BitcoinShort
BTC weekly technical and mathematical levels
BTC has broken its short term timeframe wedge pattern indicating a potential test of the larger timeframe wedge pattern which coincides with previous lows (3100-3200).
From a mathematical perspective and using the monthly Bvol (from Bitmex) to calculate the weekly 1 and 2 standard deviation expected moves, the levels show the following;
1 standard deviation down = 3225
1 standard deviation up = 3620
2 standard deviation down = 3005
2 standard deviation up = 3825
Summary;
There are 4 levels of confluence down at the previous area low of 3100-3200 which creates a strong ad plausible reasoning to look at short term long positions for a move back unto the circa 3700 level if we get down to them. For confluence we have the following; previous lows, longer term wedge support, 1 standard deviation downside move (protected 84% of the time) and good size bid orders lined up. If prices overshoot to the downside which can sometimes happen I would be looking at a 3k test, this lines up with the largest order book bid wall (until the 1-1.3k level) as well as the weekly 2 standard deviation level (protected 95% of the time).
On a longer term timeframe, I am bearish to the 1-1.5k level. Here we see the largest bid walls which is where we see market makers pricing in a better risk to reward for longs.
From a mathematical perspective and using the monthly Bvol (from Bitmex) to calculate the weekly 1 and 2 standard deviation expected moves, the levels show the following;
1 standard deviation down = 3225
1 standard deviation up = 3620
2 standard deviation down = 3005
2 standard deviation up = 3825
Summary;
There are 4 levels of confluence down at the previous area low of 3100-3200 which creates a strong ad plausible reasoning to look at short term long positions for a move back unto the circa 3700 level if we get down to them. For confluence we have the following; previous lows, longer term wedge support, 1 standard deviation downside move (protected 84% of the time) and good size bid orders lined up. If prices overshoot to the downside which can sometimes happen I would be looking at a 3k test, this lines up with the largest order book bid wall (until the 1-1.3k level) as well as the weekly 2 standard deviation level (protected 95% of the time).
On a longer term timeframe, I am bearish to the 1-1.5k level. Here we see the largest bid walls which is where we see market makers pricing in a better risk to reward for longs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.