(CPI) in September 2024 expected to increase 2.3%
The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index (CPI) for the month of September 2024 is 2.3%.
If 2.3% is the real yr-over-yr growth withinside the CPI, it'll mark the smallest growth withinside the quantity because February 2021 (1.7%).
The August 2024 client rate index expanded through 2.five% (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted), in comparison to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the beyond 12 months, the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate in five months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen quick of the median estimate in five months. It is thrilling to notice that real CPI quantity has been under the estimate over the last 4 months (May 2024 via August 2024). Over the beyond five years (60 months), the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen quick of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.3% is primarily based totally on 17 estimates gathered through FactSet. These CPI estimates variety from a low of 2.20% to a excessive of 2.40%, for a variety of 20 bps. This unfold is smaller than the trailing 12-month common unfold among the low and excessive estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the five-yr (60 month) common unfold among the low and excessive estimate forty nine bps.
The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index apart from food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.
Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will launch the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.
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If 2.3% is the real yr-over-yr growth withinside the CPI, it'll mark the smallest growth withinside the quantity because February 2021 (1.7%).
The August 2024 client rate index expanded through 2.five% (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted), in comparison to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the beyond 12 months, the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate in five months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen quick of the median estimate in five months. It is thrilling to notice that real CPI quantity has been under the estimate over the last 4 months (May 2024 via August 2024). Over the beyond five years (60 months), the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen quick of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.3% is primarily based totally on 17 estimates gathered through FactSet. These CPI estimates variety from a low of 2.20% to a excessive of 2.40%, for a variety of 20 bps. This unfold is smaller than the trailing 12-month common unfold among the low and excessive estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the five-yr (60 month) common unfold among the low and excessive estimate forty nine bps.
The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index apart from food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.
Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will launch the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.
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✔️TP1: 2617
✔️TP2: 2627
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2595
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎XAUUSD Sell limit 2637 - 2635💎
✔️TP1: 2627
✔️TP2: 2617
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2653
Note
The Fed has just released the minutes of its September 17-18 meeting, which noted that the pace of future reductions will not be determined by the initial reduction (the Fed just reduced interest rates by 0.5% last month). . Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she wants smaller cuts ahead, given lingering inflation risks and significant uncertainties about the economic outlook.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.