2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - day 18 (0.732 BTC)
Updated
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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I felt very confident that resistance was going to hold at $2,650 on the S&P 500. The price was forming a rising wedge and volume was decreasing rapidly. Very strong resistance was expected due to $2,600 - $2,650 providing support for 10 months in 2018, that was confirmed by the visible range volume profile.
There must have been some change in sentiment that I am unaware of because the price shot right through that area with very little difficulty. Either that or it was a nasty bear trap that just forced most shorts to cover before an epic selloff / gap down on Monday.
Regardless I just booked my 9th losing trade in a row which puts me in a deep hole less than three weeks after starting this challenge. As mentioned yesterday I am going to scale down my risk per position due to the limited bankroll that is available. I am also going to take some time off to try and regroup / refocus.
I am reminded of a common saying we have all heard:
“If it was easy then everyone would do it”
Open Positions
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Short: XAUUSD
* STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots
Price: $1,284.73
Projected Risk: 1.16%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.05 lots
Margin: 0.016 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC
Open Orders
Long USD:CAD
*1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach.
Closed Positions
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.18 lots
Realized PnL: -0.5879 BTC
ROI: -4.8%
Notes: Cannot believe what I just saw. Can’t remember a time watching a price move through that much resistance on that little volume after being so overbought.
Watchtower
.
BTC
Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the 1.4K -
1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish.
XRPBTC
Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA)
LTCUSD:
Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
I felt very confident that resistance was going to hold at $2,650 on the S&P 500. The price was forming a rising wedge and volume was decreasing rapidly. Very strong resistance was expected due to $2,600 - $2,650 providing support for 10 months in 2018, that was confirmed by the visible range volume profile.
There must have been some change in sentiment that I am unaware of because the price shot right through that area with very little difficulty. Either that or it was a nasty bear trap that just forced most shorts to cover before an epic selloff / gap down on Monday.
Regardless I just booked my 9th losing trade in a row which puts me in a deep hole less than three weeks after starting this challenge. As mentioned yesterday I am going to scale down my risk per position due to the limited bankroll that is available. I am also going to take some time off to try and regroup / refocus.
I am reminded of a common saying we have all heard:
“If it was easy then everyone would do it”
Open Positions
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Short: XAUUSD
* STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots
Price: $1,284.73
Projected Risk: 1.16%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.05 lots
Margin: 0.016 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC
Open Orders
Long USD:CAD
*1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach.
Closed Positions
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.18 lots
Realized PnL: -0.5879 BTC
ROI: -4.8%
Notes: Cannot believe what I just saw. Can’t remember a time watching a price move through that much resistance on that little volume after being so overbought.
Watchtower
.
BTC
Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the 1.4K -
1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC
Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA)
LTCUSD:
Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
Note
No changes in the Challenge so no need for an update. I will be taking the night off to go out to the bars to eat some delicious dinner, drink some cheap beer and shoot some pool. Happy Saturday!Note
No changes to the Challenge so no need for an update. Would like to include that I am more focused / determined to complete this than ever before, however I am going to Unconfiscatable on Wednesday and don't won't to have too much exposure, if any at all, while I am there. Cheers!
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