Four BTC mid-term scenarios
Hello folks,
This is my first published post here and I appreciate any kind of feedback. I've been trading for half a year only, but am constantly learning since 2017. I have a pretty good understanding of indicators but certainly lack experience still.
Some info before I start with my analysis:
- I often use the BitMex charts because they are interesting and BitMex is where I trade on.
- My favorite indicator is the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands indicator, which I sometimes use as the sole indicator to decide my entry and exit levels.
- Even though I'm pretty new to the field I did my homework and am a profitable trader since day 1.
----
Now on to my analysis:
This first simple chart shows four scenarios that I think could play out in the medium term. As most analysts realized, it's not really clear which direction BTC will go and doing guesswork on that is more gambling than analyzing imo.
However, as you can see from my chart, the alltime POC has made BTC lose momentum several times, apart from a few breakouts here and there, but it always returned to that level. I strongly believe that we need a very strong force to disrupt this market and push it into one or the other direction to leave the 'gravitational field' of 6400. The major challenge is to tell when a move is strong enough to make BTC lose its attachment to 6400. The tether move didn't suffice at all.
What I really do believe is the fact that downtrend lines are weaker than uptrend lines and bottom levels such as 5800 and 6200. This means that BTC has redefined downtrend lines with smaller ralleys over and over again throughout the past months, while the bottom was pretty stable. This is why I believe that short entries at those ceilings could end up pretty bad and should be approached carefully.
Looking at the volume, we see a drastic decline and we have reached extremely low levels by now. From what I learned, there are two scenarios for the volume that I can think of right now:
1. The volume spikes up like a madman or
2. The volume slowly shapes a U bottom, gaining traction over a long time and leading us into a new bullrun
For the time being, I don't have any opinion on the question which scenario is more likely.
The scenarios I described in my chart are the ones I look at right now. November could be the month that brings a decision with it, but it could very well extend into late December as well if BTC decides to go sideways, lose all volatility and drop along the edges of the downtrend lines. This could lead to BTC following the triangle until the point where there is nowhere else to run.
I'll prepare some really interesting charts, especially with FBB indications and long-term channels soon. Leave me a comment if you think that this kind of analysis is somehow valuable to you.
Much appreciated,
Patrick
This is my first published post here and I appreciate any kind of feedback. I've been trading for half a year only, but am constantly learning since 2017. I have a pretty good understanding of indicators but certainly lack experience still.
Some info before I start with my analysis:
- I often use the BitMex charts because they are interesting and BitMex is where I trade on.
- My favorite indicator is the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands indicator, which I sometimes use as the sole indicator to decide my entry and exit levels.
- Even though I'm pretty new to the field I did my homework and am a profitable trader since day 1.
----
Now on to my analysis:
This first simple chart shows four scenarios that I think could play out in the medium term. As most analysts realized, it's not really clear which direction BTC will go and doing guesswork on that is more gambling than analyzing imo.
However, as you can see from my chart, the alltime POC has made BTC lose momentum several times, apart from a few breakouts here and there, but it always returned to that level. I strongly believe that we need a very strong force to disrupt this market and push it into one or the other direction to leave the 'gravitational field' of 6400. The major challenge is to tell when a move is strong enough to make BTC lose its attachment to 6400. The tether move didn't suffice at all.
What I really do believe is the fact that downtrend lines are weaker than uptrend lines and bottom levels such as 5800 and 6200. This means that BTC has redefined downtrend lines with smaller ralleys over and over again throughout the past months, while the bottom was pretty stable. This is why I believe that short entries at those ceilings could end up pretty bad and should be approached carefully.
Looking at the volume, we see a drastic decline and we have reached extremely low levels by now. From what I learned, there are two scenarios for the volume that I can think of right now:
1. The volume spikes up like a madman or
2. The volume slowly shapes a U bottom, gaining traction over a long time and leading us into a new bullrun
For the time being, I don't have any opinion on the question which scenario is more likely.
The scenarios I described in my chart are the ones I look at right now. November could be the month that brings a decision with it, but it could very well extend into late December as well if BTC decides to go sideways, lose all volatility and drop along the edges of the downtrend lines. This could lead to BTC following the triangle until the point where there is nowhere else to run.
I'll prepare some really interesting charts, especially with FBB indications and long-term channels soon. Leave me a comment if you think that this kind of analysis is somehow valuable to you.
Much appreciated,
Patrick
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