Core Logic
Bullish Factors
Strong safe-haven demand: Global trade tensions (Trump tariffs, Indian/Brazilian retaliation) and geopolitical uncertainty (expected US-Russia meeting) support gold prices.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut: Weak US employment data (worst-than-expected initial jobless claims) strengthens the possibility of a September rate cut, and the dollar is under pressure, which is positive for gold.
Central Bank Holdings: China has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, a long-term bullish signal.
Bearish Risks
Technical Pressure: The 3400-3410 area is key resistance. The monthly chart has risen and fallen for four consecutive months, and the upper shadow indicates selling pressure at a high level.
Signs of Bullish Exhaustion: Despite a flurry of positive news, gold prices have failed to hold above 3400. A weakening of positive momentum or a sudden negative impact could trigger a pullback.
Key Technical Levels
Upper Resistance: 3408-3418 (a breakout could test the historical high of 3430-3450).
Support below: 3370-3360 (if broken, it could test the mid-term support levels of 3350 and 3270).
Next Week's Trading Strategy
1. Main Direction: Mainly Sell High
Entry Timing:
If gold prices rebound to the 3408-3418 support area and find resistance (if the daily chart fails to hold above 3400), short positions can be placed in batches with a stop-loss above 3425 and a target of 3370-3360. A break below targets 3350.
Aggressive Strategy: If gold prices rise rapidly to 3415-3420 in the early Asian session, a small position can be used to test short positions with a stop-loss at 3430.
2. Supporting Trading Strategy: Short-term Buy on Pullbacks
Entry Timing:
If the price first retraces back to the 3370-3360 support area and stabilizes (a positive close on the 30-minute candlestick chart), a short-term buy order can be entered with a stop-loss at 3355 and a target of 3385-3400.
Caution on Breakouts: If it falls below 3360, set strict stop-loss orders on long positions and avoid counter-trend trading.
3. Response to Breakouts
Breakout above 3418: Wait and see if it holds above 3420. If it breaks through at the daily close, discontinue your short selling strategy and wait for a higher level (3440-3450) before positioning for a medium-term short position.
Breakdown below 3360: Be cautious when chasing short positions, monitor the support level at 3350, and avoid short-term pullbacks.
Risk Warning
Sensitive News Period: Trump's policy moves and speeches by Federal Reserve officials (such as Waller's expected nomination as chairman) may trigger significant volatility.
Time Window: If a market fails to establish a direction on Friday, August 8th, be wary of a market reversal at the beginning of next week, Pay special attention to the gap (gap up or gap down) on August 11 (Monday).
In summary: Gold is supported in the short term by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts, but technically, it faces significant pressure from high levels. It is recommended to sell short at the high resistance level of 3408-3418 and strictly stop loss. If it breaks below 3370, follow up with selling and shorting to target 3350. Long positions are only used as a supplementary strategy, with quick entry and exit.
Trade active
Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies (August 12, 2025)
News Analysis
Geopolitical Risks Ease
US President Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 to discuss possible solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Market expectations for a thaw in geopolitical tensions have increased, weakening gold's safe-haven demand.
If the US and Russia reach an agreement, this could further reduce safe-haven buying for gold, potentially keeping gold prices under pressure in the short term.
US CPI Data a Key Focus
The US July CPI data will be released today (August 12). Markets expect the core CPI annual rate to rise to 3%, above the Fed's 2% target. If the data exceeds expectations, it could reinforce market expectations of a delay in the Fed's rate cuts, negative for gold. Conversely, if inflation is mild, it could boost gold prices.
Recent Fed officials have taken a hawkish stance, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Governor Bowman both citing a weak labor market. However, market expectations for a September rate cut remain uncertain.
Uncertainty surrounding gold tariffs
Last week, gold prices fluctuated sharply due to news that the US would impose tariffs on imported gold bars. However, the White House subsequently stated that it would clarify the policy to avoid the misapplication of tariffs. Further clarity on the policy may ease supply-side concerns, but the short-term market remains sensitive.
Technical Analysis
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 3365-3375 (support broken earlier in the session turned into resistance), 3400 (psychological barrier), 3430-3450 (previous high).
Support: 3350 (short-term key support), 3330-3320 (a break below would accelerate the decline), 3300 (psychological barrier), 3270 (medium-term support).
Trend Analysis
Gold prices fell below the key support level of 3380 in early trading on Monday, weakening the technical pattern and forming a short-term top structure, with bears taking the lead. If today's CPI data is bearish, gold prices could fall further to the 3330-3300 range. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it could rebound to test resistance at 3380-3400.
Trading Recommendations
Short-Term Sell-Short Trading Strategy: Focus on shorting on rebounds. If the price encounters resistance in the 3365-3375 area, consider shorting, with a target of 3330-3320.
Short-Term Buy-Long Trading Strategy: If gold prices stabilize in the 3330-3320 area, try a small long position with a stop-loss below 3315, targeting 3360-3380.
Summary
Gold's technical outlook is bearish in the short term, influenced by easing geopolitical risks, Fed policy expectations, and CPI data. If today's CPI data reinforces hawkish expectations, gold prices could fall further to the 3300-3330 support level. If the data is dovish, a rebound is possible. Investors need to pay close attention to the market reaction after the data is released and strictly control risks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.