Gold forecast (Jun 14 - 18)
Dear traders,
We had a roller coaster week of ups and downs. overall though, as I have predicted from last week, we have come back down from 1900 levels.
I remain bullish long term for gold, and so far we have not seen any structural break for gold.
As mentioned before, gold is likely within a wave 4 consolidation, between a range of 1869 - 1903.
- wave 4 typically exhibits an ABCDE pattern
- As long as we hold above 1855 level and above, gold bull is fine.
- we are rested right above the bullish trend line.
- we might have just completed the ABCDE pattern, or we are near the end of the consolidation.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7io0Ds7h/
Volume analysis is critical here.
- in my opinion, Friday sell-off was only a setup for lower buying price.
- higher volume increases as we approach 1874-1881 level.
- I will expect Monday onwards to stay above 1880.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3lrZ7Yf2/
critical levels:
- 1868 cannot be broken for bulls. If we break 1868, there is a great chance of further down side.
- 1855 cannot be broken for bulls. If broken, we will confirm the bearish H&S pattern. We will likely head much lower.
- 1900-03 is a major resistance. Once broken, the wave 4 consolidation will be confirmed complete.
near term:
- 1890 needs to be broken for bulls to continue. If not, the E leg for the ABCDE pattern might continue to extend.
- anything above 1876-77 should be considered safe for bulls.
- 1876-77 is the 0.786 retracement level for the previously nearest down trend. (100% at 1959)
I'm looking for a short term swing setup from here to my ultimate target of 1959.
Fundamentals:
- US inflation has been breaking all time highs.
- I will not listen to any inflation head-fake news. This is not the reason to sell gold.
We had a roller coaster week of ups and downs. overall though, as I have predicted from last week, we have come back down from 1900 levels.
I remain bullish long term for gold, and so far we have not seen any structural break for gold.
As mentioned before, gold is likely within a wave 4 consolidation, between a range of 1869 - 1903.
- wave 4 typically exhibits an ABCDE pattern
- As long as we hold above 1855 level and above, gold bull is fine.
- we are rested right above the bullish trend line.
- we might have just completed the ABCDE pattern, or we are near the end of the consolidation.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7io0Ds7h/
Volume analysis is critical here.
- in my opinion, Friday sell-off was only a setup for lower buying price.
- higher volume increases as we approach 1874-1881 level.
- I will expect Monday onwards to stay above 1880.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3lrZ7Yf2/
critical levels:
- 1868 cannot be broken for bulls. If we break 1868, there is a great chance of further down side.
- 1855 cannot be broken for bulls. If broken, we will confirm the bearish H&S pattern. We will likely head much lower.
- 1900-03 is a major resistance. Once broken, the wave 4 consolidation will be confirmed complete.
near term:
- 1890 needs to be broken for bulls to continue. If not, the E leg for the ABCDE pattern might continue to extend.
- anything above 1876-77 should be considered safe for bulls.
- 1876-77 is the 0.786 retracement level for the previously nearest down trend. (100% at 1959)
I'm looking for a short term swing setup from here to my ultimate target of 1959.
Fundamentals:
- US inflation has been breaking all time highs.
- I will not listen to any inflation head-fake news. This is not the reason to sell gold.
Disclaimer
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