How Gold Reacts to U.S. Inflation Data
Updated
Only when you experience setbacks in everything, you will realize that it is not easy to get. Things that are easily obtained are always too simple to cherish. This is human nature. Success is not because you don’t work hard enough, it’s just that you don’t persist enough. 99% of the road is gone, but it’s easy to fall in front of the 1% because you gave up too early
The most anticipated weekend is finally here, and tonight will announce the focus data of this week - the US PCE personal consumer price index in April.
From the perspective of market expectations, major institutions generally believe that this time it will be consistent with the data in March, that is, the annual rate will remain at 4.6%, while the monthly rate will remain at 0.3%.
Of course, the probability of this kind of data surprise is still very high. Considering the recent hawkish remarks of Fed officials and the high base of last year’s PCE data, I personally think that the probability of the announced value being lower than the previous value is still relatively high, but The range will not be too large.
In other words, it is a small negative for the U.S. dollar index, because it shows that inflation is still falling, but not enough.
On the other hand, there seems to be progress on the debt ceiling. According to people familiar with the matter, a stripped-down version of the U.S. debt ceiling agreement has taken shape, with the discrepancy between the negotiating parties' discretionary spending proposals less than $70 billion, and Republicans willing to make concessions on defense spending. House Speaker McCarthy said that no agreement could be reached on Thursday and that the weekend will be spent overtime. The Treasury Department is already preparing a contingency plan in case the debt ceiling is breached.
The international gold price, which has fallen for a week in a row, once reached US$1,936 per ounce this morning, only US$3 away from the important support we mentioned yesterday. It can be considered to be basically in place.
From the point of view of form, the decline of gold since 2080 has experienced the breakout of the two shock centers of AB, which is in line with the decline structure of abc.
The sharp drop last night, plus today's new low, is compared with Wednesday's adjustment period, and it will be found that both the drop and the kinetic energy column of the indicator MACD are smaller than the former, indicating that there is a divergence. This is also the logic behind today's gold price rally.
So in theory, it is possible to be an endpoint here, of course, it is at the hour level. The downward trend of the big cycle cannot be said to be over yet, and it has even just begun.
Then in terms of trading, everyone has to make a choice. Whether you are a short-term trader or a trend trader, if you are short-term, you can participate in the rebound opportunity today. This point was also mentioned in the live broadcast in the morning. Good buying points are now Look at 1944--48 is not bad. The rebound target above is 1963--1985
For trend traders, you can ignore this rebound band and wait for the uptrend to end and continue to be short.
Of course, it is also possible to combine the two. Make a distinction on the position, participate in the rebound and take part in the light position, and then increase the position after the high position is under pressure.
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