Previous week of July 4th -9th:
- We can see that price has been doing very aggressive whipsaw in a range between 1812 KL highs and 1795 KL lows. Due to Feds Sentiments indecision with previously giving lots of signals for Tapering and Interest Rate Hikes, now putting a halt to Taper / Interest Hike Talks and deems Economic Recovery is not where it needs to be (Demand not being filled in the labor markets/ poor PMI figures)
- We were in a period of indecision, however DXY printed new Intraday highs and then buyers were relieved and price fell to 92.120 level but still maintained bullish intraday structure and respecting previous higher low at 92.040
Previous Week Economic Data Review / Impacts:
July 6th, 2021:
10am - ISM Services PMI: ISM results were below than forecast at 60.1, forecast of 63.4. Figures below forecast is negative confluence for US Dollar weakness but, however it did not make much of an impact as US Dollar held strength and intraday bullish market structure approaching HTF bearish TL
July 7th, 2021:
10am - JOLTS Job Opening: Data was below forecast at 9.21M, forecast being 9.30M. did not have too much of an impact even though it was below the forecast, Stocks ranged, Vix Ranged, overall did not have altering effects on market sentiment
2pm- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Meeting minutes is a summary of previous months actual FOMC / Federal Reserve Meeting regarding Monetary Policy Statement. Few updates were seen such as Tapering stimulus + Interest Rate Hike in around 2023. This was enough for investor to start pricing in Dollar strength, stock markets dipped from highs and Gold dropped.
The week after Powell testified we saw he softened the sentiment about Tapering Interest Rate Hike and the focus is still on seeing more Economic Recovery, especially in the labor markets.
FOMC Meeting Minutes, continued with Dollar Strength but did not gave more signs of what they want to see to begin Tapering and Interest Rate Hikes (PMI, Unemployment)
Feds will be taking it slow to take away Stimulus: they do not want to create volatility in the Housing Market, not seeing Economic Data Recover, Last few Job Report and PMI figures have been negative.
July 8th, 2021:
8:30am - Unemployment Claims: Report shows that there were more claims than expected which is 373K, forecast of 345K- Negative confluence for a weak US Dollar which reflects the DXY on the 1hr chart you can see that we dropped from 92.47 to 92.24 continuing the decline after intraday highs.
Upcoming week July 11th - 16th:
we have slew of Economic Data being released:
Tuesday 13th: 8:30am CPI, CORE CPI
Wednesday 14th: 8:30am PPI, CORE PPI 12pm Fed Chair Testifies
Thursday 15th: 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims 9:15am Industrial Production 9:30 am Fed Chair Testifies
Friday 16th: 8:30am Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales. 10am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For this upcoming week I anticipate to see inflation in consumer goods, producer goods to increase and having a negative impact on Economic Recovery as well as weak PMI figures, as well as core retail sales I anticipate to see negative results as forecast is below previous months rate.
Outlook for Gold:
Technically speaking we created a double bottom at 1755 KL (HTF Bullish support zone) and with continued slow Economic Recovery to see Gold push to the highs 1912 KL. After Feds sentiment of Taper Talks and approaching closer to Interest Rate Hikes (June 16th) we had an aggressive decline in Gold from 1912 KL highs to 1760 lows + double bottom. I am anticipating to make a run back to the highs and correcting the 1000+ pip drop before starting to see signs of Economic Recovery and Data reflecting that sentiment. But, until then I will be looking at the intraday plays at the KL of 1812 highs and 1795 lows as stated in the chart.
- We can see that price has been doing very aggressive whipsaw in a range between 1812 KL highs and 1795 KL lows. Due to Feds Sentiments indecision with previously giving lots of signals for Tapering and Interest Rate Hikes, now putting a halt to Taper / Interest Hike Talks and deems Economic Recovery is not where it needs to be (Demand not being filled in the labor markets/ poor PMI figures)
- We were in a period of indecision, however DXY printed new Intraday highs and then buyers were relieved and price fell to 92.120 level but still maintained bullish intraday structure and respecting previous higher low at 92.040
Previous Week Economic Data Review / Impacts:
July 6th, 2021:
10am - ISM Services PMI: ISM results were below than forecast at 60.1, forecast of 63.4. Figures below forecast is negative confluence for US Dollar weakness but, however it did not make much of an impact as US Dollar held strength and intraday bullish market structure approaching HTF bearish TL
July 7th, 2021:
10am - JOLTS Job Opening: Data was below forecast at 9.21M, forecast being 9.30M. did not have too much of an impact even though it was below the forecast, Stocks ranged, Vix Ranged, overall did not have altering effects on market sentiment
2pm- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Meeting minutes is a summary of previous months actual FOMC / Federal Reserve Meeting regarding Monetary Policy Statement. Few updates were seen such as Tapering stimulus + Interest Rate Hike in around 2023. This was enough for investor to start pricing in Dollar strength, stock markets dipped from highs and Gold dropped.
The week after Powell testified we saw he softened the sentiment about Tapering Interest Rate Hike and the focus is still on seeing more Economic Recovery, especially in the labor markets.
FOMC Meeting Minutes, continued with Dollar Strength but did not gave more signs of what they want to see to begin Tapering and Interest Rate Hikes (PMI, Unemployment)
Feds will be taking it slow to take away Stimulus: they do not want to create volatility in the Housing Market, not seeing Economic Data Recover, Last few Job Report and PMI figures have been negative.
July 8th, 2021:
8:30am - Unemployment Claims: Report shows that there were more claims than expected which is 373K, forecast of 345K- Negative confluence for a weak US Dollar which reflects the DXY on the 1hr chart you can see that we dropped from 92.47 to 92.24 continuing the decline after intraday highs.
Upcoming week July 11th - 16th:
we have slew of Economic Data being released:
Tuesday 13th: 8:30am CPI, CORE CPI
Wednesday 14th: 8:30am PPI, CORE PPI 12pm Fed Chair Testifies
Thursday 15th: 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims 9:15am Industrial Production 9:30 am Fed Chair Testifies
Friday 16th: 8:30am Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales. 10am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For this upcoming week I anticipate to see inflation in consumer goods, producer goods to increase and having a negative impact on Economic Recovery as well as weak PMI figures, as well as core retail sales I anticipate to see negative results as forecast is below previous months rate.
Outlook for Gold:
Technically speaking we created a double bottom at 1755 KL (HTF Bullish support zone) and with continued slow Economic Recovery to see Gold push to the highs 1912 KL. After Feds sentiment of Taper Talks and approaching closer to Interest Rate Hikes (June 16th) we had an aggressive decline in Gold from 1912 KL highs to 1760 lows + double bottom. I am anticipating to make a run back to the highs and correcting the 1000+ pip drop before starting to see signs of Economic Recovery and Data reflecting that sentiment. But, until then I will be looking at the intraday plays at the KL of 1812 highs and 1795 lows as stated in the chart.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.