended. This is because traders hesitate for a long time and only enter the market in panic, typically during crises, inflationary spikes, or physical shortages.
📌 The primary motivation here is fear, capital preservation, and flight from risk — not profit-seeking. That’s why gold often produces vertical rallies at the end of a trend, within the fifth wave.
📌 In this case,
XAUUSD GOLD GOLD GLD becomes a safe-haven of last resort in a world of rising fiat uncertainty.3. Cup and Handle: A Textbook Bullish Pattern
The weekly chart shows a 10-year Cup and Handle pattern (2011–2023). The breakout above the neckline has occurred, projecting a classic target in the $3500–3600 range.
4. 2022–2025 Impulse: More to Come
Gold has been in a strong impulsive uptrend since 2022. This move already looks extended, but there is room for more, especially given the structure of subwaves.
In the near term (1–2 months), a flat correction in wave (iv) is likely before gold rallies to a new all-time high, potentially forming wave ③ around $3400–3600. After that, expect a period of distribution and range-bound price action.
5. Hourly Chart: Fifth Wave Not Done Yet
On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and key support. We are likely still inside wave (iv), with a potential final push in wave (v) ahead.
Key levels:
Support: $2920–2950
Resistance: $3250–3300
📌 A breakout above resistance could trigger a rapid rally.
Macro and Fundamental Drivers
🔹 Falling Real Rates in the US
10Y yields are near 4.3%, while CPI inflation remains above 3.2%. This creates a negative real interest rate, historically a strong tailwind for gold.
🔹 Record Central Bank Buying
2023 marked the second consecutive record year for central bank gold purchases. China, India, Turkey, and Singapore are leading the charge. This shift reflects a move away from the USD amid geopolitical tensions.
🔹 Fiat System Stress
Concerns over US commercial debt, banking instability, and growing systemic risk have made gold a preferred store of value for both retail and institutional investors.
🔹 Physical Delivery Demand
There is growing pressure on the LBMA to deliver physical gold, not just paper claims. Some sovereign and institutional players are demanding real metal delivery. This stresses London vaults and could drive prices higher in a short squeeze scenario.
🔹 US Debt Burden
Interest on US debt is expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2024 — a historic high. This challenges the USD’s reserve status and may increase long-term demand for gold.
Where Can Gold Go?
🧩 We are witnessing a rare alignment of:
✅ Technical structure
✅ Elliott Wave cycles
✅ Macro tailwinds
✅ Supply stress in physical gold
📌 $3400–3600 is just the beginning.
Consolidation may follow, but over the next few years, gold could target $5000 and beyond as this Supercycle wave unfolds.
Trade active
🔄 Update: April 10As a long-term alternative, I’m also considering a slightly different count (see first chart below). It doesn’t change the core idea — we are still within the third wave of the ongoing Supercycle. This version simply reflects a more extended internal wave structure.
Since the initial publication, gold has launched a strong rally from the support zone and printed a new all-time high (ATH). I still believe we are near a local top and that the market is likely forming wave 4. It may develop as an expanded Flat (eFL) or a running Flat (rFL) — both common patterns in strong trends.
That said, the current leg up is aggressive and carries the characteristics of an impulse. So we must closely observe how this wave structure completes. As an alternative (see second chart), wave 3 may be undergoing a more substantial extension.
📌 Either way, medium- and long-term outlooks remain intact — we continue to see the unfolding of the classic Cup & Handle pattern.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🥷🏼 My Telegram
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.