3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 1
This draft deals with the move to 2450 first.
1) insofar, this draft is same as July previous one
2) but more contained in that we are dealing with the move to 2450 only
3) which should be finished by next Thursday
4) but to also state that the base case, should be 3000 in 128 days
5) or by 10/31/2024
6) that is a 29% move
7) so let that sink in
8) I'll be more precise in the notes
1) insofar, this draft is same as July previous one
2) but more contained in that we are dealing with the move to 2450 only
3) which should be finished by next Thursday
4) but to also state that the base case, should be 3000 in 128 days
5) or by 10/31/2024
6) that is a 29% move
7) so let that sink in
8) I'll be more precise in the notes
Note
6/25, 9:21 PM, the only concern is that bold line. 1) why, bc odds favor that it get retested
2) at least once
3) AFTER next move for 2350-2355
4) and up to 3 times
5) it's true that the more times a line get tested
6) the odds of it breaking increases
7) IF THE LINE IS A HORIZONTAL LINE
8) bears hit the floor at 2288
9) have lost ground since the week before FOMC
10) furthermore, no matter which statistical method you use for measuring it
11) we are at the floor
12) stupid bears showing up talking trash
13) like I don' know how to short
14) long story short
15) if you you are medium to long term, this is last stop before the train leaves
16) and one more thing:
Note
Note
17) ok so it's 9:32 PM ET and 2318.xx as I type18) the window for the vertical spike is open until until London
19) which is 2:00 AM ET
20) I have to believe that its over once London opens
21) bc London just don't have any history of delivering a move like this
22) off the ground
23) they. never. do. it.
24) all they do is sell
25) and they been "profit-taking" every 8.5 out of 10 days since price was under 1100
26) so that move pretty much a wrap
27) secondly
28) once the move starts slow
29) develops one of two ways
30) base case is yellow like chart at top
31) bur red route above, is A VERY CLOSE SECOND PLACE
32) in my opinion, same move, just minor differences
33) but basically, price will hit both sides of the triangle one more time
34) before reversing all they way up
Note
Note
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7) continuing in chart above8) why?
9 bc if bears stop this rally to 2500
10) that is due 7/5-7/12
11) that's the same as saying bull market is over
12) bc any further delay would stop 2500 from getting hit
13 ) in which case, the 7/5-7/11 top would be 2450 OR 2430
14) this would kill the rally for 2700
15) bc you would have a true triple top coming othird week of July '
Note
16) that means you get something like this:Note
17 and it would all be over 18) it's easy, just watch these two lines:
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10:35 PM ET, let's call blue spike dead1) it's just too insane to comeback at this hour with the blue spike all the way up
2) not impossible
3) it would just be too much like a story some one wrote
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10:52 PM, yeah.. it should be red route1) about 4-5 charts up
2) red route is what I see now
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1:35 AM, 6/26, alarm woke me saying bears pushing again: Note
Note
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- as a rule, of the two blue lines only the first one really matter- why? because it represents an "increasingly negative slope'
- if bears give up the first one, the slope is STILL NEGATIVE
- but LESS SO
- and in that's a sign for the machines to pile in
- and that's all bulls need to finish this setup
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1) the machines are hunting stops with the help of the LBMA the next hour2) but NO STALLING!
3) keep this up long enough, and bears stop new all time high 2 weeks out
4) all bears have to do hold it down here for 36 hours
5) this is sufficient to change the trend 2 weeks out
Note
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6) continuing in chart above, whatever they gonna do 7) they have 12 hours to do it
8) but after that MUST HOLD IT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS
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2:36 AM ET, 2316.XX HERE'S YOUR 12 HOUR BINARY:Note
1) in chart above, price is EXACTLY AT THE BLUE WAVE RIGHT NOW2) if price breaks above it and stall, next move is 2335
3) if bears want 2295, they have to do it like this:
Note
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4) the way the curves sit for this move5) and really most moves in this pattern
6) is each time there is a bounce
7) bears have to shoot it down
8) with a deeper more negative slope
9) the minute they stop
10 ) is the the reversal to 2335
11) so at 2:43 AM ET, it is +19 or -21
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12) last notes before I sleep again13) magic number is 2317
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14) if bears lose control of this number (and it falls 2 pts every hour) 15) it's hard to see another comeback
16) besides 1-2 more retest before Monday NY open
17) but those are 1-2, 1-2 small setups ahead of the move higher
18) this is the last 10 hours bears can be a threat
19) but YOU CAN'T OWN THE ENTIRE 10 HOURS BC:
Note
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20) continuing in chart above1) and it's not obvious that will change outcomes either
2) bc bears HAVE TO HOLD IT DOWN THERE FOR 24 HOURS
3) this is much much harder to do
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4) that's it good nightNote
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11) the obvious: 2306, 2300, then if bears have it, 2295 and 228612) so what's not obvious
13) so the reasoning here is simple, bulls are late for rally
14) either they have to rally massively to catch up
15) or bears wreck the new all time high in place for 7/11
16) if they push under 2300
17) that rally will cap under 2450, then its a slam dunk triple top
Note
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18) there's no 2 ways about this19) if bears eliminate the late rally to new all time high
20) that means bull market is dead after the coming triple top
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5:47 2316.xx there's so many moves price can make here1) to be on time for 2725 on 8/2
2) we are already last possible route for gold bull market AS A WHOLE''
3) there's only a little bit more wiggle room
4) so this is why this line is so important
5) BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE TO RE-BUILD THE SETUP
6) if you get new low, you are at razor thin territory
Note
6:05 AM Note
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6:23 AM ET, 2308.XX, obviously moving for 2306 and 23001) bears have 6 maybe 7 hours
2) before they reach the point of no return
3) the zig-zag floor is 2300
4) the stick save floor is 2295
5) this is why I wanted to hit 2295 last week
6) it would get it out of the way
7) so I'll clean it up and publish at 1 PM
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6:32 AM ET1) this is not a debate
2) either you kill gold bull today
3) or that list above
4) ALL OF THOSE THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN
5) it's a math problem, not a choice
Note
6:43 AM: HERE YOU GO DRAFT 2:
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