GOLD → Could NFP cause a counter-trend correction?
Updated
XAUUSD within a strong rally stops and forms a flat before the publication of NFP. Relative to 2288 a false breakout is formed, bringing sellers into the market.The dollar is in a correction phase, as is gold. The price is testing the local low of 2267.67 but still does not reach the strong liquidity zones of 2265, 2228, 2222. There is still a strong buyer in the market, but after the correction and the false breakdown of 2288 a seller appears. NFP is ahead, a rather important news, which can both turn the market and strengthen the current movement. It is worth paying attention to the resistance at 2288 and 2305. There is a chance to see the continuation of counter-trend correction, but before that there is a chance that a big player will drive the price to ATH before further decline to the specified liquidity areas: 2265, 2228 or to the support of the formal channel.
Resistance levels: 2288, 2305
Support levels: 2265, 2228, 2222
Technical factors are not enough now to specify the key areas for opening sales or purchases, so it is worth to base on the fundamental reasons and strong resistance and support areas.
DXY GC1! MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
Note
Traders expect to see NonFarm Payrolls 212K versus 275K, this generally indicates a bearish bias of speculators towards the US market. That makes sense.
Yesterday we saw bad data on Initial Jobless Claims, the figure rose by 8K, which broke the wave of bullish data for 5 weeks in a row.
Overall this could be just as negative for NFP, but we can't say for sure if the actual data will be above or below 212K, we can only speculate.
Based on last month's data, there is a high probability to see the actual NFP higher than 212K, which could be bullish for the dollar index and generally negative for the forex market.
PS:
Data above the expected 212K will be bullish for the dollar
Data below the expected 212K will be bearish for the USD
Note
The gold market is very strong. Even amid strong news for the dollar, speculators are still heavily buying all possible drops. It's an anomaly
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