XAU / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
Updated
This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.
| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAUUSD <
How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated?
MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAUUSD <- We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
- This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
- Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it.
How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated?
MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The all-time high from 2011 has been attempted to turn into support since 2020, which has been unsuccessful to date.
- At this moment, we are above this all-time high, running it for a retest.
- A 3-year RANGE has formed under this POI, which will serve as additional support.
- We are also in a downtrend channel whose upper trend line continues to be contested.
- Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.
- There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken through first - both scenarios can thus not be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you and happy trading!Z
Note
1-MONTH - INTERVAL2-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-DAY - INTERVAL
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle close was below the close of the last HL, which underlines the selling pressure and could mean the initiation of a further down-sale.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as resistance.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as support and achieved several reactions in the past.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD)
= 0.88 (1834.316 USD)
= 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
! ATTENTION - the visually displayed FIBs (0.618; 0.65; 0.328) are for orientation purposes only and have already been processed in the past!
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms the negative momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms the negative momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline served as support and is already confirmed by the market as resistance in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, one can expect a run-up to the trend channel trend line in the INTRA-DAY and depending on the INTRA-DAY reaction, the down-sale continues or is interrupted.
> The next HTF support is the WEEK DEMAND zone and individual MAs, which are mentioned in the following lines.
> From the current situation, I expect another ab-sale.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (1846,500 - 1864,500 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1918,091 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1934,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 25% line, showing very strong bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a temporary trend reversal.
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred above the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trend line served as resistance and is already confirmed by the market as support in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, we can expect a bullish continuation in INTRA-DAY until the next significant resistance areas are reached.
> All these arguments, which speak for a trend reversal - we still closed below the "Higher High" of 2011 (1921.070), which is still to be interpreted bearish.
> The next HTF resistance is the WEEKLY SUPPLY zone, short-term Mas and the overriding 0.328 FIB.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.88 (1866.965 - 1834.316 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100 (1848.971–1868.635 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1942.916 USD) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.65 (1947.755 - 1951.056 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1924,000–1955,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 40% line, showing rising momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle closes with a strong wick, which underlines the selling pressure.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1930.428 - 1892.938 points)
- MA | 5; 8 (1934.727- 1920.129 USD)
- POI | 1925,000 & 1912,500 & 1903,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (1961.408 - 1974.948 USD)
- MA | 20 (1951.686 USD)
- POI | 1960,000
- MSB | HTF = LH/23 (1987,530)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend but could change its direction.
> The RSI indicator is above the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle close has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure & despite this, the candle has no wick.
> The candle broke back into the HTF downtrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The Higher High from 2011 (1921.070) serves as the next very strong support and should show a reaction in the (Intraday / Weekly).
> If the Higher High fails to withstand selling pressure, the HTF sideways trend channel comes into play next and will provide significant resistance.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has been in place since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD and has been confirmed as support.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend, but could change direction.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.