### **Weekly Review – Week 10, Prepping for Week 11**
#### **Market Context: Higher Time Frames Still Bullish, But Short-Term Consolidation**
- **Quarterly:** Q1 2025 remains in expansion mode, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the last six quarters. Price is currently trading above Q4 2024, which acted as a stall candle—reinforcing that the **higher time frames remain in a bullish breakout phase**.
- **Monthly:** February followed through with **bullish momentum**, closing above January’s high. However, the long wick to the upside signals **rejection of higher prices**.
- **Monthly imbalance at 2780**, aligning with **October 2024's STH-HH at 2790**—a key **Point of Interest (POI)** for long setups if price retraces.
#### **Weekly Chart: Defined Range & Potential for Deeper Pullback**
- **Week 10 printed an inside bar**, following Week 9’s engulfing move—**creating both a swing high and swing low**.
- **Weekly Equilibrium at 2745** – Optimal long positions may form below this level, providing a **higher probability setup in discount pricing**.
- Given the defined range, this supports a case for **short-term shorts**, with **long setups likely to emerge at lower levels**.
#### **Daily Chart: Expansion, Consolidation, Breakdown – Is 2830 Weak?**
- **Recent Structure:** Price expanded, consolidated, and then broke down, forming a **swing low at 2830**.
- This swing low **failed to push higher and take out 2955**, which would have confirmed continued bullish structure.
- **Daily consolidation zone at 2935-2940** was the origin of the last **bearish expansion**. If price revisits this area, it becomes a **prime shorting opportunity**, targeting a break of 2830.
- A break below **2830 confirms short-term bearish control**, increasing the probability of a move toward **weekly range equilibrium at 2750**.
---
### **Trading Plan for the Week Ahead**
🔹 **Short Bias Above Recent Swing High at 2930**
- Looking for shorts within the **Daily Bearish POI (2935-2940)**.
- If price rejects and moves down, **targets = 2830**, with potential for an extended move into **weekly equilibrium at 2750**.
🔹 **Longs Not Off the Table – But Caution Needed**
- **Higher time frames remain bullish**, so we are not married to short positions.
- If price shows **strong buying interest we will re-evaluate.
🔹 **Key Events to Watch in Week 11**
- **CPI on Wednesday** and **PPI on Thursday** – These could be **major catalysts for volatility**.
- **Post-NFP reaction was muted**, so we anticipate **stronger price moves following economic data this week**.
---
### **Execution Mindset: Trade the Plan, Stay in Control**
🚨 **No Bias Marriages – We Execute, Then Evaluate**
- Every position is **planned, executed, and then reviewed**.
- **If a setup fails, we adjust. If a setup succeeds, we analyze why.**
🎯 **Focus for March:**
- **Refining the scaling-in model**—balancing profit-taking while managing drawdowns.
- **Strengthening market structure analysis** across multiple time frames.
- **Sticking to daily swing trades** at key reversal points (springs & upthrusts on lower time frames).
🔹 **Let’s see what price prints. We trade what we see, not what we expect.**
#WeeklyReview #Trading #XAUUSD #PriceAction #HandDrawnCharts
#### **Market Context: Higher Time Frames Still Bullish, But Short-Term Consolidation**
- **Quarterly:** Q1 2025 remains in expansion mode, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the last six quarters. Price is currently trading above Q4 2024, which acted as a stall candle—reinforcing that the **higher time frames remain in a bullish breakout phase**.
- **Monthly:** February followed through with **bullish momentum**, closing above January’s high. However, the long wick to the upside signals **rejection of higher prices**.
- **Monthly imbalance at 2780**, aligning with **October 2024's STH-HH at 2790**—a key **Point of Interest (POI)** for long setups if price retraces.
#### **Weekly Chart: Defined Range & Potential for Deeper Pullback**
- **Week 10 printed an inside bar**, following Week 9’s engulfing move—**creating both a swing high and swing low**.
- **Weekly Equilibrium at 2745** – Optimal long positions may form below this level, providing a **higher probability setup in discount pricing**.
- Given the defined range, this supports a case for **short-term shorts**, with **long setups likely to emerge at lower levels**.
#### **Daily Chart: Expansion, Consolidation, Breakdown – Is 2830 Weak?**
- **Recent Structure:** Price expanded, consolidated, and then broke down, forming a **swing low at 2830**.
- This swing low **failed to push higher and take out 2955**, which would have confirmed continued bullish structure.
- **Daily consolidation zone at 2935-2940** was the origin of the last **bearish expansion**. If price revisits this area, it becomes a **prime shorting opportunity**, targeting a break of 2830.
- A break below **2830 confirms short-term bearish control**, increasing the probability of a move toward **weekly range equilibrium at 2750**.
---
### **Trading Plan for the Week Ahead**
🔹 **Short Bias Above Recent Swing High at 2930**
- Looking for shorts within the **Daily Bearish POI (2935-2940)**.
- If price rejects and moves down, **targets = 2830**, with potential for an extended move into **weekly equilibrium at 2750**.
🔹 **Longs Not Off the Table – But Caution Needed**
- **Higher time frames remain bullish**, so we are not married to short positions.
- If price shows **strong buying interest we will re-evaluate.
🔹 **Key Events to Watch in Week 11**
- **CPI on Wednesday** and **PPI on Thursday** – These could be **major catalysts for volatility**.
- **Post-NFP reaction was muted**, so we anticipate **stronger price moves following economic data this week**.
---
### **Execution Mindset: Trade the Plan, Stay in Control**
🚨 **No Bias Marriages – We Execute, Then Evaluate**
- Every position is **planned, executed, and then reviewed**.
- **If a setup fails, we adjust. If a setup succeeds, we analyze why.**
🎯 **Focus for March:**
- **Refining the scaling-in model**—balancing profit-taking while managing drawdowns.
- **Strengthening market structure analysis** across multiple time frames.
- **Sticking to daily swing trades** at key reversal points (springs & upthrusts on lower time frames).
🔹 **Let’s see what price prints. We trade what we see, not what we expect.**
#WeeklyReview #Trading #XAUUSD #PriceAction #HandDrawnCharts
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.