1. Key News Drivers
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. If economic data (such as ADP, GDP, and PCE) show strong performance, the expected rate cut may be further postponed, which is bearish for gold.
Geopolitics and Risk Aversion: Uncertainty in the US-China trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East may temporarily support gold prices, but the market is currently more focused on macroeconomic data.
Dollar Trend: If the US dollar index continues to strengthen (driven by expectations of a Fed rate hike), it will suppress gold's rebound potential.
2. Key Technical Signals
Trend Break Confirmation:
The daily chart shows four consecutive declines below the 60-day moving average and the rising trend line, confirming a mid-term correction following the 3439 high.
The next key support is 3245 (previous low). If it falls below this, the price could drop to 3150-3120.
Short-term oversold rebound demand:
The RSI entered the oversold zone, and a technical rebound may occur.
Key rebound resistance level:
3315-3325 (near yesterday's high, short-term short position entry area)
3345-3350 (bull-bear watershed, strong resistance area)
3380-3400 (trend reversal confirmation point, ideal layout position for medium-term short positions)
3. Today's operation strategy
(1) Short-term trading (intraday)
Mainly high-short:
Rebound to 3315-3325, light position short test, stop loss 3335, target 3280-3270.
If it touches 3345-3350, you can add short positions, stop loss 3360, target 3300-3280.
Dip-buying strategy (caution):
If the price stabilizes after a pullback to 3280-3270, short-term buying is recommended, with a stop-loss at 3260 and a target of 3300-3310 (quick entry and exit).
4. Key Risks
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: If the Fed unexpectedly releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut), it could trigger a rapid rebound in gold prices.
Unfortunate Economic Data: If US GDP, PCE, and other data fall short of expectations, it could boost gold prices in the short term, but after the rebound, it will still be an opportunity to buy higher.
Escalating Geopolitical Conflict: If a major risk event occurs (such as a escalation in the Sino-US trade war), it could temporarily boost safe-haven buying.
Summary
Short-Term: Oversold rebounds may provide opportunities to sell high, with attention to resistance at 3315-3325 and 3345-3350.
Medium-Term: The trend remains bearish, with a target of 3245 to 3150. Any upward movement is considered an opportunity to enter a short position. Trading strategy: Mainly short on rebound, be cautious when buying long orders on rebound, and strictly set stop-loss to prevent unexpected fluctuations.
Trade active
Will gold prices continue to fall on August 1st?
Core Logic Analysis
Negative factors dominate
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance: keeping interest rates unchanged and Powell suppressing expectations of a rate cut have weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Strong economic data: ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the upcoming PCE and non-farm payroll data, market expectations of an early Fed rate cut have cooled.
Technical Breakdown: Gold prices fell below the key support level of $3,300, hitting a new monthly low. A large weekly bearish candlestick chart indicates bearish dominance.
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 3315 (hourly rebound resistance), 3333 (previous high and daily resistance).
Support: 3280-3290 (short-term), 3250-3245 (strong monthly support).
Potential Risks
Unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data or escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger a short-term rebound, but a break above 3330 is required to reverse the downward trend.
Today's Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trading
Primarily short at highs: Short lightly on a rebound to 3310-3315, stop loss at 3325, target 3290-3280.
Aggressive Short: Add to short positions if the price reaches 3330-3333, stop loss at 3340, target 3280.
Cautious Long: Try a long position on the first touch of 3250-3245, stop loss at 3235, target 3270-3280 (quick in and out).
Mid-term Strategy
If the monthly line closes below 3250, shorting at high levels can be continued in August, targeting the 3150-3100 range.
If the gold price rebounds above 3350 after the non-farm payrolls, the trend needs to be reassessed.
Events to Watch
Data:
Non-farm payroll report on Friday (if the data exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall further).
US June PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve inflation indicator).
Technical Signal:
A daily close below 3250 would confirm a medium-term downtrend.
Observe the recapture of the 3300 level, which serves as a dividing line between bulls and bears.
Summary
Gold is currently in a bearish phase. Prioritize shorting on rallies, but be wary of unexpected data fluctuations. If the mid-line breaks below 3250, the market could target the 3000-3100 range. Conversely, if it holds above 3330, strategy adjustments will be necessary. Strictly stop loss and control risks.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.