XAUUSD: Megaphone patterns
Updated
Very interestingly, Gold (and stocks) have been largely sideways this year, and it's no surprise what a sideways market causes: frustration, specially for technical traders (and even worse those who trade breakouts). A key element in this year's price action is that prices have been tracing expanding patterns, where price breaks the previous extreme and suddenly turns 180º and heads back to the other end of the range. This makes for a very hard landscape to trade in, and forces the analyst to adopt a more defensive stance and quickly detect which strategies are working, and which aren't, before the drawdowns become too big.
It's possible gold breaks below support and tests the previous swing low, and the same is true of the S&P500 index. It appears to be tracing a similar pattern, and currently looks toppy. It'd be a strange ocurrence, to have the market and gold correlate, but that seems to be the case here. Conclusion: gold is a risk asset? Increasing risk of a Fed rate hike, and deflationary crisis fears looming?
Right now, the clearest timeframe has been the weekly and monthly for gold, and I will wait for the daily to look very bearish before going long gold again, to rejoin the potential uptrend seen in these larger timeframes. For the time being, I'd reccomend standing aside, or looking to short it if we break support here. Rgmov is warning bulls to be cautious with size, since it has broken down ahead of price, so, do your due diligence.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com/6CyyqnPT
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: tradingview.com/chat/
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
It's possible gold breaks below support and tests the previous swing low, and the same is true of the S&P500 index. It appears to be tracing a similar pattern, and currently looks toppy. It'd be a strange ocurrence, to have the market and gold correlate, but that seems to be the case here. Conclusion: gold is a risk asset? Increasing risk of a Fed rate hike, and deflationary crisis fears looming?
Right now, the clearest timeframe has been the weekly and monthly for gold, and I will wait for the daily to look very bearish before going long gold again, to rejoin the potential uptrend seen in these larger timeframes. For the time being, I'd reccomend standing aside, or looking to short it if we break support here. Rgmov is warning bulls to be cautious with size, since it has broken down ahead of price, so, do your due diligence.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com/6CyyqnPT
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: tradingview.com/chat/
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Note
I'm long gold as of today, entered at 1327.53 after the bearish momentum faded, stop loss at 1310.83, aiming for new yearly highs
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