Short

Updated

$2939.70 The double bottom you should be looking for.

$2939.70 was the point the market decided to fight back during the height of the great China fud of 2017, crypto wrote off as dead, Bitcoin a thing only criminals used and China fearing decentralization did everything it could to shut the shop down, at $2939.70 the rest of the world shrugged it off and started a rally that would take us to levels nobody at the time could even conceive in such a short time-frame.

Fast forward one of the most brutal crypto winters of all time and we find ourselves just a stones throw from this target, will we hit it? will we hold it? the truth is I have no idea but what I do know is that we are in a classic elliot wave to the downside with low volume support and a strong potential for us to test down to these levels, the fact they are historical also increases the chances buyers will turn up here for at the least a bounce attempt, this in line with our respected channel gives me the confidence to enter this trade, let's see how we do.

Trade active

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Short update: Areas to watch & suggested new SL upon break of previous support on a closing basis. Notice how we now re-test these low's not with wicks like the last attempt, but with solid closes.

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Short Update: We continue to break previous support as we slowly grind down towards our historical bounce level, I have also identified the danger zone in which a failure to get back above after reaching our target, would result in further bearish continuation.

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Short Update: We just hit the previous double bottom retest zone and will be looking for a daily close below this area to confirm continuation down to the 1.272 fib area (the top of our target zone), most notable right now is that daily fib levels are hinting we could go lower still in the big picture, I'm looking for us to reset some indicators and take a short term bounce off my current target with the danger zone we must break marked on the chart, otherwise we are looking way down into the two thousands.

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Short Update: Previous double bottom support is broken pending a resistance retest but the price action continues to seek new lows, the daily BB lines up perfectly with our E target and will in my view result in a short term bounce to the retest zone if it is not tested before we reach this destination.

Following the retest I expect us to land directly into the Danger Zone with hopes we can use this area as base for an up-trend.

$2939.70 remains my ultimate wick / bounce target but if this area is broken the low 2k's are quickly into play, stay safe in and around that danger zone.

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Short Update: We have had a pretty lackluster bounce attempt play out into a bear flag, bulls will be looking to break the bottom wick of the previous double bottom to signal a rally to the top of our larger descending channel but on this low volume that seems unlikely, I'm expecting this to roll over to the downside and secure E fairly quickly.

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Short Update: We rejected on the first low time frame attempt at the previous double wick bottom support now turned resistance, a lower high rejection marked on the chart would confirm the move down to our target E.

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Short Update: The bulls turned up briefly to create liquidity out of the later shorters and established a perfect secondary short entry listed as the short's paradise on the chart. I had expected this range to take a few hours to reach the paradise but we have entirely rejected and now seem to be heading back to our destination.

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Short Update: Bulls turned out to attempt to secure the previous double bottom wick low of C but despite a valiant effort once again rolled over to the downside as shorts loaded up in the paradise zone, I now expect a deep stab down to E followed by a stagger down to the bottom of it's zonal base of $2939.70.

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Short Update: Bulls continue to sprint into resistance setting up short term scalp opportunities of around 7% a time, this has formed what I think is a Pennant continuation pattern here on the hourly time frame. I have to admit the current setup puts us in line for problems if we break to the upside as shorts would start to feel the pressure.

Traditionally mondays are bloody and this could just be the calm before the storm but it's time to be proactively protective of our short position and set our stop buys accordingly.

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Short Update: Not going to lie folks, that last rally from the bulls has put this short position under pressure, we find ourselves way back up in our stop loss zone and a better trader would of took profits for this bounce, that said I have a strategy and I'm going to stick with it for this trade.

My focus is this ongoing down-trend channel that has rejected the price at every step the entire way down, a clear break of this zone would invalidate this trade but a clear rejection would locked in sub $3,000 BTC.

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Short Update: Once again rejecting from the greater bear channel that has held in place since we left the $6,000 range we find ourselves putting in a 5 wave retracement seemingly breaking what had looked like a bull flag continuation on the hourly, now we look to establish a lower bear flag as we potentially push back towards the channel, failure here will likely result in a direct descent to the danger zone.

The danger zone is the area I have felt has the strongest ability to put a spanner in the works of the bigger short scenario that is on the table (the theory is that E is actually the bottom of a greater wave 3 and not a 5 at all, allowing for a much deeper correction in BTC down into the low 2ks). I consider the danger zone a proof or invalidation of this theory and we have already bounce from it twice, breaking it would be more than noteable.

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Short Update: Bear flags within bear flags within bear flags, bearception or bullish deception? let's see how this plays out.

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Short Update: Tapped D one last time with weakness to secure the path to death drop city. If we had any real volume at this point I would be worried of an invalidation of this overall down-trend line, since we don't, I'm frankly not.

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Short Update: Based on the price action and development of what seems to be a second bear-trend H&S (these are very rare) I'm extending my downside target another 22.8% down to the 1.2 fib extension on the daily.

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Short Update: Now entering the Danger Zone, so marked for it's strong potential as a reversal zone to the upside, I have as noted earlier extended my downside target to the 1.272 daily fib but will proceed with extreme caution as we continue to breakdown in this area.

I fully expect shorts to spike to ATH's if we break down our previous daily low.

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Short Update: We are now firmly in the Danger Zone, so marked because of it's unfavourable nature leading to shorts refusing to stack at this tenuous entry, longs are equally dead in the water in this zone.

Continued stagnation expected until we once again bump paths with our greater downtrend channel.

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PS: If I was a shit lord like 99% of the posters on TA I would of called "Target hit" when our low briefly touched the bottom of my original target and tucked my tail and claimed victory, that's not what I'm doing. Instead we have extended our target down to reflect what is really going on here. It's not about showing I'm "winning" for the sake of fake TV kudos, it's about showing what I'm really doing in the moment, right now.

This is about real money, real people, real targets. Not just some wick only an algo could pick up with a sniper rifle.

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Short Update: All hail El Bandito the great, our latest technical indicator shown on the chart, he never lies and he's already out of pesos so he's supporting our short as we continue to set record low's and the coin market cap extends to almost sub 100 billion for the first time since August 2017.

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Short Update: El Bandito made us worry yesterday for awhile yesterday in the danger zone but it turned out he was simply looking for his wife, El Senorita, the great short continues.

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Short Update: Mexican wave theory is quickly becoming all the rage across the BitMex telegram communities, I have even had fan art sent in to support the theory as El Wicholon defends the greater downtrend line as we continue to range awaiting price acceptance in this zone.

More downside ahead.

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Short Update: Let's get the pain out the way first, my secondary entry got blitz out at a stop on a small profit and we are back under pressure as we form what seem's to be a wave four, invalidating our previous count and lowering the potential wave 5 even further to the downside.

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Short Update: (Kind of) Forced to go long into the winds I took my short off the table at 3372.60 until 3688 when I closed up shop and sat on the sideline ready to make my next step.

I'm going short again from this area just as soon as the wind changes back, I think we have a bigger picture H&S in play here.

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Short Update: Amazed how often we are seeing these otherwise rare downtrend H&S play out. Signs of distribution here that indicate we are right to expect this to play out as a bearish continuation pattern. Shorts growing, longs falling off.

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Short Update: Very almost, nearly time to be bullish, I think we have one more twist of the knife before with a particularly nasty wick down before we get out of here but the road to recovery is back on the table.

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Short Update: Danger Zone retest on the cards before we impulse to resistance ahead of the final capitulation. Eyes on the prize.

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Short Update: Info on the chart.

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Short Update: Nothing much has changed to be honest, my targets are exactly the same. My short is still active and I have used the last weeks to add to my position. We continue down to the bottom of our wave 5 at Z.

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Short Update: Very zoomed in view of hour four hour chart, what I'm seeing is a major diagonal resistance that has been in play since the breakdown 6281 and confirmed again at the breakdown 4011 on the horizon.

I expect longs to get liquidated on this next move and then for us to try and climb back to 3572.20 before rejecting to lower lows.

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Short Update: Longs did ultimately end up getting liquidated as previously stated after a quick spike above the diagonal trend we had in our sights and now our TPs are in play as what was previously support becomes resistance and our volume profile continues to decline. $1800 is now on the table.

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Short Update: CME left a $60 gap that needed to be filled (or at least attempted), after the pause we can now continue on our path.

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Short Update: Strip it all back and make it simple. Bitfinex shorts vs longs continue to see a short reaction to this level as seen twice prior, we continue to breakdown indicating our fifth wave is about to begin, the path I'm following is on the chart.

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Short Update:

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Short Update: I still consider this entire move wave 1 of a larger 5 wave move down that can result in a ultimate #bearmarket bottom of around $1800 followed by weeks of 200 MA weekly resistance before a return to mean rally. This can take months. Chart is 0-1 & 1-2. , $XBT.

pbs.twimg.com/media/Dyeh1E5X0AAczK5.jpg:large

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Short Update: Let's strip it all back again and zoom out. Some might call this bearish euphoria, some might call it impossible, I'm just calling it how I see it.

Trade closed: target reached

As you can see I called the bottom here pretty accurately back in December 2018, it took until April 2019 to actually break out of my spring zone.

I have been dark the entire time since, but I just wanted to let y'all know I'm now calling the top is in on BTC. Maybe i'll chart it, maybe I won't.

Crypto winter won't be as long this time, 2 years tops. We'll be seeing 12k again. Best of luck to the folks who remember me. Closing this.

UnknownUnicorn1259785

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UnknownUnicorn1259785