XAUUSD to Bounce then Lower Low? Gold double bottom wont hold ?

Updated

Gold still shows downward momentum, but is at support right now.
We can expect a bounce of some sort here, then continuation down.
I do think the ABC is part of a wave IV, with a wave V up to yet come.

1275 would be a bullish bounce.
1269 would be technically ideal.
1262 could easily be final target.

This is a follow up to my last call for a short

XAUUSD short Idea: Gold scalp to swing trade opportunity

Bigger picture and expected leg up later

XAUUSD retrace watch: Gold has one more leg UP ?

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Already noticing resistance at the short term Blue 5.236 which was previous support

my bounce plot might be too optimistic, but I do expect to get past this immediate resistance.

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^^ oops, should read blue "5.618" not 5.236

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Bounced as expected. My placement of wave 4 end was a bit arbitrary but looks close

Under the microscope (1min): Fib of bounce looks quite coherent

that means to me that the bounce has some legs. This may be just one leg in progress, which will probably reach the 4.236 at 1296.81. Bounce thus far could be an 'A' of an abc sub-wave of the wave 4 bounce (wave 4's are often made of 3 subwaves). Lets see what happens this Friday. My guess is it will complete this wave to the 4.236 or possibly the 4.618.

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Looking at the bounce under a microscope:

The move up looks well defined by the .618's. The fib down looks like possible .382 frequency. Looking at the confluence zones, we see two possible ''trenches" where the bull/bear soldiers might be stationed. This will be an interesting battle as we go into UK session in an hour.

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Trench Warfare in full battle mode

(I has the bottom zone mis-identified, shudda gone with the purple 2.382 instead of the 2.618, the clue was in the purple 1.382 reflection above which I mistakenly ignored.

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So it loos like 91.50 will be bears' last stand, and 97.50 will be bulls' victory flag

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Trench warfare round 3

just a few minutes before NFP news so not putting much weight on this range, but interesting how well dug out each zone is, and how it looks like bears are winning (getting more yards)

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Whipsaw from NFP news as expected. BUT of note is the confirmation of the x.382 frequency on the purple fib

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Approaching resistance just shy of 1300 round

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