BTC Macro Outlook
I still believe us to be in a macro wave 4. Sadly this wave 4 has been massive and nearly a year long so far.
The wave one's 1.618 extension and the current wave three's 0.236 retrace happen to overlap. This should and will be strong area of support. If this holds then we are either experiencing an A-B-Truncated C for the wave 4 retrace or some sort of ABCDE that is yet to end playing out. Alternatively, we could fall to the 0.382 retrace at around 22k. This would be a more standard ABC correction.
I don't believe we have had a wave 5 top yet for a few reasons. Firstly, the waves to the current ATH were an ABC up. The A and C legs are roughly 1:1 extensions. Following the first point, there is no discernable 5 wave structure. Also, there has been no 'blow off top'. Finally, there was no fibonacci area of resistance. It simply stopped in between the 1.618 - 2.618 extensions of the first wave.
I'd also like to make clear I have done no time analysis. The lines are complete conjecture as to where they land in time frame.
The wave one's 1.618 extension and the current wave three's 0.236 retrace happen to overlap. This should and will be strong area of support. If this holds then we are either experiencing an A-B-Truncated C for the wave 4 retrace or some sort of ABCDE that is yet to end playing out. Alternatively, we could fall to the 0.382 retrace at around 22k. This would be a more standard ABC correction.
I don't believe we have had a wave 5 top yet for a few reasons. Firstly, the waves to the current ATH were an ABC up. The A and C legs are roughly 1:1 extensions. Following the first point, there is no discernable 5 wave structure. Also, there has been no 'blow off top'. Finally, there was no fibonacci area of resistance. It simply stopped in between the 1.618 - 2.618 extensions of the first wave.
I'd also like to make clear I have done no time analysis. The lines are complete conjecture as to where they land in time frame.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.