TODAYS RECAP — March 27 Was a Classic Shakeout Day. A textbook shakeout in XAU/USD, driven by market maker manipulation, volume distribution, and liquidity engineering.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK — March 28, 2025
Triple Threat Day: End of Week, End of Month, End of Q1.
Institutions will shape the Q1 close intentionally.
1. Book Rebalancing in Play
• Expect:
• Q1 profit locking
• Loss hiding
• Positioning games likely, especially into NY close.
2. Deceptive Order Flow
• Breakouts at highs/lows likely fake.
• Watch for:
• “Break and reverse” moves
• False drops into demand / false rallies into supply
III. SCENARIO PROJECTIONS — March 28
Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias)
Reasons:
• Daily structure remains bullish
• Shakeout held support
• Macro still supports gold (safe haven bid)
Confirmation Checklist:
• VWAP Mid ($3056) reclaimed and held
• Volume above $3060–$3074
• Asia or London delivers structure
Target Path:
• TP1: $3074.70 (DynaR RES 2)
• TP2: $3090.00 (Fib ext 1.618)
• TP3: $3105.00 (Q1 high magnet)
Scenario B: Distribution & Drop (Contingency Bias)
Reasons:
• If today was an institutional sell trap
• RSI divergence lingers
• DXY strength could trigger selling
Bearish Confirmation:
• Price fails to hold $3050 on open
• Red candles with increasing volume
• No VWAP reclaim during London
Target Path:
• TP1: $3034.48 (DynaR SUP 2)
• TP2: $3012.00 (FVG Fill + 21 SMA)
• TP3: $2995.00 (Deep VAL flush)
IV. SESSION PLAYBOOK — Cairo Local Time
V. EXECUTION GAME PLAN
Pre-Asia Preparation:
• No early entries
• Mark VWAP, POC, VAL/VAH from March 27
• Anticipate:
• Sweep under $3034
• Fake breakout above $3066
Execution Triggers:
• Volume + VWAP alignment
• Key zones: Hold/reject VWAP, POC, SUP/RES
• RSI divergence = no chasing
Risk Management:
• Tighten stops after NY open
• Don’t hold trades past 6PM Cairo unless trailing
• Lock in partials aggressively during spikes
VI. SCENARIOS RECAP TABLE
Final Note: Institutional Psychology Over Signals
“Tomorrow isn’t a technical day. It’s a story day. Institutions will use gold to close the quarter with purpose. Be reactive, not predictive. Trade what they show you — not what you want to see.”
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK — March 28, 2025
Triple Threat Day: End of Week, End of Month, End of Q1.
Institutions will shape the Q1 close intentionally.
1. Book Rebalancing in Play
• Expect:
• Q1 profit locking
• Loss hiding
• Positioning games likely, especially into NY close.
2. Deceptive Order Flow
• Breakouts at highs/lows likely fake.
• Watch for:
• “Break and reverse” moves
• False drops into demand / false rallies into supply
III. SCENARIO PROJECTIONS — March 28
Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias)
Reasons:
• Daily structure remains bullish
• Shakeout held support
• Macro still supports gold (safe haven bid)
Confirmation Checklist:
• VWAP Mid ($3056) reclaimed and held
• Volume above $3060–$3074
• Asia or London delivers structure
Target Path:
• TP1: $3074.70 (DynaR RES 2)
• TP2: $3090.00 (Fib ext 1.618)
• TP3: $3105.00 (Q1 high magnet)
Scenario B: Distribution & Drop (Contingency Bias)
Reasons:
• If today was an institutional sell trap
• RSI divergence lingers
• DXY strength could trigger selling
Bearish Confirmation:
• Price fails to hold $3050 on open
• Red candles with increasing volume
• No VWAP reclaim during London
Target Path:
• TP1: $3034.48 (DynaR SUP 2)
• TP2: $3012.00 (FVG Fill + 21 SMA)
• TP3: $2995.00 (Deep VAL flush)
IV. SESSION PLAYBOOK — Cairo Local Time
V. EXECUTION GAME PLAN
Pre-Asia Preparation:
• No early entries
• Mark VWAP, POC, VAL/VAH from March 27
• Anticipate:
• Sweep under $3034
• Fake breakout above $3066
Execution Triggers:
• Volume + VWAP alignment
• Key zones: Hold/reject VWAP, POC, SUP/RES
• RSI divergence = no chasing
Risk Management:
• Tighten stops after NY open
• Don’t hold trades past 6PM Cairo unless trailing
• Lock in partials aggressively during spikes
VI. SCENARIOS RECAP TABLE
Final Note: Institutional Psychology Over Signals
“Tomorrow isn’t a technical day. It’s a story day. Institutions will use gold to close the quarter with purpose. Be reactive, not predictive. Trade what they show you — not what you want to see.”
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.