BTC Retracement before Wave 3
Updated
With the latest dip we came down to around 7600 and nicely bounced in the long term golden pocket fib-zone which is a confluence zone of other resistance levels like the lower bound of the trend-channel from 2017 (see my longer term analysis "The bigger picture"), the downward trendline from 20k, the 61.8% fib-extension from our failed impulse wave into the ABC (for now) that we are currently in and some horizontal resistance around that area as well.
As I see it for now the bear flag earlier this week was an ABCDE (suggestions welcome, not sure about it as well) and what we just did is the first impulse wave down and retracing it at this moment, that means there will be 2 more impulse waves down, so beware with any crazy longs and keep your stop losses tight. There are others that see the bear flag as an ABC and count what I see as the D-E leg as a wave 1-2, but I do not like this count at all and as far as I know quite a few people got #rekt because they thought it's gonna bounce from 8200...but the leg down was not done yet. That would give my count some support. What do you guys think?
For now I'm still leaning bearish, the question is now how far will we retrace wave 1, there is some good resistance at the 8340 level, so we have to see if the bulls can push trough there. Technically it would be better if they don't and we go down from the 38.2% level, which would (based on the rule of alternation) give as a stronger retracement in wave 4 and consequently a more shallow wave 5.
As I see it for now the bear flag earlier this week was an ABCDE (suggestions welcome, not sure about it as well) and what we just did is the first impulse wave down and retracing it at this moment, that means there will be 2 more impulse waves down, so beware with any crazy longs and keep your stop losses tight. There are others that see the bear flag as an ABC and count what I see as the D-E leg as a wave 1-2, but I do not like this count at all and as far as I know quite a few people got #rekt because they thought it's gonna bounce from 8200...but the leg down was not done yet. That would give my count some support. What do you guys think?
For now I'm still leaning bearish, the question is now how far will we retrace wave 1, there is some good resistance at the 8340 level, so we have to see if the bulls can push trough there. Technically it would be better if they don't and we go down from the 38.2% level, which would (based on the rule of alternation) give as a stronger retracement in wave 4 and consequently a more shallow wave 5.
Note
This was actually pretty accurate in terms of retracement levels...
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