Bitcoin in crazy mode again or only giving that impression?
Updated
Wow, this is not what i saw coming, seeing it rally this fast.
I mentioned several times, that this move up, would tell me if we have more long term bullish movement, or that it's simply an ABC up and continue trend down again.
The move up would depend on the strength of the current wave, to say if we are still in an uptrend or not. One would say, this is very strong, but i look at it differently. Just like at the sick rally to 13.8, where i kept mentioning, i don't trust it all. Same goes now, it went up TOO fast. I never trust rallies that don't have a good consolidation, because, that almost always it's a short squeeze.
Anyway, at this point, i really don't know what the next short term step will be. Still looks good and strong. But, since yesterday around 10700, kept seeing a 70 mil spoof buy order pushing the market. Together with the investigation on Bitmex since 2 weeks or so, volume dropped a lot there. During this nasty moves in the 9K zone, wicks up and down because order books were empty. Also a lot of capital left Bitmex past weeks. So instead of being neutral or bearish even, now we see the market pump again. Almost like at the 5K, with the Binance hack AND the Bitfinex issue the same week then. When after a few hours, price didn't panic dump more, mentioned that it started to feel like the whales would abuse that bearish news to squeeze out shorts and pump the market with their help.
So, because IMO we went up way to fast now, i get a similar feeling now. Volume on this rally is like 20/40% of the volume we had 2 months ago. Which normally is a bad sign for it's continuation. Problem is, because so much capital left Bitmex, it becomes easier to manipulate the price on that exchange now. I tried to give levels earlier, but it's quite meaningless. Could see some potential consolidations start, but they did not even complete half of it. So lower time frame, no much value to give levels now.
The chart you see here, was something i was looking at yesterday. Looking at past moves, trying to make sense of what was going on. I didn't post it yesterday, because i assumed nothing would happen until now and wanted to see what alts and Bitcoin would do in that half day. Now it's already here, so can't really judge if it has value or not. The shape has some value, but the level, can't say. I kept saying past weeks that 12k is the key level for me. But that was with the assumption to see a normal rally. 2 months ago, we had those parabolic shapes, this time it feels even more controlled in the shape of a channel. I think it's a real difference, but i simply can't judge how significant this difference is, since it's bit of a unique situation for me as well here.
So short term, i don't know. Bulls seem to be in full control.
Mid-term, don't trust it, but still to soon to judge. As long as we don't get a normal consolidation or something in the shape of it, i can't really judge what the next step might be.
Long term, also can't say yet. Mid-term plays a big part in this. Ideally for the bulls, we see a consolidation above 11kish coming week or 2 with alts starting to grow. Then i might become a bull as well.
For now, 10.800ish seems to be a first big level for this rally. 10.200 is a level that should not break anymore. Upside, 12.000ish is still a big level from what i can see.
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Previous analysis:
I mentioned several times, that this move up, would tell me if we have more long term bullish movement, or that it's simply an ABC up and continue trend down again.
The move up would depend on the strength of the current wave, to say if we are still in an uptrend or not. One would say, this is very strong, but i look at it differently. Just like at the sick rally to 13.8, where i kept mentioning, i don't trust it all. Same goes now, it went up TOO fast. I never trust rallies that don't have a good consolidation, because, that almost always it's a short squeeze.
Anyway, at this point, i really don't know what the next short term step will be. Still looks good and strong. But, since yesterday around 10700, kept seeing a 70 mil spoof buy order pushing the market. Together with the investigation on Bitmex since 2 weeks or so, volume dropped a lot there. During this nasty moves in the 9K zone, wicks up and down because order books were empty. Also a lot of capital left Bitmex past weeks. So instead of being neutral or bearish even, now we see the market pump again. Almost like at the 5K, with the Binance hack AND the Bitfinex issue the same week then. When after a few hours, price didn't panic dump more, mentioned that it started to feel like the whales would abuse that bearish news to squeeze out shorts and pump the market with their help.
So, because IMO we went up way to fast now, i get a similar feeling now. Volume on this rally is like 20/40% of the volume we had 2 months ago. Which normally is a bad sign for it's continuation. Problem is, because so much capital left Bitmex, it becomes easier to manipulate the price on that exchange now. I tried to give levels earlier, but it's quite meaningless. Could see some potential consolidations start, but they did not even complete half of it. So lower time frame, no much value to give levels now.
The chart you see here, was something i was looking at yesterday. Looking at past moves, trying to make sense of what was going on. I didn't post it yesterday, because i assumed nothing would happen until now and wanted to see what alts and Bitcoin would do in that half day. Now it's already here, so can't really judge if it has value or not. The shape has some value, but the level, can't say. I kept saying past weeks that 12k is the key level for me. But that was with the assumption to see a normal rally. 2 months ago, we had those parabolic shapes, this time it feels even more controlled in the shape of a channel. I think it's a real difference, but i simply can't judge how significant this difference is, since it's bit of a unique situation for me as well here.
So short term, i don't know. Bulls seem to be in full control.
Mid-term, don't trust it, but still to soon to judge. As long as we don't get a normal consolidation or something in the shape of it, i can't really judge what the next step might be.
Long term, also can't say yet. Mid-term plays a big part in this. Ideally for the bulls, we see a consolidation above 11kish coming week or 2 with alts starting to grow. Then i might become a bull as well.
For now, 10.800ish seems to be a first big level for this rally. 10.200 is a level that should not break anymore. Upside, 12.000ish is still a big level from what i can see.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Bitcoin analysis, bigger picture from month ago
Note
Only sense i can make of this, is this possible triangle. Even if we break down, several support levels where price can come up again. A straight dump is unlikely here. So even in a bearish scenario, think we will see at least a higher or lower low, like the blue lines. That is usually the case at least. Also seem to have a trend line now for this move up, think that will have some value at least.
Also that thick trend line, which i used past weeks and assumed would have some weight, broke very easily as well. This is a bullish sign. Hope to see some shapes coming day or 2, which lets me give clearer levels and make some predictions. At this point, i can't expect for what i just mentioned
Note
Now we have a little more to go on. A break up so far, but eventually creating a bull trap. Volume down was bigger than on the way up, but the size of the drop was bigger. So we need to see how the next 12 hours go. If they continue down again, break another support (11400) with volume increasing, than quite sure the high is set.When looking at the daily candle now, it's a bad one. But still 12 hours to change that though, so still open minded. 11.600ish is a support, but think if 11.400ish breaks, it might be game over already. Then still room for a move up to form a lower high, but think no more than that. So will be an important 12 hours now i think.
Note
New Bitcoin analysis:
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