Long

To be REKT or not to be REKT

Updated

I'm testing out a new strategy and doing a little experiment in the process.

Using this chart, I will enter positions at or about the price points shown on the chart (a price point may be skipped over if the price action doesn't provide enough of a clear break in the action for entry).

Rules:
Starting wallet balance = 0.0123, no additional deposits allowed until the end of the charting period.
Entry at 25x margin, to be gradually pushed up to 100x prior to the next price point if the price moves in the direction predicted and provides such an opportunity.
Stop loss set at as close as you can get prior to liquidation, triggering on the index price.

I'll post entry price, liquidation price, margin level, changes to margin level/increases to position, and ROE upon exit.

Goal is 1 BTC prior to the end of the charting period.

I'm probably gonna get rekt... again... but at least this time it'll be slightly entertaining, hopefully.

To start things off:

Entry: 7228 Contracts at $6222.7754
Margin Level: 100x
Liq. Price: $6192.5
Stop Loss: $6198.0

Trade closed manually

Closed at $6235.5

My spidey sense tells me we're about to curve back down to the trend line we're riding up, at around ~$6190. Stop loss might not have triggered if the pattern emerged on the 4hr sans wicks, but... always wicks... I'm going to sit it out until either 1) price makes a clean break upwards - $6275+ or 2) price hits the trendline and carves out a recognizable bottom.

Trade Starting Balance: 0.0123 XBT
Trade Ending Balance = 0.0139 XBT
Trade Result = 13.01% Profit
Cumulative Result = 13.01% Profit

Trade active

I just recognized a potentially bigger pattern, which if it pans out is going to come with a pretty big spike in price in the next few hours... I'm back in but with a very tight stop loss in case I'm wrong... In hind sight I should have started with lower level of margin, got over excited when I recognized the pattern... fml:

Entry Long: 7562 Contracts at $6233.2481
Margin Level: 100x
Liq. Price: $6202
Stop Loss: $6227

Note

stop loss changed to $6224, we're gonna cut it close...

Note

Pattern is confirmed if we stay above this black line on the 15min

Note

we've got movement up. my interim target is around ~6400. If the price does indeed stop there, I'm 50/50 whether I'd close out the trade or hold my position. I think it would depend a lot on whether the price looks like it just crashed into a brick wall or there was some cushion at the ceiling. If the price moves easily past 6400 then definitely holding my position. If we fail to make it to 6400 and the price action starts to look weak/no significant increase in volume/if we hit that brick wall, then close out position and wait for an opportunity to reenter using much smaller level of margin initially

Note

The pattern itself has moved past the point of no return (at least by my judgement of it), so it's going to complete one way or another, only variables now are how fast and how far. Should I have waited to reenter until I've determined this? Yes, yes I should have... What can I say? I'm learning as I go.

Note

I've changed the stop loss order to just above the entry price at $6234, in case I'm wrong.

Trade closed manually

closed... price action is getting nervous... we're at an incredibly dicey place on the chart. If we fall below the green trendline that caught us, we nosedive until we hit ~2000... there are no other significant supports, by my estimation anyway. I expected the move up to come with a bit more conviction, and volume to be honest. Right now, I'm seeing neither, and although the pattern is holding, I take back what I said about moving past the point of no return. I've actually lost 0.0004 XBT on the trade because of fees, although the trade closed higher than the opening price. I'm going to do what I should have done from the beginning and not go back in until the pattern is definitely confirmed... because if this pattern turns south, we drop like a rock...

Note

Placed a 1500 sell order at 6231.5, 50x... pattern failed

Note

still above the trendline... but that might change at any moment...

Note

short closed, long open, just going with my gut at this point: 3250 at 6202, 50x. Starting balance 0.0109. Stop loss at 6160...

Note

not just my gut... bulls are doing whatever they can to keep the price above the green trendline, which tells me that's the sweet spot. The trendline is the major resistance line from the previous bull run, turned support... if this line breaks, my guess is we just crash and keep crashing til 2k. Here's the zoomed out view of the trendline:

Note

resistance turned support... i hope...

Note

black line shows resistance turned support for the last bubble

Note

Here's an update

Note

kept dropping the stop loss - currently set at 6140, so thankfully it didn't trigger. so to recap:

Entry long: 3250 Contracts
Margin Level: 50x
Entry Prince: 6202.3197
Liq Price: $6111
Stop loss: $6140
Current Balance: 0.0109 XBT

Note

dear lord, please protect this rocket house and all those who reside in it...

Note

alright kiddies, let's go crazy, changes made to current position:

Margin bumped up to 100x
5650 contracts at 6196.5547
Liq. Price at 6160
Stop loss at 6175
Wallet Balance remains at 0.0106 XBT

Note

what the chart looks like right now:

Note

So I hope my developing trendline skillz prove to be accurate. If so, these are the resistance/support lines that I think BTC will bounce around for the rest of the year (so I wouldn't expect to see the price much higher than 11.5k, if that, by the end of 2018). Lots of decent trades to be made if one had the time and patience to keep on top of things as they develop (not saying I have either, but one can try...)

Note

I'll be maintaining position until we hit 6800. Once we pass 6300, I think the jump to 6800 will be fast and furious.

Note

we're moving at a slow but steady clip, which is good

Note

slow and steady + increasing volume = winner winner chicken dinner

Note

stop loss pushed up to 6192 and peacing out for the night.

Note

obviously I'm a horrible trader (maybe a decent gambler?) - retooled the position a bit, closed it at a slight profit, reentered and dropped the stop loss to follows:

Entry 6324, 100x at 6208.5
Liq Price 6178
Stop Loss 6185
Wallet Balance 0.0109 XBT

and... now really peacing out.

Note

tether finally blew up... this market is about to crash... target = $900 for btc. Good luck.

NTEC

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.