XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis with KSF
XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis with Key Success Factors (KSF)
Step 1: Technical Analysis with FVG and Price Detachment Integration
Current Price Overview:
Current Price (CP): $2,706.40
EMA 8: $2,710.32
EMA 21: $2,712.17
SMA 50: $2,712.27
30-Minute Chart (Dominant Chart)
Trend Assessment:
EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50 Alignment:
Current price is below all major moving averages (EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50), indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Bearish detachment observed of ~$6 below EMA-21 and ~$5.87 below SMA-50.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is under the baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing bearish trend dominance.
Detachment: ~$6 below Cloud baseline indicates a potential pullback setup to mean-reversion zones.
Candlestick Pattern:
Current pattern resembles a "Doji with Bearish Rejection Wicks", showing indecision but likely bearish continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Bullish FVGs (Support):
$2,700–$2,703 (untested).
$2,695–$2,698 (secondary).
Bearish FVGs (Resistance):
$2,712–$2,715 (tested and rejected).
$2,720–$2,725 (newly formed zone, untested).
Interaction:
Price is currently rejecting tested bearish FVG at $2,712, aligning with SMA-50 resistance.
Key Levels:
Support:
$2,700 (bullish FVG).
$2,695 (Fibonacci 50% retracement zone).
Resistance:
$2,712–$2,715 (Bearish FVG).
$2,720–$2,725 (untested FVG).
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Stabilized near 43 (bearish but weakening), with slight divergence vs. price action.
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover in the oversold zone (<20) indicates near-term reversal potential.
ADX: 22, showing weak directional trend strength.
Higher Timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily)
1H Chart:
EMA-21 ($2,712) acting as resistance, with bearish FVG at $2,715–$2,720.
Detachment:
Price detached ~$6 from Ichimoku baseline.
Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing likely to form upon close below $2,705.
4H Chart:
Bollinger Band Upper Limit at $2,725 indicates overextension.
Key Zone: Pullback support at $2,700 aligns with Fibonacci 61.8%.
Daily Chart:
Long-term trend remains bullish, but resistance at $2,730.
Support zone intact near $2,690 (Fibonacci confluence).
Lower Timeframes (5M, 15M)
5M Chart:
Price forming 3 rejection wicks near $2,707.
RSI climbing from 38 to 45 (weakening bearish momentum).
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover near oversold zone.
15M Chart:
Stochastic RSI bullish crossover aligns with support at $2,703.
Price action shows a forming basing structure near $2,705.
Step 2: Key Success Factors (KSF) Scenarios
Bullish Rejection Scenarios:
Rejection from $2,700–$2,703:
Trigger: Long lower wicks on 30M chart.
RSI Divergence on 15M required.
Volume Confirmation:
Positive Volume spike >40%.
Bearish Rejection Scenarios:
Rejection at $2,712:
Bearish divergence (price vs. RSI).
ADX Trend Exhaustion <25.
Step 3: Multi-Timeframe Entry Plans
Long Entry Plan:
Aggressive Scalping Long:
Trigger: Hold above $2,703 on 5M chart.
Entry: $2,704.
SL: $2,701.
TP1: $2,708.
TP2: $2,712.
Breakout Long:
Trigger: 30M close above $2,712.
Entry: $2,713.
SL: $2,710.
TP1: $2,715.
TP2: $2,720.
Short Entry Plan:
Aggressive Scalping Short:
Trigger: Rejection at $2,712.
Entry: $2,712.
SL: $2,715.
TP1: $2,708.
TP2: $2,705.
Step 4: Volume Profile Analysis
30M Volume Analysis:
Positive volume increasing by 15%.
Negative volume at resistance zones ($2,712–$2,715).
Lower Timeframe Volume:
5M spikes in Positive Volume near $2,705.
Step 5: Final Trading Outlook
Entry Type Entry Price Stop Loss TP1 TP2 Risk:Reward
Scalping Long $2,704 $2,701 $2,708 $2,712 1:2
Breakout Long $2,713 $2,710 $2,715 $2,720 1:2.5
Scalping Short $2,712 $2,715 $2,708 $2,705 1:1.5
Executive Summary:
Short-term Bearish bias as price rejects FVG at $2,712.
Bullish Scenarios at $2,703 depend on volume confirmation.
Watch for divergences (RSI/Stochastic RSI) on 15M and 30M charts for scalping opportunities.
Step 1: Technical Analysis with FVG and Price Detachment Integration
Current Price Overview:
Current Price (CP): $2,706.40
EMA 8: $2,710.32
EMA 21: $2,712.17
SMA 50: $2,712.27
30-Minute Chart (Dominant Chart)
Trend Assessment:
EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50 Alignment:
Current price is below all major moving averages (EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50), indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Bearish detachment observed of ~$6 below EMA-21 and ~$5.87 below SMA-50.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is under the baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing bearish trend dominance.
Detachment: ~$6 below Cloud baseline indicates a potential pullback setup to mean-reversion zones.
Candlestick Pattern:
Current pattern resembles a "Doji with Bearish Rejection Wicks", showing indecision but likely bearish continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Bullish FVGs (Support):
$2,700–$2,703 (untested).
$2,695–$2,698 (secondary).
Bearish FVGs (Resistance):
$2,712–$2,715 (tested and rejected).
$2,720–$2,725 (newly formed zone, untested).
Interaction:
Price is currently rejecting tested bearish FVG at $2,712, aligning with SMA-50 resistance.
Key Levels:
Support:
$2,700 (bullish FVG).
$2,695 (Fibonacci 50% retracement zone).
Resistance:
$2,712–$2,715 (Bearish FVG).
$2,720–$2,725 (untested FVG).
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Stabilized near 43 (bearish but weakening), with slight divergence vs. price action.
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover in the oversold zone (<20) indicates near-term reversal potential.
ADX: 22, showing weak directional trend strength.
Higher Timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily)
1H Chart:
EMA-21 ($2,712) acting as resistance, with bearish FVG at $2,715–$2,720.
Detachment:
Price detached ~$6 from Ichimoku baseline.
Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing likely to form upon close below $2,705.
4H Chart:
Bollinger Band Upper Limit at $2,725 indicates overextension.
Key Zone: Pullback support at $2,700 aligns with Fibonacci 61.8%.
Daily Chart:
Long-term trend remains bullish, but resistance at $2,730.
Support zone intact near $2,690 (Fibonacci confluence).
Lower Timeframes (5M, 15M)
5M Chart:
Price forming 3 rejection wicks near $2,707.
RSI climbing from 38 to 45 (weakening bearish momentum).
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover near oversold zone.
15M Chart:
Stochastic RSI bullish crossover aligns with support at $2,703.
Price action shows a forming basing structure near $2,705.
Step 2: Key Success Factors (KSF) Scenarios
Bullish Rejection Scenarios:
Rejection from $2,700–$2,703:
Trigger: Long lower wicks on 30M chart.
RSI Divergence on 15M required.
Volume Confirmation:
Positive Volume spike >40%.
Bearish Rejection Scenarios:
Rejection at $2,712:
Bearish divergence (price vs. RSI).
ADX Trend Exhaustion <25.
Step 3: Multi-Timeframe Entry Plans
Long Entry Plan:
Aggressive Scalping Long:
Trigger: Hold above $2,703 on 5M chart.
Entry: $2,704.
SL: $2,701.
TP1: $2,708.
TP2: $2,712.
Breakout Long:
Trigger: 30M close above $2,712.
Entry: $2,713.
SL: $2,710.
TP1: $2,715.
TP2: $2,720.
Short Entry Plan:
Aggressive Scalping Short:
Trigger: Rejection at $2,712.
Entry: $2,712.
SL: $2,715.
TP1: $2,708.
TP2: $2,705.
Step 4: Volume Profile Analysis
30M Volume Analysis:
Positive volume increasing by 15%.
Negative volume at resistance zones ($2,712–$2,715).
Lower Timeframe Volume:
5M spikes in Positive Volume near $2,705.
Step 5: Final Trading Outlook
Entry Type Entry Price Stop Loss TP1 TP2 Risk:Reward
Scalping Long $2,704 $2,701 $2,708 $2,712 1:2
Breakout Long $2,713 $2,710 $2,715 $2,720 1:2.5
Scalping Short $2,712 $2,715 $2,708 $2,705 1:1.5
Executive Summary:
Short-term Bearish bias as price rejects FVG at $2,712.
Bullish Scenarios at $2,703 depend on volume confirmation.
Watch for divergences (RSI/Stochastic RSI) on 15M and 30M charts for scalping opportunities.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.