Long

Bitcoin XBT Stops Update and Next Trade Points from Here

Updated

Bitcoin Bitmex Update
Not much has changed overnight. It was still a buy on tests of the 7355 line but only for scalps...
If you bought on the second test of this level overnight raise the stop to 7438 for now.
The spikes above price suggest it's still not wanted much above 7500 so far.
The rest stays the same for now, a repeat of yesterday as nothing has changed yet.

On Bitmex feed it's still effectively stuck in the range bounded by three lines of important resistance
at 7615 and 7683 and 7741 and one line of support at 7265, which now needs extending to cover
the spike low.

Whilst inside the range it looks like scalping opportunities at best for now.
Buy on dips towards the 7355 nearest support line with stops just under 7350
looks to be the best option for those looking to trade this inside the range from here.

For others, an eventual break either side of the range should be worth following more aggressively.
Has to break above 7750 on high volume to follow long looking for 8600.
And on the downside has to break below 7240 on rising volumes for next good shorting opportunity,
looking for a retest if 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested.
But until then it looks like we remain limited to scalping opportunities inside the range

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Note

Bitcoin Update BTCUSDT
A nice spike to the uppermost parallel again gave a great chance to exit .
Now it's a speculative buy with stops under the low here by 5 points or so - at 7330 on this feed.

Bitmex Update
Stops on any new longs at 7349 on this feed

Note

Bitcoin Chart Updates

The last long shot got busted out for 20 or so loss. Sorry for that. Sometimes the call goes wrong very quickly. So long as the stop is very close by when we trade it means that losses when they come are relatively small compared to wins. We've taken 1300 points and more in the last few days and one loss of 20 points. It could be worse.
It's the biggest red candle for some time. It's since fallen to the first line of support at 7273 on Bitfinex, falling to within 1 point of the line but it's holding so far.
The spike at the top is a big rejection spike.
Still no one wants to hold this above 7500 for more than a few minutes at most.
Initial resistance lies here at 7350 (the stop of the last long) and extends to 7360.
It's still shaky under here and can come back again to the 7273 line - but it is trying to stabilise here.
Has to break above 7360 on this feed to risk following long again looking for another scalp to 7500 and at best another spike towards the 7639 line and the upper parallels.
On downside it has to break 7250 to follow short down to 7173 initially and after a bounce attempt here down to 6840 where it should rally again if tested at any point later this weekend.

Note

Bitcoin More chart Updates - futures is worth looking at

Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update

Bitcoin Tether Chart Update

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Lower volume spike here

Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update

Bitcoin Futures Chart Update

Massive volume spike here though - straight to the line - my bad here - should've set buy level one line lower...

Note

Bitcoin Update Bitmex
This long is not going great so far.
Raising stop to 7338 on Bitmex.
May well get taken for another 22 points or so. If so will look to buy again at 7279 line with stop 10 points lower if struck, but ready to reverse short if 7240 is broken later on.

Note

Bitcoin Update Saturday
All Quiet on the Western Front

The weekend has begun with Bitcoin doing nothing much either way so far.
Tripped into a short from 7238 which has gone nowhere slowly overnight and should have been stopped out again above just above 7260 on Bitmex (cannot risk wide stops trading Bitmex on margin - would rather get stopped out and think again than get trapped in a questionable position too long).

And this is questionable again after last night's strong neutral showing.
There's currently so little interest on either side it's effectively impossible to trade again yet.

We also have to be aware of trend reversing
bots at play, designed to encourage a break (both up and down) that quickly becomes a spike as they reverse positions again.
The activity we've seen both at the tops and the bottoms of the last 3 days look like bot marches. But this could also be paranoia : (
Whatever the reason, it's enough to be wary.
So far it's unwound from the top in two waves (maybe 3) with big spikes off the highs and smaller ones off the lows.
It's still not wanted above 7500 for more than a few minutes at best.
But so far it is wanted at around 7200.

At best it looks as if we can make 2 more waves up this weekend before it gets hammered again.

Luckily the range is quite wide if so.

It may give a chance of a worthwhile scalp on the upside but it has to find enough interest to get back above the 7350-7380 range on Bitmex to follow long for 120
points to 7500 minimum and at likely best this weekend a spike into the uppermost of three lines of closely positioned fixed resistance which lie at 7614, then 7683 and finally 7741. A push to 7683 and spike into 7741 would be the perfect outcome of any bull play today where we can set limit orders if triggered long. Can also set a sell order to short at 7741 with a stop 20 or so above and see if it gets struck later today/tomorrow.

A break above 7750 on high volume will needed to negate bearishness at the highs though. We need to be ready for anything even if it's Saturday and it never comes...
So if wrong and 7750 is broken above on high volume at any point over the weekend it would be an extremely bullish outcome as well as a surprise - we need to be ready to reverse long again looking for 8576 if so and not got get caught staring at the screen in amazement.
It's very lazy so far but we may get a trade again soon. It looks more like it will be to the upside at this point - but needs those buyers as US wakes to take it higher and encourage others to join above 7350-7380.
Whilst below here it's resolutely neutral though.

On the downside because of risk of another fake break - for the first times in a long while too - it looks sensible to lower the break level to try to stay out of potential trouble.
So on the downside it has to break below 7174 on Bitmex on rising volume to trigger a short from this point looking for 7076 initially and then after a small cointerrally back to 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested at any point his weekend from here.

Bitcoin Bitmex Closer

Bitcoin Tether Chart Update

Bitcoin Bitstamp Update

Bitcoin Coinbase Update

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
tradingview.com/x/...

Note

Raising stop to 7389

Sorry about that - it's so slow decided to stick stop at 7389 for rough break even after costs - it doesn't look great though, just no interest - has to break the upper parallel of the pattern forming so far today to attract break hunters and rising interest from here.
It's risen a little as this is written - am raising stop again to 7405 - if taken will use as stop on next trade when it comes.

More likely to trade inside this little range for a while...

Note

Bitcoin Updates 23rd - 24th July
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Bitcoin Update 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est 23rd July
Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above.
But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that.

It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least.
Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support.
This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point.

It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet.

Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit.
If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit.

Trade Points from Here if Flat

Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher...
If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too.
It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week.

However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point...
But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week.

Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though.
It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again.

Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update Bigger Picture

Bitcoin Update 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est 24th July
The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though.
It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent.
The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far.
Am raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear.

sumastardon

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