BTCUSD: Scope for further Near Term Upside within Bear Flag
Updated
Bitcoin
Continuation pattern forming after the failed break earlier.
Just a bear flag so far. 6710 first support and if it's going to
bounce it should be from the lower parallel of the nascent
pattern - but there's no real interest A worry for any brave
bulls at this point.
In very near term we may get a bit of buying into US open -
may regret it later but am not looking to follow it higher even
so at this point.
Looking to short again from higher up towards 6840-6860 if
the current rally lacks any volume as it rises orif 6700 gives
way first with a stop around 30 or so higher, which is risky, as
below, if we see it happen.
As yesterday, on the downside there are a series of closely
positioned support levels beginning at 6660, then 6518-6481
and last gasp support at 6428 - which must hold up today for
Bitcoin bulls to stand any chance from here.
This might make trading the break lower trickier than usual so
will need to take care if trading this part of the range.
But any failure to hold 6420 from this point today will likely
flip Bitcoin down to 5887 next. So 6425 is most likely the
point that swings and day traders are likely to start to short
more aggressively when broken with stops either quite tight
above, and no higher than 6620.
Continuation pattern forming after the failed break earlier.
Just a bear flag so far. 6710 first support and if it's going to
bounce it should be from the lower parallel of the nascent
pattern - but there's no real interest A worry for any brave
bulls at this point.
In very near term we may get a bit of buying into US open -
may regret it later but am not looking to follow it higher even
so at this point.
Looking to short again from higher up towards 6840-6860 if
the current rally lacks any volume as it rises orif 6700 gives
way first with a stop around 30 or so higher, which is risky, as
below, if we see it happen.
As yesterday, on the downside there are a series of closely
positioned support levels beginning at 6660, then 6518-6481
and last gasp support at 6428 - which must hold up today for
Bitcoin bulls to stand any chance from here.
This might make trading the break lower trickier than usual so
will need to take care if trading this part of the range.
But any failure to hold 6420 from this point today will likely
flip Bitcoin down to 5887 next. So 6425 is most likely the
point that swings and day traders are likely to start to short
more aggressively when broken with stops either quite tight
above, and no higher than 6620.
Note
Bitcoin Update Bitmex ChartAfter breaking below 6700 Bitcoin fell away to 6457 before going into another continuation pattern for 12 or so hours overnight before falling away again when London opened this morning.
The break below 6420 triggered another short which has not been as successful as hoped so far with a low for the day at 6387 and price now back at 6440 .
We've had 4 waves down (some will argue for 5 if you count the continuation pattern atthe top of the big wave) and each wave is getting smaller ...this has to keep pushing lower from here for the short to good in the near term - am dropping stop to around break even at 6445 just in case this sticks here.
It shouldn't really, looking at the Alts but it's a little tricky still.
Otherwise if stopped out will look to short again from 6518 and ideally from the dynamic which is now forming off the highs with stops above 6518 by 10 to 20 points.
It should then fall away to 5887 if the short is to stay good.
Plan B: It's Bitcoin -
If wrong here and Bitcoin is setting a trap for shorts it will have to break above 6518 and hold up on the next restest to consider flipping back to long from this point with stops below 6500 if triggered. It may look unlikely at this point but we still neeed to be prepared for it just in case.
Bitcoin Bitmex Bigger
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Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Note
Thursday 13:42gmt 08:42 estBitcoin Bitmex
Unwinding in an all too familiar pattern that usually flatters to deceive for a while - 12 up to 24 hours usually recently - before falling away again.
On the downside, Initial minor support lies at 6480 which if broken should trigger further weakness back to 6428 where it may bounce again before eventually breaking lower still to 6338 at least and 6245-6236 range at likely lowest before it bounces again.
In near term the 70 point range it's moving iwithin, inside the channel is too narrow even for most day traders now.
To have any chance of escaping to the upside it has to bounce from 6480 and then regain the 6518 line and hold it on the retest - a speculative buy at 6482 with a stop 5 points lower ready to reverse short with stop 20 higher .\
13:53gmt 08:53 est
Had to fire that off quickly in case it broke down first.
This is a speculative buy and needs US buying to help it rally from here.
We may not get it in which case 5 points is blown.
If it now falls away by more than 10 points below 6480 will be forced to flip short with stop just above 6500.
It's a close run thing right now.
Otherwise wait to short on a fall below 6425 which, without US buyers arriving pdq, is more likely -
it just went close to limit down at 6478 and flipped back up but still no real interest
14:16gmt 09:16est Bitcoin Bitmex
Whilst writing Futures Bitmex has broken to the line exactly - 5 points blown - as above from here - am driving stop on short down to 6455 - don't like this sticking - screw it - am closing half dropping stop on rest as above and getting ready to short again on break below the support line with stops 20 higher
15:26gmt 10:26est Bitcoin
Lowering stop on this short to 6415
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Note
Bitcoin Update Bitstamp ChartThe last short from 6350 was stopped out for 20 points loss before Bitcoin reversed higher on a relief rally on the news that it's not a security.
Since the news broke Bitcoin has gone into a 12 hour long continuation pattern as it unwinds the break higher.
So long as it holds within the channel parallels as it unwinds there is a good chance of a positive weekend ahead.
Looking to buy on a break above the upper parallel at 6628 with stops around 50 lower for rally to 6700-6708. It will need a volume kick at this point to push higher still to 6845- 6918 and then 7035 and 7161 at likely highest this weekend coming before it falls away again.
Looking at the downside from here, for the rally to stay good Bitcoin must hold up at the 6505 line and stay within the confines of the lower parallel of the pattern from the highs of yesterday as it unwinds.
Any failure to do so will flip Bitcoin back into negative territory and trigger a short with stops 30 points higher if we see it later.
Bitcoin Bitmex Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitcoin Futures Chart Update
Alt Chart Updates
Many are in same situation as Bitcoin - have to break the upper parallel to turn positive again
ETHUSD
XLMUSD
XRPUSD
Consolidating off the .5443 line - must hold here throughout today to stay looking good for the weekend ahead
LTCUSD
Should bounce away from 96.64 if it's to stay positive from here
NEOUSD
Bear Flag
BTGUSD
BCHUSD
Note
13:06gmt 08:06estBitcoin Bitmex Chart Update
Bitcoin broke the lower parallel here but bounced well off the lower rising dynamic and is now right on the first resistance line line at 6545 where a battle is quietly raging for who rules the day from here -
the bull attempt was rejected quite strongly and now the bear attempt has met the same response.
Right now the two sides have met in the middle and it's it's turned neutral. The spikes either side of price show the indecision is largely matched on either side now.
Cannot really be shorted aggressively unless the lower dynamic is broken with stops above if we see it later.
And no interest yet in buying until 6545 is retaken by the bulls with stop about 15 lower at tightest and no lower than 6470 at furthest.
01:03gmt 20:03est Bitcoin Bitmex Update
Moving stop on this short from the eventual break below the rising dynamic at 6535 - stop lowered to 6395 - it's sticking -
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