MQP DEMOGRAPHICS THESIS 1C PREWORK
Updated
HEADER - I am still on post 1B, link is below. This is just a number of thoughts before I can post 1C.
SUMMARY - Previously, in 1B, I stated that September should feature 1550. I now believe this number should be 1450. While a great deal still depends on price action before JACKSON HOLE FOMC, I want to get this page up so I do not need to explain myself if and when I post 1C last week of August.
DETAILS - There's much to be discussed, so I will post thoughts here as time allows. Please read prior posts linked below for background.
NOTES 1 - First though, for chart above...
1. Black line is support since 2005.
2. Red line is important support/resistance.
3. Blue vertical is Friday, September 23, 2022.
4. That is 46 live days from now (counting weekends).
5. As it stands right this second, odds favor the ellipse at 1400 gets hit.
6. I am aware that 1450 would need to break first, so I put the ellipse top right at 1450.
7. My expectation is price should emulate 1B prior to the breakdown after Jackson Hole.
8. If price is moderately bearish vs 1B route, THEN 1450 COULD GET HIT ON FRIDAY 9/2 OR MONDAY 9/5.
9. This would open a can of worms you don't want to see for second half of September.
10 . There exists 100% legit technical and fundamental setup for a massive break of the ellipse in this chart prior to 9/23.
11. That's all for now, will add more in time.
SUMMARY - Previously, in 1B, I stated that September should feature 1550. I now believe this number should be 1450. While a great deal still depends on price action before JACKSON HOLE FOMC, I want to get this page up so I do not need to explain myself if and when I post 1C last week of August.
DETAILS - There's much to be discussed, so I will post thoughts here as time allows. Please read prior posts linked below for background.
NOTES 1 - First though, for chart above...
1. Black line is support since 2005.
2. Red line is important support/resistance.
3. Blue vertical is Friday, September 23, 2022.
4. That is 46 live days from now (counting weekends).
5. As it stands right this second, odds favor the ellipse at 1400 gets hit.
6. I am aware that 1450 would need to break first, so I put the ellipse top right at 1450.
7. My expectation is price should emulate 1B prior to the breakdown after Jackson Hole.
8. If price is moderately bearish vs 1B route, THEN 1450 COULD GET HIT ON FRIDAY 9/2 OR MONDAY 9/5.
9. This would open a can of worms you don't want to see for second half of September.
10 . There exists 100% legit technical and fundamental setup for a massive break of the ellipse in this chart prior to 9/23.
11. That's all for now, will add more in time.
Note
NOTES 2 - For chart below, consider 2008 and 2013 breakdowns.1. It's obvious here that it should hit 1450 if and when it breaks.
2. So questions are why I think it should break and when.
Note
Note
NOTES 3 - This is the liquidity schedule we nailed march high 2070Note
1. For chart above, this is the fundamental picture of liquidity situation.2. The last catalyst that can alter this 14xx 9/23 outcome is geopolitics.
3. Meaning either China invades Taiwan or some extreme terrorist attack.
Note
NOTES 4 - EXTREME LIQUIDITY CRISIS IS DEVELOPING. This next chart is super important:Note
1. The left chart is 8D bar.2. The right chart is 12H bar.
Note
3. If you want to view it on IRL, get it from my scripts page..4. The ratio for the left side is 5/8. For right side it's 4/8.
Note
5. For context, that means that 5 X 8-day bars = 4 X 12H bars6. For the right side we are the 5th bar from the bottom.
Note
7. But price action doesn't necessarily INCLUDE THE WHOLE BAR. 8. Breaking this down further, this comes to about 4.2 12-H bars for this move.
9. This means 5.25 8D bars or 42 trading days.
10. For context only, that puts at exactly SEPTEMBER 27TH AT 1125.
11. So that's the extreme limits of this move.
12. My base case is only HALF THAT at 1450, so 315 down from here instead of 640.
13. That means I AM BEING ENTIRELY REASONABLE.
14. Look at the what the bold navy-purple curve would have done vs what it is doing now.
Note
16. Consider this contrast vs 2008.Note
17. The blue arrow going under 1300 is a COPY AND PASTE OF SAME ARROW in 2008 on the left. 18. It's an example of possible of deviation of price from wave in a comparable situation.
19. So those are the majority of my thoughts as thesis.
20. What we need now is the perfect line-by-line setup.
21. Until then, we are still on 1B.
Note
22. Correction needed for blue arrows:Note
NOTES 5 - SAME CHART AT 1-DAY BAR BELOW:Note
1. Zooming in, here is same exercise w/ 2-way deviation.2. The double-pointed blue arrows are the same cut/paste.
3. The max deviation should be equivalent up and down.
4. Right now at exactly 1400 for 9/23.
5. So we left off at wave 640-period for dark navy purple.
6. In this chart the colors match.
7. Next time, I zoom in to 3 hour bars to show 320-, 160-, and 80- periodic waves.
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