Where is the bottom for Bitcoin?
Look at the Bitcoin chart. What emotions do you feel? Sadness, fear, panic, happiness or opportunity? My view is between happiness and opportunity. Having been short on Bitcoin during the recent month I have manged to trade this downwards move successfully, but the question I want to answer is when can Bitcoin potentially bottom and head back upwards.
We need to firstly take a look at the bigger picture of what is going on in the world. Coronavirus fear is increasing day by day. people are scared. The stock markets are falling and money is leaving. The general public are getting sent home from work with no paycheck. Does this sound like an environment where stocks are going to thrive and increase in price? The general public only invests money they are prepared to lose, and they generally also only open long positions. So with the markets falling the liquidity is drying up. We're presented though with a scenario where one can either freeze and watch their portfolio drop day by day, or sell/short and make money. This is where traders can take over and take the money off holders and use this as an amazing opportunity.
I'm open minded as a trader, I acknowledge the markets can change at any second and turn from bearish to bullish, and given my experience over the many years of trading such assets I have learned that is a critical skill to have. Don't hold a bias, be open to being wrong, and when you are wrong accept a lose and start winning. I believe the markets are going to struggle during the next few weeks as coronavirus continues to worsen and business are forced to shut. How does this relate to Bitcoin? Well as it stands it is currently in consolidation mode after the large drop, under the macro point of control, which is bearish. $3500 support did hold up and leave a lower wick which bulls will defend to the best of their abilities, but it does seems unlikely they will be able to hold that given the recent buy volume. If we do lose support i believe the 2k region offers a lot of opportunity for trading and potentially long term trades from this level. Claiming the macro POC will be a big signal to me we have seen a bottom and likely to push much higher in price. Filling in the CME futures gap at $3570 with a SFP wick would present a long opportunity.
I have attached a very nice fan which has helped me trade some of the highs and lows in this Bitcoin market in recently months. As you can see this .618 as been influential in its support of the market historically, but now lost it has flipped into resistance. This is the first target for bulls to claim back as support.
The market will not die, it will be here 20 years from now. What we want to see is capitulation and people saying things such as Bitcoin is dying, when enough people start to think like this then we will see a rise in the price. Till then stay cautious and wait for the chart to prove to you it wants to go higher. Block all the noise the best you can from social media etc. about their BTC thoughts. Honestly just follow the chart you can read the news from just that. The chart is always telling us a story, and as it stands that story is fear.
We need to firstly take a look at the bigger picture of what is going on in the world. Coronavirus fear is increasing day by day. people are scared. The stock markets are falling and money is leaving. The general public are getting sent home from work with no paycheck. Does this sound like an environment where stocks are going to thrive and increase in price? The general public only invests money they are prepared to lose, and they generally also only open long positions. So with the markets falling the liquidity is drying up. We're presented though with a scenario where one can either freeze and watch their portfolio drop day by day, or sell/short and make money. This is where traders can take over and take the money off holders and use this as an amazing opportunity.
I'm open minded as a trader, I acknowledge the markets can change at any second and turn from bearish to bullish, and given my experience over the many years of trading such assets I have learned that is a critical skill to have. Don't hold a bias, be open to being wrong, and when you are wrong accept a lose and start winning. I believe the markets are going to struggle during the next few weeks as coronavirus continues to worsen and business are forced to shut. How does this relate to Bitcoin? Well as it stands it is currently in consolidation mode after the large drop, under the macro point of control, which is bearish. $3500 support did hold up and leave a lower wick which bulls will defend to the best of their abilities, but it does seems unlikely they will be able to hold that given the recent buy volume. If we do lose support i believe the 2k region offers a lot of opportunity for trading and potentially long term trades from this level. Claiming the macro POC will be a big signal to me we have seen a bottom and likely to push much higher in price. Filling in the CME futures gap at $3570 with a SFP wick would present a long opportunity.
I have attached a very nice fan which has helped me trade some of the highs and lows in this Bitcoin market in recently months. As you can see this .618 as been influential in its support of the market historically, but now lost it has flipped into resistance. This is the first target for bulls to claim back as support.
The market will not die, it will be here 20 years from now. What we want to see is capitulation and people saying things such as Bitcoin is dying, when enough people start to think like this then we will see a rise in the price. Till then stay cautious and wait for the chart to prove to you it wants to go higher. Block all the noise the best you can from social media etc. about their BTC thoughts. Honestly just follow the chart you can read the news from just that. The chart is always telling us a story, and as it stands that story is fear.
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