Gold-Silver Ratio Down, Precious Metals Up
Updated
The gold-silver ratio is motivating me to look for bullish opportunities in the precious metals. Following silver's 17 days down in a row, I believe it is unlikely that it will erase this most recent rally it took from $16 after only reaching the .382 fibo retracement level. Instead, I think it has a date with the downward trend line around $18.2. The indicators are showing me bearish divergence on the gold-silver ratio. If you review a longer term chart, you will see that GSR is inversely correlated to the precious metals. Let's see if it can show us the future here.
Trade active
Silver rally is starting and the GSR is showing strong 4hr red candle. Lot of time for it to close, but the setup is perfect. Targetting GSR ratio 72 or so.Note
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/mUGcynPj.pngEve and Adam target 71.
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Some fundamentals....In the last week, the odds of a rate hike at the June FOMC meeting have gone down from nearly 90% to 66%. This will be the second time we see a significant change in the probabilities only a couple weeks out of an FOMC meeting during this round of tightening which started in Dec. 2015. However, the first time I'm referring to was the March meeting, where the odds went from 20% believing a hike was coming to 67% a week later on March 1. That shift in probabilities rang true. This leads me to believe that there will be no rate in June, and that the PMs will continue to appreciate as the % decreases from 67% to 50% to 25%, etc. before June 13/14.
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s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/f/F2hzDhXt.pngbreakout imminent
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2 hours later finally showing signs of breaking the ratio downs3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/t/TdxemXxz.png
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s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/i/IYOCEUxv.pngthe trade is on! hope it convinced some to go bull
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s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/n/NThzmYGz.pngThese are TP areas. I am looking to hold and re-leverage with gains at these levels.
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s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/f/fuBK0L6q.pngsilver targets based on proportions in the gold-silver ratio
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Well Friday was fun! The market moved exactly as predicted, eerily so. I am not sure where we are in larger elliot wave count, but I'm counting nice 5-wave impulsive moves in silver. The gold-silver ratio will continue to be my fortune teller, but I'm also watching these levels in silvers3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/LuyaDnZN.png
Trade closed manually
I think we are in an expanded flat correction, with c wave targetting the 16.70s. I will relong with gusto at those levels.Trade active
i've longed the market again, as trying to time the waves has become much harder than it was on friday. if this takes off, i will be letting it ride for awhile
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