Bitcoin Daily Update (day 280)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “I am still neutral / in a no trade zone however I am starting to lean slightly more bullish.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats
Patterns: Potential down trend | Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,370 | R: $3,600
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back but wouldn’t call that a short squeeze. Watching to see if it turns prior down trend into support
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0518%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close above and turning up = bullish
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close below, trending down and acting as resistance = bearish
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish, showing first signs up reversal
Volume: Nothing impressive
Candlestick analysis: Solid bullish candle that confirmed the reversal dojis
Ichimoku Cloud: Today it was brought to my attention how much more effective the cloud can be with traditional settings by my boy David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking. I must say that I agree so far. There is currently a C Clamp with the Kijun-Sen lining up with my long term MA and the Tenkan-Sen lining up with my medium term MA. May not mean much to you but is eye opening to me since they are both illustrating the same trend and resistance levels. Makes me think about applying principles of Consensio to the Cloud. Was also just commenting on how useless the cloud becomes when markets are moving, and that doesn’t seem to be the case with traditional settings.
TD’ Sequential: G1 coming off a r8
Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400
Price action: 24h: +3.3% | 2w: -12.1% | 1m: -44.6%
Bollinger Bands: MA is trending down and waits at $3,875
Trendline: Starts at the top of 11/29 and connects to the top of the current candles wick
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bullish
Parabolic SAR: $4,243
RSI: Broke back above 30 still in nice bull div
Stochastic: Double bottom buy. View this as a much better signal than normal. Incoming on 3d is an even stronger signal.
Last Day Rule: Setup day for bulls is $3,214 | Setup day for bears is $4,440
Summary: It can be frustrating when things are so neutral. However this is a great time to practice patience and potentially focus on other markets. I called a top in the S&P 500 last Friday and I am extremely interested to see what happens next week. Furthermore some alts continue to be very tradeable.
There was an entry triggered today on XRP at 8710 sats and that has immediately started moving in my favor!
Bullish Case
High volume reversal candles confirmed with today’s candle. The stochastic is very bullish. The daily Ichimoku Cloud (traditional settings) has a C Clamp. The TD’ Sequential just had a price flip after a red 8. The daily RSI is in a very significant bull div’.
Bearish Case
Potential new down trend forming that the current candle is wicking off. It is also in confluence with horizontal resistance and the 9 MA which is full bearish.
I am not considering a long until there is a daily close above $3,700. Even then I don’t think I will be in love with the risk:reward.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “I am still neutral / in a no trade zone however I am starting to lean slightly more bullish.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats
Patterns: Potential down trend | Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,370 | R: $3,600
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back but wouldn’t call that a short squeeze. Watching to see if it turns prior down trend into support
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0518%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close above and turning up = bullish
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close below, trending down and acting as resistance = bearish
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish, showing first signs up reversal
Volume: Nothing impressive
Candlestick analysis: Solid bullish candle that confirmed the reversal dojis
Ichimoku Cloud: Today it was brought to my attention how much more effective the cloud can be with traditional settings by my boy David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking. I must say that I agree so far. There is currently a C Clamp with the Kijun-Sen lining up with my long term MA and the Tenkan-Sen lining up with my medium term MA. May not mean much to you but is eye opening to me since they are both illustrating the same trend and resistance levels. Makes me think about applying principles of Consensio to the Cloud. Was also just commenting on how useless the cloud becomes when markets are moving, and that doesn’t seem to be the case with traditional settings.
TD’ Sequential: G1 coming off a r8
Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400
Price action: 24h: +3.3% | 2w: -12.1% | 1m: -44.6%
Bollinger Bands: MA is trending down and waits at $3,875
Trendline: Starts at the top of 11/29 and connects to the top of the current candles wick
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bullish
Parabolic SAR: $4,243
RSI: Broke back above 30 still in nice bull div
Stochastic: Double bottom buy. View this as a much better signal than normal. Incoming on 3d is an even stronger signal.
Last Day Rule: Setup day for bulls is $3,214 | Setup day for bears is $4,440
Summary: It can be frustrating when things are so neutral. However this is a great time to practice patience and potentially focus on other markets. I called a top in the S&P 500 last Friday and I am extremely interested to see what happens next week. Furthermore some alts continue to be very tradeable.
There was an entry triggered today on XRP at 8710 sats and that has immediately started moving in my favor!
Bullish Case
High volume reversal candles confirmed with today’s candle. The stochastic is very bullish. The daily Ichimoku Cloud (traditional settings) has a C Clamp. The TD’ Sequential just had a price flip after a red 8. The daily RSI is in a very significant bull div’.
Bearish Case
Potential new down trend forming that the current candle is wicking off. It is also in confluence with horizontal resistance and the 9 MA which is full bearish.
I am not considering a long until there is a daily close above $3,700. Even then I don’t think I will be in love with the risk:reward.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.