XBTEUR: Top didn't last long...China rescued bulls
Updated
In my previous chart I had determined that Bitcoin was due for a correction, due to sentiment and a potential weekly top signal. What I didn't account for was the impact of unknown news at the time, of the timely addition of ETH to the big three chinese exchanges (Huobi, Btcchina, Okcoin) and also, a few days later, the normalization of Bitcoin withdrawals from these sites. This together with the current japanese and korean craze, triggered a failure of the forming distribution, and created a bullish signal (which I missed). Prices have continued to progress higher but now we approach the forecasted time and pice targets for this rally. I wonder if we do get a correction after this since people believe Bitcoin can rise forever, pretty much, and are openly mocking sellers.
There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-bip148-scenarios-and-game-theory-9530336d953e
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-bip148-scenarios-and-game-theory-9530336d953e
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Very crazy demand from chinese buyers...seems like the whales escaping okcoin/btcc/huobi through withdrawals in BTC aren't done buying and withdrawing.I anticipate a surge in localbitcoins volume when we finally top since these guys must fear PBOC controls, so, the withdrawals are a godsend to them to escape oversight.
This was an atypical juncture. Bullish sentiment extreme created a dip, but it didn't last long because of this. With more information out we can now get a clearer picture. Once these guys withdraw all coins they will want to cash out, to escape potential oversight, since bitcoin transactions aren't private. So, they might sell through localbitcoins using cash, gradually. This will drain the BTC rally of buyers since almost everybody, or everybody now, bought in. No one believes a fall is possible anymore. So, gravity can make the market correct again soon, for a while.
Keep an eye out for the week of July 31st to go long, and specially, watch it after the May-June 2 month timeframe bar closes.
Note
Asrock is now releasing a new mining motherboard, capable of housing 13 GPUs apparently. The last time, the first time ever a specialized gpu mining motherboard came out, was back in 2013: asrock.com/mb/Intel/H81 Pro BTC/?cat=Download&os=All(see the dates)
Now: (it's actually a really cool motherboard)
forum.z.cash/t/asrock-announces-new-h110-mining-motherboard-with-13-gpu-slots/16397
Note
BTCUSD range expansion bars are followed by corrections in the 2-month timeframe Trade active
After covering my short, a bit exhausted by the bruises sustained (I had a profitable short that netted 1.75% gain, then a losing short for 0.8%, and then another loss for 0.5%), and boatloads of people complanining, criticizing, attacking, and insulting me, I realized this could be a sentiment extreme again. So, a new daily low would trigger a short signal once again.This could be the top with reasonable odds. I expect the scaling debate to intensify, and other negatives to arise, specially in the news, and the masses attention once again.
Note
The short looks good now, if we don't go any higher tomorrow, on close, and we don't hit the target in yellow this is a very bearish signal in the short term, which aligns with the bearish forecast in the weekly timeframe.
We should see a fudstorm emerge, scaling debate intensifying etc.
Note
BU node count increasing...let's see if we get more 'bad news'.
Still skeptical but a signal is a signal, we just risk small enough and take it.
In a day we get a new sell signal maybe.
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