Re-analysing Bitcoin - LONG overall - XBTEUR
Updated
Hi
At this point I've sold half of my bitcoin at break even. We didn't get the 'pop' upwards I was hoping for. I don't like to mess around with trades once I'm in, but taking a fresh look at the latest candles, I'm feeling that the probability of a good move up immediately is against us and I'd rather protect my capital.
I have a few reasons based on how I think bitcoin will move medium term and also what the short term is telling us.
Medium term:
The price probably needs to 'reset' before being able to move up again in a healthy trend. If we look at the current upward movement (the pink line), it seems very unlikely that the price will continue at this angle without moving back to the larger average. We can get some idea of this by looking at previous waves. After the initial move back up they tend to collapse again to the weekly average before properly resetting.
Looking at previous movement there are probably to likely patterns we'll get. The first would be a triangular pattern, where the price would follow the pink line for some time and then follow the orange line before either retracing to the overall average (green arrow) or just continuing up (like the blue arrows). The second would be a slow curve back to the overall average and up (blue curved line), taking the route of of either the blue or green arrows.
Short term:
I was expecting the price to move higher before getting into one of these two medium term possibilities. But i'm making a decision now to sell half because the price is struggling. we're hitting what seems to be an important resistance line (the red line - points highlighted by the red circles). We're also repeatedly breaking the pink trendline and the moving averages on the lower timeframe. On top of this the volume is dropping off. really it would have been nice to see the volume increasing as this would have suggested interest and enthusiasm.
So what now?
For me the best action would be to wait for a proper reset. Hopefully we will get a move like the blue curve and can consider buying if the price signals a move higher near the big yellow trendline.
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Mark
At this point I've sold half of my bitcoin at break even. We didn't get the 'pop' upwards I was hoping for. I don't like to mess around with trades once I'm in, but taking a fresh look at the latest candles, I'm feeling that the probability of a good move up immediately is against us and I'd rather protect my capital.
I have a few reasons based on how I think bitcoin will move medium term and also what the short term is telling us.
Medium term:
The price probably needs to 'reset' before being able to move up again in a healthy trend. If we look at the current upward movement (the pink line), it seems very unlikely that the price will continue at this angle without moving back to the larger average. We can get some idea of this by looking at previous waves. After the initial move back up they tend to collapse again to the weekly average before properly resetting.
Looking at previous movement there are probably to likely patterns we'll get. The first would be a triangular pattern, where the price would follow the pink line for some time and then follow the orange line before either retracing to the overall average (green arrow) or just continuing up (like the blue arrows). The second would be a slow curve back to the overall average and up (blue curved line), taking the route of of either the blue or green arrows.
Short term:
I was expecting the price to move higher before getting into one of these two medium term possibilities. But i'm making a decision now to sell half because the price is struggling. we're hitting what seems to be an important resistance line (the red line - points highlighted by the red circles). We're also repeatedly breaking the pink trendline and the moving averages on the lower timeframe. On top of this the volume is dropping off. really it would have been nice to see the volume increasing as this would have suggested interest and enthusiasm.
So what now?
For me the best action would be to wait for a proper reset. Hopefully we will get a move like the blue curve and can consider buying if the price signals a move higher near the big yellow trendline.
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Mark
Note
Just feel i should say the price dropped a but since i started writing this.
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