XAUUSD: Focus on 2556$ and 2609$
XAUUSD: Technical and Fundamental Analysis (Daily Time Frame)
Technical Analysis:
Breakout and Retest of the Uptrend Channel:
Gold price broke below the uptrend channel at $2609, signaling potential bearish momentum.
A retest of the $2556 demand zone confirmed its strength as a key support.
Bearish Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breakdown to $2280
If price pulls back to $2609 but fails to hold above $2556, a breakdown could lead to a crash toward $2280, the next major support level.
Scenario 2: Lower High Formation
If price rises to the resistance zone of $2672–$2680 and faces rejection, it may continue the downtrend, targeting $2475.
Bullish Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breakout Above $2780
If price breaks above $2780 and sustains, it would invalidate the bearish structure.
A higher high above $2788 could push the price toward $2956.
Scenario 2: Consolidation Above $2556
Consolidation above $2556 could indicate accumulation, supporting a potential bullish breakout.
Downtrend Structure:
Despite the bearish outlook, no lower lows or lower highs have been confirmed yet, leaving room for price reversal or continuation.
Fundamental and Geopolitical Analysis:
Impact of US Political Landscape:
Speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s potential election victory suggests a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY).
A strong dollar could weigh on gold prices due to their inverse relationship.
Federal Reserve Policy:
With the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, higher yields on dollar-denominated assets may reduce gold's appeal.
Geopolitical Tensions and De-Escalation:
Trump's commitment to addressing conflicts (e.g., Israel-Lebanon, Iran, Palestine) could lower safe-haven demand for gold.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before making trading decisions.
Technical Analysis:
Breakout and Retest of the Uptrend Channel:
Gold price broke below the uptrend channel at $2609, signaling potential bearish momentum.
A retest of the $2556 demand zone confirmed its strength as a key support.
Bearish Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breakdown to $2280
If price pulls back to $2609 but fails to hold above $2556, a breakdown could lead to a crash toward $2280, the next major support level.
Scenario 2: Lower High Formation
If price rises to the resistance zone of $2672–$2680 and faces rejection, it may continue the downtrend, targeting $2475.
Bullish Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breakout Above $2780
If price breaks above $2780 and sustains, it would invalidate the bearish structure.
A higher high above $2788 could push the price toward $2956.
Scenario 2: Consolidation Above $2556
Consolidation above $2556 could indicate accumulation, supporting a potential bullish breakout.
Downtrend Structure:
Despite the bearish outlook, no lower lows or lower highs have been confirmed yet, leaving room for price reversal or continuation.
Fundamental and Geopolitical Analysis:
Impact of US Political Landscape:
Speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s potential election victory suggests a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY).
A strong dollar could weigh on gold prices due to their inverse relationship.
Federal Reserve Policy:
With the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, higher yields on dollar-denominated assets may reduce gold's appeal.
Geopolitical Tensions and De-Escalation:
Trump's commitment to addressing conflicts (e.g., Israel-Lebanon, Iran, Palestine) could lower safe-haven demand for gold.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.