GOLD approaching 2,340USD, technical outlook analysis
Updated
On Thursday (June 20) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price once approached the mark of 2,340 USD/ounce, increasing nearly 11 USD during the day.
Regarding basic content, there is currently no sudden impact on the market. Earlier Data released on Tuesday showed US retail sales barely grew in May, with last month's data revised down sharply, suggesting economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter.
CME's FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased slightly to 64.1% from 61% a day earlier.
In terms of the overall fundamental picture, the main factor shaping the gold price trend remains the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although gold prices have increased, the current trend is still unclear because the market is waiting for more decisive news. The basic principle is that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, meaning gold prices will benefit when interest rates are lower or expectations of interest rate cuts become stronger.
The market is expecting at least one interest rate cut from the Fed. The value of the US Dollar has been fully valued in this. So unless this changes significantly, gold prices are expected to remain supported for a long time to come.
However, with a trading week that sees little major macro data, the immediate focus will be on US weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and preliminary PMI figures on Thursday.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
Gold is still maintaining its recovery momentum from the $2,300 level and is now once again testing the technical confluence that is the pressure sent to readers in previous publications in the $2,340 - $2,345 area. This is the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge of the trend price channel, horizontal resistance of 2,345USD.
As long as gold remains below EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook remains more bearish.
On the other hand, if gold falls below $2,324 it will continue to tend to retest the $2,300 - $2,305 area in the short term.
Next, a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 level is broken below.
It is worth noting that in case the gold price moves above the EMA21, breaking the price channel, the bearish outlook will no longer be positive, but instead the increase could head towards 2,364USD in the short term and more than that. original price 2,400USD. So, for open short positions should be protected behind EMA21, after the $2,345 level is broken.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans to the downside with the following technical levels noted.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354
⚰️SL: 2360
⬆️TP1: 2349
⬆️TP2: 2344
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306
⚰️SL: 2300
⬆️TP1: 2311
⬆️TP2: 2316
Regarding basic content, there is currently no sudden impact on the market. Earlier Data released on Tuesday showed US retail sales barely grew in May, with last month's data revised down sharply, suggesting economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter.
CME's FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased slightly to 64.1% from 61% a day earlier.
In terms of the overall fundamental picture, the main factor shaping the gold price trend remains the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although gold prices have increased, the current trend is still unclear because the market is waiting for more decisive news. The basic principle is that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, meaning gold prices will benefit when interest rates are lower or expectations of interest rate cuts become stronger.
The market is expecting at least one interest rate cut from the Fed. The value of the US Dollar has been fully valued in this. So unless this changes significantly, gold prices are expected to remain supported for a long time to come.
However, with a trading week that sees little major macro data, the immediate focus will be on US weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and preliminary PMI figures on Thursday.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD Gold is still maintaining its recovery momentum from the $2,300 level and is now once again testing the technical confluence that is the pressure sent to readers in previous publications in the $2,340 - $2,345 area. This is the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge of the trend price channel, horizontal resistance of 2,345USD.
As long as gold remains below EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook remains more bearish.
On the other hand, if gold falls below $2,324 it will continue to tend to retest the $2,300 - $2,305 area in the short term.
Next, a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 level is broken below.
It is worth noting that in case the gold price moves above the EMA21, breaking the price channel, the bearish outlook will no longer be positive, but instead the increase could head towards 2,364USD in the short term and more than that. original price 2,400USD. So, for open short positions should be protected behind EMA21, after the $2,345 level is broken.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans to the downside with the following technical levels noted.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354
⚰️SL: 2360
⬆️TP1: 2349
⬆️TP2: 2344
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306
⚰️SL: 2300
⬆️TP1: 2311
⬆️TP2: 2316
Trade active
Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 40pips. Move SL to Entry🔥Note
World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (June 20), after statistics showing the weakness of the US economy reinforced the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start interest rate cut in September this year. Some experts say bulls have regained the upper hand in the gold market and are aiming for the next target of prices above 2,400 USD/oz.Note
This week, many important US economic reports will be published. In particular, investors' special attention will be paid to the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) report for May, expected to be announced by the US Department of Commerce on Friday. PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - is forecast to continue to show a deceleration in inflation...Note
- XAUUSD cannot sustain above 2,350 USD per troy ounce. Prices retraced and began consolidating around $2,300 per troy ounce, just above support.- If XAUUSD sustains above $2,300 per troy ounce, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7.
- However, if XAUUSD trends below the $2,300 per troy ounce zone, the price could drop to the next psychological support level.
Note
US officials fear that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah, between political parties and heavily armed militias in Lebanon backed by Iran. The war in Gaza has stirred long-standing conflicts with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxy groups in the Middle East.Note
On the international market, today's gold price reached 2,331 USD/ounce, an increase of 12 USD compared to the previous session. World gold prices increased when interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased. This makes gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, more attractive to other investment channels.Note
Gold is turning into a loss today as these risks increaseGold prices fell on Tuesday morning with the opening of the Asian session after yesterday’s rise, and the price of spot gold contracts fell by 0.4% to $2,325.10 per ounce, while gold futures contracts fell to $2,337, a decrease of 0.31%.
Note
🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.Note
- If XAUUSD holds above $2,300/ounce, the price could retest its previous swing high around $2,350/ounce before heading towards resistance at $2,400/ounce.- On the contrary, XAUUSD could retest the previous swing bottom at around 2,275-2,285 USD/ounce if the price closes below the support level.
Note
World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.Note
🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.Note
🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.
Note
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).Note
🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce
- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024
Note
(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)
Note
Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.
Note
On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.
Note
World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.
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