XAUUSD: 2-month downtrend analysis
Updated
The 2-month bars in gold show a very clear downtrend, and its dynamics. The 'Time at mode' technique shows us that bears drove the price down, after a distribution period of 16 months at the top, followed by a very sharp decline, which met the prognosticated target quickly, before stalling for another 18 months. The next decline wasn't as sharp, and we noticed that when the forecasted downtrend duration had ended, a massive rally started in gold.
This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom.
Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened.
Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red.
We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom.
Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened.
Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red.
We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Still valid, let's watch this.
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