XAU/USD Gold Potential Consolidation Analysis

Updated

Chart is self-explanatory. Notice the change of character on first peak - no decline has been this sudden since last consolidation range. The volume on the peak is also the highest since the markup (ignore news peaks). This 'change of character' tell us that something different is happening in the market now. It was in markup, so therefore, it may be safe to say that it is doing something other than markup now - potentially a new consolidation range.

Price action and volume analysis in this area will tell us what is happening as time unfolds.
I will not take a position until the above has been analysed and a direction out of the range is evident.

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Update on the range and what I'm looking for:

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Another update and indication that we are doing the right thing:

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Price being pushed back into the range when it tries to leave through the top may be seen as an early indication of distribution by some. However, I am going to wait until the end of Phase B. Phase C (UTAD or spring) is where we confirm whether it is accumulation or distribution and is usually the ideal place for first entry. It will offer the best R:R profile and a very tight SL. To take a trade before we complete Phase B is (unnecessary) higher risk.

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Further update on range behaviour and bounds:

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This is why you should stay calm and not enter early until you figure out what is happening! UT in Phase B seemed to keep rising which is a little unusual. Then I studied the reactions after BC. It seems we may have a non-horizontal/upward/strong consolidation range. Again, time will tell what's going on.

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Looking like distribution, but, will wait and see to minimise risk.

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Fell asleep so could no longer analyse live. Woke up and have seen this.

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95 pip TP based on range size. SL 1264.

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uk.tradingview.com/chart/IeyFhnHu/

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wrong link previously

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Scaling in on retests is normal for Wyckoffians.

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I hope you can see the scale in chance above on the lowest dotted line.

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Sensible place to TP here:

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markdown channel for final TP around 1230. Will probably leave markdown channel with or without a retest at that point.

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Sometimes zooming out can help give a clearer picture. It helped find the markdown channel in this case.

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Channel still being respected in markdown:

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Trade published from this stage:

XAU Gold Short (LIVE Analysis From Before Trade Too)

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Go to this link (posted below too) to continue this analysis and trade.

AbsS

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