2021-07-13 XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

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-Previous week price has been doing aggressive whipsaw in a range highs of 1812 KL and lows of 1795 KL
-Start of the week we saw price go down below 1795 KL (which is a selling level for us) however, we did not get our price confirmation to take sells and price quickly snapped back in its range to go back to the highs of the range which is 1812 KL

- With the slew of Economic Data this week we can anticipate to see price either break above 1812 KL and making new Intraday Highs
or
- Price break below and create new Intraday lows, being mindful of the 1789 KL as we saw an Order Block get created (Consolidation zone) and after the OB we saw a breakout to new Highs. High price sensitivity area

Today's Economic Data is CORE CPI
- with the CORE CPI we are expecting the numbers to be 0.4% which is lower than previous months 0.7%
- if CPI stays above than forecasted that is a positive confluence for the US $ at which point we can US $ gaining strength and Gold declining in value (sells)
- if CPI is below forecasted and poor figueres, than that is a negative confluence for the US $ to lose strength and see weakness and which point we can see Gold gain value (buys)

CPI is used to determine the price of consumer goods and services, it is a leading indicator that determines the consumer inflation rate. The feds want to see people working jobs, getting paid, using the money to buy goods and services which essentially circulates $$$ into the Economy, Economic Activity thru active transactions.

When Inflation occurs we want to take note that due to an oversupply of the US $ it creates an inflated Dollar and a devalued $$ which causes cost of services and goods to go up. Thus, US $ losing its purchasing/ buying power

Note: When the US $ losing its purchasing / buying power this is not good for the Economy, as other countries can make trade deals at a lower rate than usually.


Trade Ideas:
SAFE TRADES
1. buys above 1812 KL with confirmations of a 30min and 1hr candle closures above with fundamental catalyst which is a negatives figures for the CORE CPI data, Weaker US $.
2. Sells below 1975KL with confirmations of a 30min and 1 hr candle closures below with a fundamental catalyst which is positive figures for the CORE CPI data, stronger US $

HIGH RISK TRADES
1. buys at 1803KL 30m/1h candle body closes above and LTF confirmations / shift of structure + previous price sensitivity still holds
2. sells at 1812KL w/ 30m/1hr candle body closes below and LTF confirmations / shift of structure + buyers exhaustion

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